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Inflation priced in

The average inflation the bond market prices over the next ten years: the nominal 10-year yield minus the real one.

As published, 25 Sep 2026 2.34%

Signed in, this page is worked on your own portfolio: your peak, your trough, your figure. Sign in ›

How it is computed here

Computed here from the Treasury's two curves on the same day (nominal 10-year minus TIPS 10-year), rather than imported from a third-party series.

Worked example

  1. On 25 Sep 2026 the 10-year Treasury paid 5.17% and the 10-year inflation-protected Treasury 2.83% above inflation.
  2. 5.17% − 2.83% = 2.34%: the average yearly inflation that would make the two bonds pay the same.

The market's own figures, as the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve Board publish them, read once a day — the same for every reader. They describe that date; nothing here says what comes next. All of them on one page ›

Where it misleads

It is a price, not a forecast: it also carries a premium for the uncertainty itself and for how easily each bond trades, so it can move without any change in what anyone expects inflation to be.

Rates and credit