DBRG · Financials(investment advice) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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DigitalBridge Group, Inc. reported revenue of $94.0 million in fiscal 2025, after shrinking 21.6% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin narrowed from 55.5% in 2016 to 0.6%, and it earned 0.0% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $2.8 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 46.7% went to dividends and 26.0% to buybacks; the share count rose 42.4%. On the accounting screens, it passes 4 of 7 Piotroski tests; 2 of the six cross-checks between its statements fire.
Revenue, fiscal 202594.0M-21.6% a year over 9 years
Operating margin0.6%gross margin —
Return on invested capital0.0%5.7% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay223.8M238.1% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDANet cash83.7M more cash than debt
Piotroski F-score4/7tests of improvement passed
Share counts are in today's shares. The SEC's filings restate only recent years after a split, so these jumps were read as splits and the older years scaled to match — otherwise per-share figures would compare different units:
1-for-4 before fiscal 2020; 3-for-1 before fiscal 2017.
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
-1.0B01.0B2.0B3.0B
2016Revenue 838.9MOperating income 465.6M
2017Revenue 2.5BOperating income 315.7M
2018Revenue 1.2BOperating income -133.5M
2019Revenue 61.0MOperating income -518.9M
2020Revenue 416.4MOperating income -517.3M
2021Revenue 387.8MOperating income 130.9M
2022Revenue 694.8MOperating income -3.8M
2023Revenue 821.4MOperating income 390.2M
2024Revenue 607.0MOperating income 185.3M
2025Revenue 94.0MOperating income 588,000
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
-48.7%
-25.8%
-21.6%
Operating income
—
—
-52.4%
Net income
—
—
+2.3%
Earnings per share
—
—
-1.6%
Free cash flow per share
-4.8%
—
—
Dividend per share
+56.6%
-46.2%
-32.9%
Shares
+4.4%
+8.2%
+4.0%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
GrossOperatingNetFree cash flow
-2000.0%-1500.0%-1000.0%-500.0%0.0%500.0%
2016Operating 55.5%Net 13.7%
2017Operating 12.4%Net -7.8%
2018Operating -11.4%Net -44.3%
2019Operating -850.2%Net -1718.4%
2020Operating -124.2%Net -642.5%
2021Operating 33.8%Net -80.0%Free cash flow 64.0%
2022Operating -0.5%Net -46.3%Free cash flow 37.8%
2023Operating 47.5%Net 22.6%Free cash flow 28.4%
2024Operating 30.5%Net 11.6%Free cash flow 9.3%
2025Operating 0.6%Net 151.0%Free cash flow 274.6%
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Return on invested capital
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 9.6%
-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%
2016Return on invested capital 7.1%
2017Return on invested capital 2.4%
2018Return on invested capital -0.9%
2019Return on invested capital -4.9%
2020Return on invested capital -8.6%
2021Return on invested capital 2.6%
2022Return on invested capital -0.2%
2023Return on invested capital 17.9%
2024Return on invested capital 8.1%
2025Return on invested capital 0.0%
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-2.0B-1.5B-1.0B-500.0M0500.0M
2016Economic profit -167.5M
2017Economic profit -1.4B
2018Economic profit -1.7B
2019Economic profit -1.6B
2020Economic profit -1.2B
2021Economic profit -494.3M
2022Economic profit -219.8M
2023Economic profit 179.7M
2024Economic profit -35.3M
2025Economic profit -231.1M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
6.7%
Return on assets
4.1%
Asset turnover
0.03×
Overheads (SG&A)
68.4% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-3.0B-2.0B-1.0B01.0B
2016Net income 115.3M
2017Net income -197.9M
2018Net income -519.6M
2019Net income -1.0B
2020Net income -2.7B
2021Net income -310.1MFree cash flow 248.2MAfter stock-based pay 188.8M
2022Net income -321.8MFree cash flow 262.6MAfter stock-based pay 207.9M
2023Net income 185.3MFree cash flow 233.6MAfter stock-based pay 166.0M
2024Net income 70.5MFree cash flow 56.5MAfter stock-based pay 21.8M
2025Net income 141.9MFree cash flow 258.0MAfter stock-based pay 223.8M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025
2.8B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 0%4.9M
Acquisitions 13%369.9M
Dividends 47%1.3B
Share buybacks 26%733.8M
Kept, or used to pay down debt 14%394.2M
Over the same years it paid 535.2M in stock. The share count rose 42.4%. 198.6M of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$-30.00$-20.00$-10.00$0.00$10.00
2016Earnings per share $0.93Dividend per share $1.47
2017Earnings per share $-1.49Dividend per share $3.62
2018Earnings per share $-4.18Dividend per share $2.50
2019Earnings per share $-8.75Dividend per share $1.79
