PRIM · Industrials(water, sewer, pipeline, comm & power line construction) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Primoris Services Corp reported revenue of $7.6 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 13.7% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin held steady at about 5.4% from 2017, and it earned 13.7% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $2.1 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 89.9% went to acquisitions and 44.9% back into the business; the share count rose 5.9%. On the accounting screens, it passes 6 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 3.02 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; none of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 20257.6B+13.7% a year over 9 years
Operating margin5.4%gross margin 10.7%
Return on invested capital13.7%9.5% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay319.9M4.2% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDANet cash65.6M more cash than debt
Piotroski F-score6/9tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
02.0B4.0B6.0B8.0B
2017Revenue 2.4BOperating income 106.3M
2018Revenue 2.9BOperating income 130.5M
2019Revenue 3.1BOperating income 140.9M
2020Revenue 3.5BOperating income 163.9M
2021
2021Revenue 3.5BOperating income 170.2M
2022Revenue 4.4BOperating income 195.3M
2023Revenue 5.7BOperating income 253.1M
2024Revenue 6.4BOperating income 317.4M
2025Revenue 7.6BOperating income 411.5M
2017201820192020202120212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+19.7%
—
+13.7%
Operating income
+28.2%
—
+16.2%
Net income
+27.4%
—
+16.0%
Earnings per share
+26.6%
—
+15.2%
Free cash flow per share
—
—
+12.8%
Dividend per share
+9.9%
—
+4.2%
Shares
+0.6%
—
+0.6%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 9.0%
0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%
2017Return on invested capital 9.4%
2018Return on invested capital 10.3%
2019Return on invested capital 10.2%
2020Return on invested capital 11.5%
2021
2021Return on invested capital 7.9%
2022Return on invested capital 7.2%
2023Return on invested capital 8.2%
2024Return on invested capital 10.5%
2025Return on invested capital 13.7%
2017201820192020202120212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-50.0M050.0M100.0M150.0M
2017Economic profit 3.8M
2018Economic profit 13.1M
2019Economic profit 12.3M
2020Economic profit 25.4M
2021
2021Economic profit -18.8M
2022Economic profit -39.4M
2023Economic profit -17.6M
2024Economic profit 32.5M
2025Economic profit 101.2M
2017201820192020202120212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
16.4%
Return on assets
6.2%
Asset turnover
1.72×
Overheads (SG&A)
5.3% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-200.0M0200.0M400.0M
2017Net income 72.4MFree cash flow 109.2MAfter stock-based pay 108.0M
2018Net income 77.5MFree cash flow 16.6MAfter stock-based pay 15.4M
2019Net income 82.3MFree cash flow 24.5MAfter stock-based pay 22.9M
2020Net income 105.0MFree cash flow 248.6MAfter stock-based pay 246.4M
2021
2021Net income 115.7MFree cash flow -54.1MAfter stock-based pay -64.6M
2022Net income 133.0MFree cash flow -11.3MAfter stock-based pay -18.8M
2023Net income 126.1MFree cash flow 95.5MAfter stock-based pay 83.7M
2024Net income 180.9MFree cash flow 381.8MAfter stock-based pay 366.7M
2025Net income 274.9MFree cash flow 340.5MAfter stock-based pay 319.9M
2017201820192020202120212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2017–2025
2.1B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 45%936.8M
Acquisitions 90%1.9B
Dividends 6%115.8M
Share buybacks 3%57.2M
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -43%-898.0M
Over the same years it paid 71.6M in stock. The share count rose 5.9%. The buybacks did not even cover what was handed out in stock.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$-2.50$0.00$2.50$5.00$7.50
2017Earnings per share $1.40Free cash flow per share $2.11Dividend per share $0.22
2018Earnings per share $1.50Free cash flow per share $0.32Dividend per share $0.24
2019Earnings per share $1.61Free cash flow per share $0.48Dividend per share $0.24
2020Earnings per share $2.16Free cash flow per share $5.11Dividend per share $0.24
2021
2021Earnings per share $2.18Free cash flow per share $-1.02Dividend per share $0.24
2022Earnings per share $2.47Free cash flow per share $-0.21Dividend per share $0.24
2023Earnings per share $2.33Free cash flow per share $1.76Dividend per share $0.24
2024Earnings per share $3.31Free cash flow per share $6.99Dividend per share $0.24
