BX · Financials(investment advice) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
Blackstone Inc. reported revenue of $14.5 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 12.2% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from 49.2% in 2016 to 53.1%, and it earned 30.5% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $24.8 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 147.4% went to dividends; the share count fell 67.4%. On the accounting screens, it passes 4 of 7 Piotroski tests; none of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 202514.5B+12.2% a year over 9 years
Operating margin53.1%gross margin —
Return on invested capital30.5%32.8% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay3.1B21.5% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA1.3×net debt 9.9B
Piotroski F-score4/7tests of improvement passed
Share counts are in today's shares. The SEC's filings restate only recent years after a split, so these jumps were read as splits and the older years scaled to match — otherwise per-share figures would compare different units:
2-for-1 before fiscal 2018.
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
010.0B20.0B30.0B
2016Revenue 5.1BOperating income 2.5B
2017Revenue 7.1BOperating income 4.3B
2018Revenue 6.8BOperating income 3.7B
2019Revenue 7.3BOperating income 4.0B
2020Revenue 6.1BOperating income 2.8B
2021Revenue 22.6BOperating income 13.8B
2022Revenue 8.5BOperating income 3.8B
2023Revenue 8.0BOperating income 3.4B
2024Revenue 13.2BOperating income 6.9B
2025Revenue 14.5BOperating income 7.7B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+19.3%
+18.8%
+12.2%
Operating income
+26.7%
+22.5%
+13.1%
Net income
+20.0%
+23.6%
+12.6%
Earnings per share
+17.9%
+20.9%
+27.5%
Free cash flow per share
-10.9%
+17.4%
—
Dividend per share
-4.3%
+17.6%
—
Shares
+1.7%
+2.3%
-11.7%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
GrossOperatingNetFree cash flow
-25.0%0.0%25.0%50.0%75.0%
2016Operating 49.2%Net 20.2%Free cash flow -2.1%
2017Operating 60.4%Net 20.6%Free cash flow -23.1%
2018Operating 53.8%Net 22.6%Free cash flow 0.4%
2019Operating 54.7%Net 27.9%Free cash flow 25.9%
2020Operating 45.6%Net 17.1%Free cash flow 29.9%
2021Operating 60.9%Net 25.9%Free cash flow 17.4%
2022Operating 44.4%Net 20.5%Free cash flow 71.6%
2023Operating 42.2%Net 17.3%Free cash flow 47.8%
2024Operating 52.2%Net 21.0%Free cash flow 25.9%
2025Operating 53.1%Net 20.9%Free cash flow 31.5%
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Return on invested capital
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 6.7%
0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%
2016
2017
2018Return on invested capital 20.4%
2019Return on invested capital 21.4%
2020Return on invested capital 19.4%
2021Return on invested capital 72.7%
2022Return on invested capital 16.2%
2023Return on invested capital 15.2%
2024Return on invested capital 29.5%
2025Return on invested capital 30.5%
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
05.0B10.0B15.0B
2016
2017
2018Economic profit 2.3B
2019Economic profit 2.7B
2020Economic profit 1.6B
2021Economic profit 11.4B
2022Economic profit 1.9B
2023Economic profit 1.6B
2024Economic profit 4.5B
2025Economic profit 5.0B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
34.8%
Return on assets
6.3%
Asset turnover
0.30×
Overheads (SG&A)
10.6% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-2.5B02.5B5.0B7.5B
2016Net income 1.0BFree cash flow -110.4MAfter stock-based pay -434.1M
2017Net income 1.5BFree cash flow -1.7BAfter stock-based pay -2.0B
2018Net income 1.5BFree cash flow 27.4MAfter stock-based pay -339.6M
2019Net income 2.0BFree cash flow 1.9BAfter stock-based pay 1.5B
2020Net income 1.0BFree cash flow 1.8BAfter stock-based pay 1.4B
2021Net income 5.9BFree cash flow 3.9BAfter stock-based pay 3.3B
2022Net income 1.7BFree cash flow 6.1BAfter stock-based pay 5.3B
2023Net income 1.4BFree cash flow 3.8BAfter stock-based pay 2.8B
2024Net income 2.8BFree cash flow 3.4BAfter stock-based pay 2.3B
2025Net income 3.0BFree cash flow 4.5BAfter stock-based pay 3.1B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025
24.8B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 4%937.6M
Acquisitions 1%327.7M
Dividends 147%36.5B
Share buybacks 0%0
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -53%-13.0B
Over the same years it paid 7.0B in stock. The share count fell 67.4%.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$-5.00$0.00$5.00$10.00
2016Earnings per share $0.43Free cash flow per share $-0.05
2017Earnings per share $1.10Free cash flow per share $-1.24Dividend per share $2.13
