SphinxRisk

Blackstone Inc.

BX · Financials (investment advice) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31

Blackstone Inc. reported revenue of $14.5 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 12.2% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from 49.2% in 2016 to 53.1%, and it earned 30.5% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $24.8 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 147.4% went to dividends; the share count fell 67.4%. On the accounting screens, it passes 4 of 7 Piotroski tests; none of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.

Revenue, fiscal 2025 14.5B +12.2% a year over 9 years
Operating margin 53.1% gross margin —
Return on invested capital 30.5% 32.8% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay 3.1B 21.5% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA 1.3× net debt 9.9B
Piotroski F-score 4/7 tests of improvement passed

Share counts are in today's shares. The SEC's filings restate only recent years after a split, so these jumps were read as splits and the older years scaled to match — otherwise per-share figures would compare different units: 2-for-1 before fiscal 2018.

Is it growing?

Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.

RevenueOperating income
Compound growth a year
3 yrs5 yrs9 yrs
Revenue+19.3%+18.8%+12.2%
Operating income+26.7%+22.5%+13.1%
Net income+20.0%+23.6%+12.6%
Earnings per share+17.9%+20.9%+27.5%
Free cash flow per share-10.9%+17.4%—
Dividend per share-4.3%+17.6%—
Shares+1.7%+2.3%-11.7%

Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.

Does it earn more than its capital costs?

Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.

GrossOperatingNetFree cash flow

Return on invested capital

Return on invested capital Cost of capital today · 6.7%

Economic profit

Economic profit

(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.

Return on equity
34.8%
Return on assets
6.3%
Asset turnover
0.30×
Overheads (SG&A)
10.6% of revenue

Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?

Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.

Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay

Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025

24.8B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.

  • Reinvested in the business 4% 937.6M
  • Acquisitions 1% 327.7M
  • Dividends 147% 36.5B
  • Share buybacks 0% 0
  • More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -53% -13.0B

Over the same years it paid 7.0B in stock. The share count fell 67.4%.

Per share

Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share

Shares outstanding

Diluted shares

How strong is the balance sheet?

Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.

Net debt
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
1.3×
Interest coverage
15× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
— current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
—

Three classic screens of the accounts

Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.

Piotroski F-score

Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.

4of 7 tests passed
  • ProfitableReturn on assets above zero passed
  • Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zero passed
  • Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year before failed
  • Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals) passed
  • Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fell passed
  • More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year before — not reported no data
  • No new sharesShare count did not grow failed
  • Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reported no data
  • Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year before failed

Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.

Altman Z''-score

Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?

The accounts lack a line it needs (retained earnings, current assets or liabilities).

Beneish M-score

Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?

The accounts lack too many of the lines it needs.

Where the statements disagree

Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.

None of the six cross-checks fires for the latest year: receivables and inventory move with revenue, profit turns into cash, investment keeps up with depreciation, the tax rate is ordinary and debt is moderate.

What is it worth, under which assumptions?

A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.

Revenue
M $

revenue of fiscal 2025

%

revenue grew +18.8% a year over the last 5 years; it fades to the terminal rate by the last year

yrs

ten years for growth to fade to the terminal rate

Cash from each sale
%

free cash flow to the firm after stock-based pay ÷ revenue, last 3 fiscal years together

%

the margin in year ten; by default the business keeps today's

The long run
%

growth forever after year ten, below the risk-free rate: no company outgrows the economy forever

The discount rate
%

10-year US Treasury yield (FRED, DGS10), 2026-09-24

not measured on this public page, which uses only public filings: 1.0 assumes it moves like the market. Sign in to measure it from prices

%

the extra return demanded for holding shares; it cannot be measured, and 4–6% is the common range

%

interest expense ÷ debt = 4.0%, kept between the risk-free rate and +8 points

%

effective rate in the last fiscal year, 15.7%, kept within 0–35%

The price
$

Type the price you see at your broker. It is used only for the reverse questions: what that price implies.

Back to the defaults

SEC from the filings Treasury the 10-year yield measured from prices assumption cannot be measured yours you changed it

Value per share, with these assumptions $274.08 discounted at 6.7% a year · 71% of it from after year 10
$184.6480% of 4,981 simulations$445.08
Cautious $144.86 15.0% growth · 27.1% margin · 7.7% discount · 2.0% forever
Your assumptions $274.08 19.0% growth · 31.9% margin · 6.7% discount · 2.5% forever
Generous $584.85 23.0% growth · 36.6% margin · 5.7% discount · 3.0% forever

Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.

What the value implies, in the usual multiples

At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings70.8×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA28.8×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue15.5×
Free cash flow yield1.5%

From cash flows to a value per share

10 years of cash flow, today64.6B
Everything after, today159.2B
The whole business223.8B
Minus net debt-9.9B
What belongs to shareholders213.8B

Divided among 780.2M shares: <strong>$274.08</strong> each.

The projection next to its history

Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.

ReportedProjected
Year by year
2026202720282029203020312032203320342035
Revenue17.2B20.1B23.2B26.4B29.5B32.3B34.9B37.1B38.7B39.7B
Growth19.0%17.2%15.3%13.5%11.7%9.8%8.0%6.2%4.3%2.5%
Cash margin31.9%31.9%31.9%31.9%31.9%31.9%31.9%31.9%31.9%31.9%
Free cash flow5.5B6.4B7.4B8.4B9.4B10.3B11.1B11.8B12.3B12.6B
Worth today5.1B5.6B6.1B6.5B6.8B7.0B7.1B7.0B6.9B6.6B

If the least-known inputs move

Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.