2025Earnings per share $5.02Free cash flow per share $6.21Dividend per share $0.32
2017201820192020202120212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
48.0M50.0M52.0M54.0M56.0M
2017Diluted shares 51.7M
2018Diluted shares 51.7M
2019Diluted shares 51.1M
2020Diluted shares 48.6M
2021
2021Diluted shares 53.2M
2022Diluted shares 53.8M
2023Diluted shares 54.2M
2024Diluted shares 54.6M
2025Diluted shares 54.8M
2017201820192020202120212022202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
-250.0M0250.0M500.0M750.0M1.0B
2017Net debt 88.4M
2018Net debt 217.1M
2019Net debt 231.0M
2020Net debt -10.2M
2021
2021Net debt 460.9M
2022Net debt 894.8M
2023Net debt 740.5M
2024Net debt 279.0M
2025Net debt -65.6M
2017201820192020202120212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
-0.1×
Interest coverage
— operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.26 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
— collects in 35d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
6of 9 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
✕No new sharesShare count did not growfailed
✕Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforefailed
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
3.02safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.11 × 6.56+0.72
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.31 × 3.26+1.02
Operating income ÷ assets 0.09 × 6.72+0.63
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.62 × 1.05+0.65
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.71below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 0.73+0.67
Gross margin slipping 1.03+0.54
Soft assets 0.95+0.38
Sales growth 1.19+1.06
Slower depreciation 1.11+0.13
Overheads vs sales 0.88-0.15
Profit not in cash -0.04-0.21
Leverage rising 0.92-0.30
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
None of the six cross-checks fires for the latest year: receivables and inventory move with revenue, profit turns into cash, investment keeps up with depreciation, the tax rate is ordinary and debt is moderate.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$176.89discounted at 9.0% a year · 60% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
35.3×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
19.1×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
1.3×
Free cash flow yield
3.3%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today3.8B
Everything after, today5.8B
The whole business9.6B
Plus net cash65.6M
What belongs to shareholders9.7B
Divided among 54.8M shares: <strong>$176.89</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-250.0M0250.0M500.0M750.0M1.0B
2017Reported 108.0M
2018Reported 15.4M
2019Reported 22.9M
2020Reported 246.4M
2021
2021Reported -64.6M
2022Reported -18.8M
2023Reported 83.7M
2024Reported 366.7M
2025Reported 319.9M
2026Projected 344.7M
2027Projected 411.5M
2028Projected 482.6M
2029Projected 555.8M
2030Projected 628.3M
2031Projected 697.1M
2032Projected 758.7M
2033Projected 809.7M
2034Projected 847.0M
2035Projected 868.2M
2017201920212022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
9.2B
11.0B
12.9B
14.8B
16.8B
18.6B
20.3B
21.6B
22.6B
23.2B
Growth
21.5%
19.4%
17.3%
15.2%
13.1%
10.9%
8.8%
6.7%
4.6%
2.5%
Cash margin
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
3.7%
Free cash flow
344.7M
411.5M
482.6M
555.8M
628.3M
697.1M
758.7M
809.7M
847.0M
868.2M
Worth today
316.2M
346.4M
372.7M
393.8M
408.5M
415.8M
415.2M
406.6M
390.3M
367.0M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
8.0%
183
196
212
231
253
8.5%
169
180
193
208
227
9.0%
157
166
177
190
205
9.5%
146
154
163
174
186
10.0%
136
143
151
160
171
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
17.5%
19.5%
21.5%
23.5%
25.5%
3.0%
127
137
148
160
172
3.4%
139
150
162
175
189
3.7%
151
164
177
191
206
4.1%
164
177
191
207
223
4.5%
176
190
206
222
240
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$77.21
Median$176.90
90th percentile$304.68
$0.00$200.00$400.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$121.80</b> and <b>$237.72</b>; one in ten below $77.21, one in ten above $304.68.
Does the long run make sense?
8.9×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 8.9 times that year's EBITDA.
67%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 4% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 67% on the new capital — it has earned 9% on average over the last five years.
60%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 5 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market—none in the period
Under pre-arranged plans—of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.