DY · Industrials(water, sewer, pipeline, comm & power line construction) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2026-01-31
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Dycom Industries Inc reported revenue of $5.5 billion in fiscal 2026. Of the $2.3 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 85.5% went to acquisitions and 61.7% back into the business; the share count fell 5.7%. On the accounting screens, it passes 4 of 8 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 3.68 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; none of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 20265.5B
Operating margin7.8%gross margin —
Return on invested capital7.1%9.8% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay367.2M6.6% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA3.0×net debt 2.1B
Piotroski F-score4/8tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
02.0B4.0B6.0B
2018
2018
2019Revenue 3.1BOperating income 132.4M
2020Revenue 3.3BOperating income 129.4M
2021Revenue 3.2BOperating income 88.9M
2022Revenue 3.1BOperating income 85.9M
2023Revenue 3.8BOperating income 220.7M
2024Revenue 4.2BOperating income 344.6M
2025Revenue 4.7BOperating income 368.8M
2026Revenue 5.5BOperating income 434.4M
2018201820192020202120222023202420252026
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+13.3%
+11.6%
—
Operating income
+25.3%
+37.3%
—
Net income
+25.5%
+52.3%
—
Earnings per share
+26.3%
+54.9%
—
Free cash flow per share
—
+6.2%
—
Shares
-0.6%
-1.7%
-0.6%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
GrossOperatingNetFree cash flow
-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%
2018
2018
2019Operating 4.2%Net 2.0%Free cash flow -1.3%
2020Operating 3.9%Net 1.7%Free cash flow -1.9%
2021Operating 2.8%Net 1.1%Free cash flow 10.1%
2022Operating 2.7%Net 1.6%Free cash flow 4.8%
2023Operating 5.8%Net 3.7%Free cash flow -0.9%
2024Operating 8.3%Net 5.2%Free cash flow 1.0%
2025Operating 7.8%Net 5.0%Free cash flow 2.1%
2026Operating 7.8%Net 5.1%Free cash flow 7.2%
2018201820192020202120222023202420252026
Return on invested capital
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 6.4%
0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%
2018
2018
2019Return on invested capital 5.6%
2020Return on invested capital 5.4%
2021Return on invested capital 3.7%
2022Return on invested capital 4.9%
2023Return on invested capital 10.3%
2024Return on invested capital 13.9%
2025Return on invested capital 12.8%
2026Return on invested capital 7.1%
2018201820192020202120222023202420252026
Economic profit
Economic profit
-50.0M050.0M100.0M150.0M
2018
2018
2019Economic profit -13.2M
2020Economic profit -17.2M
2021Economic profit -38.1M
2022Economic profit -23.7M
2023Economic profit 65.5M
2024Economic profit 138.6M
2025Economic profit 139.4M
2026Economic profit 31.7M
2018201820192020202120222023202420252026
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
15.1%
Return on assets
4.7%
Asset turnover
0.93×
Overheads (SG&A)
8.0% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-200.0M0200.0M400.0M600.0M
2018
2018
2019Net income 62.9MFree cash flow -40.5MAfter stock-based pay -60.7M
2020Net income 57.2MFree cash flow -62.6MAfter stock-based pay -72.6M
2021Net income 34.3MFree cash flow 323.7MAfter stock-based pay 311.0M
2022Net income 48.6MFree cash flow 151.6MAfter stock-based pay 141.7M
2023Net income 142.2MFree cash flow -36.2MAfter stock-based pay -54.1M
2024Net income 218.9MFree cash flow 40.5MAfter stock-based pay 15.0M
2025Net income 233.4MFree cash flow 98.6MAfter stock-based pay 58.3M
2026Net income 281.2MFree cash flow 401.7MAfter stock-based pay 367.2M
2018201820192020202120222023202420252026
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2018–2026
2.3B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 62%1.4B
Acquisitions 86%2.0B
Dividends 0%0
Share buybacks 17%400.3M
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -65%-1.5B
Over the same years it paid 171.0M in stock. The share count fell 5.7%. 229.3M of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$-5.00$0.00$5.00$10.00$15.00
2018
2018
2019Earnings per share $1.97Free cash flow per share $-1.27
2020Earnings per share $1.80Free cash flow per share $-1.97
2021Earnings per share $1.07Free cash flow per share $10.09
2022Earnings per share $1.57Free cash flow per share $4.92
2023Earnings per share $4.74Free cash flow per share $-1.21
2024Earnings per share $7.37Free cash flow per share $1.36
2025Earnings per share $7.92Free cash flow per share $3.35
2026Earnings per share $9.56Free cash flow per share $13.65
2018201820192020202120222023202420252026