The discount rate and growth forever

discount ↓ · forever →1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
5.7% 285 321 368 432 525
6.2% 251 279 315 361 424
6.7% 225 247 274 309 354
7.2% 202 220 242 269 303
7.7% 184 198 216 237 264

Year-one growth and the final margin

margin ↓ · growth →15.0%17.0%19.0%21.0%23.0%
25.5% 188 205 224 244 265
28.7% 209 229 249 271 295
31.9% 231 252 274 298 324
35.0% 252 275 299 326 354
38.2% 273 298 324 353 384

All the inputs moving at once

4,981 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 4.8%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.

Half of the simulations land between <b>$222.30</b> and <b>$348.74</b>; one in ten below $184.64, one in ten above $445.08.

Does the long run make sense?

  • 14.3×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 14.3 times that year's EBITDA.
  • 9%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 29% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 9% on the new capital — it has earned 33% on average over the last five years.
  • 71%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
The discount rate, taken apart
  1. What shareholders demand (CAPM): 5.18% risk-free + 1.00 beta × 5.0% premium = <strong>10.18%</strong>.
  2. What lenders charge, after the tax saving on interest: 5.18% × (1 − 15.7%) = <strong>4.37%</strong>.
  3. Weighted by how much of each the company uses (book value (no price given)): <strong>6.74%</strong>, the rate every future cash flow is discounted at.

What it has filed lately

The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.

Companies like this one

Same SEC industry (investment advice) first, then the rest of financials.

Every figure, year by year

10 fiscal years · 30 measures
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Size
Revenue5.1B7.1B6.8B7.3B6.1B22.6B8.5B8.0B13.2B14.5B
Revenue growth—+38.8%-4.4%+7.4%-16.8%+270.0%-62.3%-5.8%+64.9%+9.2%
Operating income2.5B4.3B3.7B4.0B2.8B13.8B3.8B3.4B6.9B7.7B
Net income1.0B1.5B1.5B2.0B1.0B5.9B1.7B1.4B2.8B3.0B
Margins
Gross margin——————————
Operating margin49.2%60.4%53.8%54.7%45.6%60.9%44.4%42.2%52.2%53.1%
Net margin20.2%20.6%22.6%27.9%17.1%25.9%20.5%17.3%21.0%20.9%
Free cash flow margin-2.1%-23.1%0.4%25.9%29.9%17.4%71.6%47.8%25.9%31.5%
R&D ÷ revenue——————————
SG&A ÷ revenue10.5%6.8%8.7%9.3%11.7%4.1%12.8%13.9%10.3%10.6%
Cash
Free cash flow-110.4M-1.7B27.4M1.9B1.8B3.9B6.1B3.8B3.4B4.5B
Stock-based pay323.7M338.7M366.9M417.1M438.3M637.4M846.3M987.5M1.2B1.4B
Free cash flow after stock pay-434.1M-2.0B-339.6M1.5B1.4B3.3B5.3B2.8B2.3B3.1B
Free cash flow to the firm2.4B3.5B3.4B3.9B2.3B12.5B3.1B2.7B5.8B6.5B
Free cash flow ÷ net income-0.1×-1.1×0.0×0.9×1.7×0.7×3.5×2.8×1.2×1.5×
Capex ÷ revenue0.4%0.3%0.3%0.8%1.8%0.3%2.8%2.8%0.5%0.8%
Returns
Return on invested capital——20.4%21.4%19.4%72.7%16.2%15.2%29.5%30.5%
Return on equity——24.2%29.2%15.7%62.2%22.8%20.4%33.8%34.8%
Return on assets3.9%4.3%5.3%6.3%4.0%14.2%4.1%3.5%6.4%6.3%
Asset turnover0.2×0.2×0.2×0.2×0.2×0.5×0.2×0.2×0.3×0.3×
Economic profit——2.3B2.7B1.6B11.4B1.9B1.6B4.5B5.0B
Per share
Earnings per share$0.43$1.10$1.28$3.03$1.50$8.13$2.36$1.84$3.62$3.87
Free cash flow per share$-0.05$-1.24$0.02$2.81$2.62$5.45$8.23$5.07$4.46$5.83
Dividend per share—$2.13$2.52$3.54$3.42$6.39$8.80$5.65$5.77$7.71
Payout ratio—193.2%197.6%116.9%228.2%78.6%373.0%306.9%159.3%199.2%
Book value per share——$5.29$10.37$9.73$13.38$10.78$9.48$11.22$11.57
Diluted shares2.4B1.3B1.2B676.2M697.3M720.1M740.9M755.4M766.6M780.2M
Balance sheet
Net debt7.1B13.2B8.2B9.4B3.7B5.7B8.2B8.7B9.5B9.9B
Net debt ÷ EBITDA2.8×3.0×2.2×2.3×1.3×0.4×2.1×2.5×1.4×1.3×
Interest coverage16.6×21.9×22.4×20.1×16.8×69.4×11.9×7.8×15.6×15.1×
Current ratio——————————
Cash conversion cycle (days)——————————
Scores
Piotroski F-score—465553464
Altman Z''——————————
Beneish M——————————

Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.