2020Earnings per share $-22.60Dividend per share $0.90
2021Earnings per share $-2.52Free cash flow per share $2.02Dividend per share $0.00
2022Earnings per share $-2.08Free cash flow per share $1.70Dividend per share $0.01
2023Earnings per share $1.09Free cash flow per share $1.38Dividend per share $0.04
2024Earnings per share $0.42Free cash flow per share $0.33Dividend per share $0.04
2025Earnings per share $0.81Free cash flow per share $1.47Dividend per share $0.04
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
100.0M120.0M140.0M160.0M180.0M
2016Diluted shares 123.4M
2017Diluted shares 133.2M
2018Diluted shares 124.2M
2019Diluted shares 119.9M
2020Diluted shares 118.4M
2021Diluted shares 122.9M
2022Diluted shares 154.5M
2023Diluted shares 169.7M
2024Diluted shares 168.8M
2025Diluted shares 175.7M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
-5.0B05.0B10.0B
2016Net debt 3.3B
2017Net debt 9.9B
2018Net debt 8.5B
2019Net debt 4.3B
2020Net debt 3.2B
2021Net debt 3.6B
2022Net debt -286.2M
2023Net debt 26.4M
2024Net debt -5.8M
2025Net debt -83.7M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
-2.8×
Interest coverage
0× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
— current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
—
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
4of 7 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✕Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellfailed
–More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✕No new sharesShare count did not growfailed
–Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
The accounts lack a line it needs (retained earnings, current assets or liabilities).
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
The accounts lack too many of the lines it needs.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Capital spending (1M) is well below depreciation (29M).
Benign
Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.
Worrying
Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.
The effective tax rate is -33.5%.
Benign
A favourable geographic mix, or legitimate tax credits.
Worrying
Not sustainable; projecting it forward inflates the valuation.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$4.09discounted at 9.6% a year · 48% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
5.1×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
21.1×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
6.8×
Free cash flow yield
31.1%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today330.8M
Everything after, today304.2M
The whole business635.0M
Plus net cash83.7M
What belongs to shareholders718.7M
Divided among 175.7M shares: <strong>$4.09</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
0100.0M200.0M300.0M
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021Reported 188.8M
2022Reported 207.9M
2023Reported 166.0M
2024Reported 21.8M
2025Reported 223.8M
2026Projected 57.5M
2027Projected 55.1M
2028Projected 53.2M
2029Projected 51.9M
2030Projected 51.0M
2031Projected 50.6M
2032Projected 50.6M
2033Projected 51.0M
2034Projected 51.9M
2035Projected 53.2M
2016201820202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
89.3M
85.5M
82.7M
80.6M
79.3M
78.6M
78.6M
79.3M
80.6M
82.6M
Growth
-5.0%
-4.2%
-3.3%
-2.5%
-1.7%
-0.8%
0.0%
0.8%
1.7%
2.5%
Cash margin
64.4%
64.4%
64.4%
64.4%
64.4%
64.4%
64.4%
64.4%
64.4%
64.4%
Free cash flow
57.5M
55.1M
53.2M
51.9M
51.0M
50.6M
50.6M
51.0M
51.9M
53.2M
Worth today
52.4M
45.8M
40.4M
35.9M
32.2M
29.1M
26.6M
24.4M
22.7M
21.2M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
8.6%
4
4
5
5
5
9.1%
4
4
4
5
5
9.6%
4
4
4
4
5
10.1%
4
4
4
4
4
10.6%
3
4
4
4
4
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
-9.0%
-7.0%
-5.0%
-3.0%
-1.0%
51.5%
3
3
4
4
4
58.0%
3
4
4
4
4
64.4%
4
4
4
4
5
70.8%
4
4
4
5
5
77.3%
4
4
5
5
5
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 9.7%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$3.25
Median$4.10
90th percentile$5.33
$4.00$6.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$3.61</b> and <b>$4.66</b>; one in ten below $3.25, one in ten above $5.33.
Does the long run make sense?
28.9×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 28.9 times that year's EBITDA.
Free growthIn year 10 free cash flow is at or above after-tax operating profit, yet the model grows 2.5% forever. Growth needs reinvestment; this assumes it comes for free, which flatters the terminal value.
48%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 5 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market—none in the period
Under pre-arranged plans—of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.