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
29.0M30.0M31.0M32.0M33.0M
2018Diluted shares 31.2M
2018
2019Diluted shares 32.0M
2020Diluted shares 31.8M
2021Diluted shares 32.1M
2022Diluted shares 30.8M
2023Diluted shares 30.0M
2024Diluted shares 29.7M
2025Diluted shares 29.5M
2026Diluted shares 29.4M
2018201820192020202120222023202420252026
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
01.0B2.0B3.0B
2018Net debt 676.3M
2018
2019Net debt 744.9M
2020Net debt 812.3M
2021Net debt 571.5M
2022Net debt 530.0M
2023Net debt 600.7M
2024Net debt 707.8M
2025Net debt 850.5M
2026Net debt 2.1B
2018201820192020202120222023202420252026
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
3.0×
Interest coverage
7× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
2.74 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
— collects in 112d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
4of 8 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✕Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellfailed
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
–Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
3.68safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.29 × 6.56+1.92
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.25 × 3.26+0.80
Operating income ÷ assets 0.07 × 6.72+0.49
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.45 × 1.05+0.47
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.31below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.05+0.96
Gross margin slipping 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.53
Soft assets 1.84+0.74
Sales growth 1.18+1.05
Slower depreciation 0.84+0.10
Overheads vs sales 0.96-0.17
Profit not in cash -0.06-0.28
Leverage rising 1.24-0.40
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
None of the six cross-checks fires for the latest year: receivables and inventory move with revenue, profit turns into cash, investment keeps up with depreciation, the tax rate is ordinary and debt is moderate.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$98.55discounted at 6.4% a year · 71% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
10.3×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
7.1×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
0.9×
Free cash flow yield
12.7%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today1.4B
Everything after, today3.6B
The whole business5.0B
Minus net debt-2.1B
What belongs to shareholders2.9B
Divided among 29.4M shares: <strong>$98.55</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-200.0M0200.0M400.0M
2018
2018
2019Reported -60.7M
2020Reported -72.6M
2021Reported 311.0M
2022Reported 141.7M
2023Reported -54.1M
2024Reported 15.0M
2025Reported 58.3M
2026Reported 367.2M
2027Projected 144.7M
2028Projected 159.9M
2029Projected 175.1M
2030Projected 190.0M
2031Projected 204.2M
2032Projected 217.5M
2033Projected 229.4M
2034Projected 239.8M
2035Projected 248.1M
2036Projected 254.4M
2018201920212023202520272029203120332035
Year by year
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
Revenue
6.2B
6.8B
7.5B
8.1B
8.7B
9.3B
9.8B
10.2B
10.6B
10.9B
Growth
11.5%
10.5%
9.5%
8.5%
7.5%
6.5%
5.5%
4.5%
3.5%
2.5%
Cash margin
2.3%
2.3%
2.3%
2.3%
2.3%
2.3%
2.3%
2.3%
2.3%
2.3%
Free cash flow
144.7M
159.9M
175.1M
190.0M
204.2M
217.5M
229.4M
239.8M
248.1M
254.4M
Worth today
136.0M
141.2M
145.2M
148.1M
149.6M
149.7M
148.4M
145.7M
141.7M
136.5M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
5.4%
105
128
158
202
267
5.9%
84
101
124
154
197
6.4%
68
81
99
121
150
6.9%
54
65
79
95
117
7.4%
43
52
63
76
92
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
7.5%
9.5%
11.5%
13.5%
15.5%
1.9%
47
57
69
81
94
2.1%
60
71
84
98
112
2.3%
72
85
99
114
130
2.6%
84
98
113
129
147
2.8%
97
112
128
146
165
All the inputs moving at once
4,969 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$-60.43
Median$98.01
90th percentile$320.52
$0.00$250.00$500.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$11.54</b> and <b>$196.95</b>; one in ten below $-60.43, one in ten above $320.52.
Does the long run make sense?
4.8×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 4.8 times that year's EBITDA.
4%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 61% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 4% on the new capital — it has earned 10% on average over the last five years.
71%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 6 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market$551,3073 purchase(s) by 3 insider(s)
Sold on the open market—none in the period
Under pre-arranged plans—of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.