Curve slope
How much more the 10-year Treasury pays than the 2-year, in percentage points: positive is the usual shape, negative is an inverted curve.
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How it is computed here
The 10-year par yield minus the 2-year par yield, both from the Treasury's daily curve on the same day; the 10-year minus the 3-month is shown beside it. An inversion is counted when the slope stays below zero for at least five sessions in a row, so a day or two of noise around zero is not an episode.
Worked example
- On 25 Sep 2026 the 10-year Treasury paid 5.17% and the 2-year 4.81%.
- 5.17% − 4.81% = +0.36 points: the long end pays more, the usual shape.
- Since 2016 the curve has been inverted in 1 stretches of a week or more; the longest ran from 6 Jul 2022 to 26 Aug 2024, 537 sessions.
The market's own figures, as the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve Board publish them, read once a day — the same for every reader. They describe that date; nothing here says what comes next. All of them on one page ›
Where it misleads
An inverted curve has come before several US recessions, but the gap between the two has ranged from months to years, and inversions have also ended with none. It describes what money costs today at two horizons; it is not a forecast of anything.