What money costs, at every horizon.
The US Treasury's yield curve as it publishes it, every inversion since 2016, what the bond market prices in for inflation, and what companies pay over the Treasury to borrow — each figure with its date and its source.
- 10-year minus 2-yearCurve slope
How much more the 10-year Treasury pays than the 2-year, in percentage points: positive is the usual shape, negative is an inverted curve.
How this one is computedThe 10-year par yield minus the 2-year par yield, both from the Treasury's daily curve on the same day; the 10-year minus the 3-month is shown beside it. An inversion is counted when the slope stays below zero for at least five sessions in a row, so a day or two of noise around zero is not an episode.
Where it misleadsAn inverted curve has come before several US recessions, but the gap between the two has ranged from months to years, and inversions have also ended with none. It describes what money costs today at two horizons; it is not a forecast of anything.
Learn it with a worked example › - +0.36
- Inflation priced in, 10 yearsInflation priced in
The average inflation the bond market prices over the next ten years: the nominal 10-year yield minus the real one.
How this one is computedComputed here from the Treasury's two curves on the same day (nominal 10-year minus TIPS 10-year), rather than imported from a third-party series.
Where it misleadsIt is a price, not a forecast: it also carries a premium for the uncertainty itself and for how easily each bond trades, so it can move without any change in what anyone expects inflation to be.
Learn it with a worked example › - 2.34%
- Corporate credit spreadExcess bond premium
The part of what US companies pay to borrow over a Treasury bond that their own default risk does not explain: how much the bond market is charging for credit risk as such.
How this one is computedPublished monthly by Federal Reserve Board staff, with Gilchrist and Zakrajšek's method: the average spread of US corporate bonds over Treasuries with the same payments, minus the part each company's measured default risk would predict. Stored here as published, from 1973, and replaced whole on every update because the Board revises the entire history.
Where it misleadsIt is a research series, not an official statistic: every new month can revise past values, so the figure for a given month can differ from the one shown a month ago. A high premium has coincided with tighter credit in the past; it says what lenders charged, not what happens next.
Learn it with a worked example › - 0.84
points: the long end pays more, the usual shape
nominal 5.17% minus real 2.83%
points over the Treasury, Jul 2026
The yield the US Treasury pays at each maturity, from one month to thirty years, on one day.
How this one is computedThe Treasury's daily par yield curve, as it publishes it; the slope shown is the 10-year yield minus the 2-year, and the inflation priced in is the nominal 10-year minus the real (TIPS) 10-year.
Where it misleadsAn inverted curve (short yields above long) has preceded several recessions, but it is not a forecast and its timing has varied by years. The curve says what money costs today at each horizon; what happens next is not in it.
Learn it with a worked example ›On 25 Sep 2026 the Treasury paid 4.24% at three months, 4.81% at two years and 5.17% at ten years. The 10-year pays 0.36 points more than the 2-year: the usual shape, where lending for longer pays more. The last inversion ran from 6 Jul 2022 to 26 Aug 2024: 537 sessions.
The slope, since 2016
How much more the 10-year Treasury pays than the 2-year, in percentage points: positive is the usual shape, negative is an inverted curve.
How this one is computedThe 10-year par yield minus the 2-year par yield, both from the Treasury's daily curve on the same day; the 10-year minus the 3-month is shown beside it. An inversion is counted when the slope stays below zero for at least five sessions in a row, so a day or two of noise around zero is not an episode.
Where it misleadsAn inverted curve has come before several US recessions, but the gap between the two has ranged from months to years, and inversions have also ended with none. It describes what money costs today at two horizons; it is not a forecast of anything.
Learn it with a worked example ›The 10-year yield minus the 2-year and minus the 3-month, every trading day. Shaded: each stretch of a week or more in which the 10-year paid less than the 2-year.
- Inversions since 2016
- 1
- Share of days inverted
- 20%
- The longest
- 537 sessions
- The deepest
- -1.08
6 Jul 2022 – 26 Aug 2024
3 Jul 2023
An inverted curve has come before several US recessions, but the gap between the two has ranged from months to years, and inversions have also ended with none. It describes what money costs at two horizons today; it does not say what comes next.
The 10-year, nominal and real
The yield of an inflation-protected Treasury bond: what money pays over ten years once inflation is taken out.
How this one is computedThe Treasury's daily real yield curve (TIPS), 10-year point; a holding's figure against it is its average move per +0.10 points of that yield, measured on two years of daily prices like the rate sensitivity.
Where it misleadsGold and real yields have often moved in opposite directions, because holding gold costs what a real bond would have paid; but the relationship has broken for long stretches, so read the R² and the window, never the sign alone.
Learn it with a worked example ›What the 10-year Treasury pays, and what its inflation-protected twin pays above inflation. The distance between the two lines is the inflation the bond market prices in over the next ten years.
At 5.17%, the 10-year is at or above 100% of the trading days since 4 Jan 2016. Its lowest was 0.52% on 4 Aug 2020; its highest, 5.18% on 24 Sep 2026.
| Maturity | Nominal | Real (inflation-protected) | Inflation priced in |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 years | 4.98% | 2.64% | 2.34% |
| 7 years | 5.06% | 2.73% | 2.33% |
| 10 years | 5.17% | 2.83% | 2.34% |
| 20 years | 5.54% | 3.08% | 2.46% |
| 30 years | 5.49% | 3.22% | 2.27% |
Corporate credit, since 1973
The part of what US companies pay to borrow over a Treasury bond that their own default risk does not explain: how much the bond market is charging for credit risk as such.
How this one is computedPublished monthly by Federal Reserve Board staff, with Gilchrist and Zakrajšek's method: the average spread of US corporate bonds over Treasuries with the same payments, minus the part each company's measured default risk would predict. Stored here as published, from 1973, and replaced whole on every update because the Board revises the entire history.
Where it misleadsIt is a research series, not an official statistic: every new month can revise past values, so the figure for a given month can differ from the one shown a month ago. A high premium has coincided with tighter credit in the past; it says what lenders charged, not what happens next.
Learn it with a worked example ›How much more US companies pay to borrow than a Treasury bond with the same payments (the Gilchrist–Zakrajšek spread), and the part of it their own default risk does not explain (the excess bond premium). Monthly, from Federal Reserve Board staff.
- Credit spread, Jul 2026
- 0.84
- Excess bond premium
- -0.32
- Where the spread sits
- 5%
- The highest
- 7.84
-0.08 points over a year
default risk alone would predict 1.16
of months since 1973 were at or below it
Nov 2008
A research series, not an official statistic: Board staff can revise the whole history when they publish a new month, so a past value on this page can change. It is replaced whole on every update, never patched.
Your portfolio against these rates
Signed in, your own portfolio appears here: how it moved on the days the 10-year yield moved, measured on your own prices, and how much of it sits in bond funds.
Each measure, explained
Sources: the U.S. Department of the Treasury's daily par yield curve rates, nominal and real (public domain), and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System's Gilchrist–Zakrajšek spread and excess bond premium (FEDS Notes). Read once a day. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy or sell anything. treasury.gov ↗ · federalreserve.gov ↗