Yield curve
The yield the US Treasury pays at each maturity, from one month to thirty years, on one day.
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How it is computed here
The Treasury's daily par yield curve, as it publishes it; the slope shown is the 10-year yield minus the 2-year, and the inflation priced in is the nominal 10-year minus the real (TIPS) 10-year.
Worked example
- On 25 Sep 2026 the Treasury paid 4.24% at three months, 4.81% at two years and 5.17% at ten years.
- The slope, 10-year minus 2-year, is 0.36 points; negative would mean an inverted curve.
The market's own figures, as the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve Board publish them, read once a day — the same for every reader. They describe that date; nothing here says what comes next. All of them on one page ›
Where it misleads
An inverted curve (short yields above long) has preceded several recessions, but it is not a forecast and its timing has varied by years. The curve says what money costs today at each horizon; what happens next is not in it.