2018Earnings per share $1.28Free cash flow per share $0.02Dividend per share $2.52
2019Earnings per share $3.03Free cash flow per share $2.81Dividend per share $3.54
2020Earnings per share $1.50Free cash flow per share $2.62Dividend per share $3.42
2021Earnings per share $8.13Free cash flow per share $5.45Dividend per share $6.39
2022Earnings per share $2.36Free cash flow per share $8.23Dividend per share $8.80
2023Earnings per share $1.84Free cash flow per share $5.07Dividend per share $5.65
2024Earnings per share $3.62Free cash flow per share $4.46Dividend per share $5.77
2025Earnings per share $3.87Free cash flow per share $5.83Dividend per share $7.71
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
500.0M1.0B1.5B2.0B2.5B
2016Diluted shares 2.4B
2017Diluted shares 1.3B
2018Diluted shares 1.2B
2019Diluted shares 676.2M
2020Diluted shares 697.3M
2021Diluted shares 720.1M
2022Diluted shares 740.9M
2023Diluted shares 755.4M
2024Diluted shares 766.6M
2025Diluted shares 780.2M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
05.0B10.0B15.0B
2016Net debt 7.1B
2017Net debt 13.2B
2018Net debt 8.2B
2019Net debt 9.4B
2020Net debt 3.7B
2021Net debt 5.7B
2022Net debt 8.2B
2023Net debt 8.7B
2024Net debt 9.5B
2025Net debt 9.9B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
1.3×
Interest coverage
15× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
— current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
—
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
4of 7 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
–More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✕No new sharesShare count did not growfailed
–Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
The accounts lack a line it needs (retained earnings, current assets or liabilities).
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
The accounts lack too many of the lines it needs.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
None of the six cross-checks fires for the latest year: receivables and inventory move with revenue, profit turns into cash, investment keeps up with depreciation, the tax rate is ordinary and debt is moderate.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$274.08discounted at 6.7% a year · 71% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
70.8×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
28.8×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
15.5×
Free cash flow yield
1.5%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today64.6B
Everything after, today159.2B
The whole business223.8B
Minus net debt-9.9B
What belongs to shareholders213.8B
Divided among 780.2M shares: <strong>$274.08</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-5.0B05.0B10.0B15.0B
2016Reported -434.1M
2017Reported -2.0B
2018Reported -339.6M
2019Reported 1.5B
2020Reported 1.4B
2021Reported 3.3B
2022Reported 5.3B
2023Reported 2.8B
2024Reported 2.3B
2025Reported 3.1B
2026Projected 5.5B
2027Projected 6.4B
2028Projected 7.4B
2029Projected 8.4B
2030Projected 9.4B
2031Projected 10.3B
2032Projected 11.1B
2033Projected 11.8B
2034Projected 12.3B
2035Projected 12.6B
2016201820202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
17.2B
20.1B
23.2B
26.4B
29.5B
32.3B
34.9B
37.1B
38.7B
39.7B
Growth
19.0%
17.2%
15.3%
13.5%
11.7%
9.8%
8.0%
6.2%
4.3%
2.5%
Cash margin
31.9%
31.9%
31.9%
31.9%
31.9%
31.9%
31.9%
31.9%
31.9%
31.9%
Free cash flow
5.5B
6.4B
7.4B
8.4B
9.4B
10.3B
11.1B
11.8B
12.3B
12.6B
Worth today
5.1B
5.6B
6.1B
6.5B
6.8B
7.0B
7.1B
7.0B
6.9B
6.6B
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
5.7%
285
321
368
432
525
6.2%
251
279
315
361
424
6.7%
225
247
274
309
354
7.2%
202
220
242
269
303
7.7%
184
198
216
237
264
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
15.0%
17.0%
19.0%
21.0%
23.0%
25.5%
188
205
224
244
265
28.7%
209
229
249
271
295
31.9%
231
252
274
298
324
35.0%
252
275
299
326
354
38.2%
273
298
324
353
384
All the inputs moving at once
4,981 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 4.8%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$184.64
Median$273.63
90th percentile$445.08
$200.00$400.00$600.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$222.30</b> and <b>$348.74</b>; one in ten below $184.64, one in ten above $445.08.
Does the long run make sense?
14.3×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 14.3 times that year's EBITDA.
9%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 29% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 9% on the new capital — it has earned 33% on average over the last five years.
71%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.