V · Financials(services-business services, nec) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-09-30
Visa Inc. reported revenue of $40.0 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 9.0% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin narrowed from 66.2% in 2017 to 60.0%, and it earned 31.5% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $143.3 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 68.5% went to buybacks and 18.9% to dividends. On the accounting screens, it passes 5 of 7 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 2.94 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; none of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 202540.0B+9.0% a year over 9 years
Operating margin60.0%gross margin —
Return on invested capital31.5%28.1% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay20.7B51.7% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA0.3×net debt 8.0B
Piotroski F-score5/7tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
010.0B20.0B30.0B40.0B
2017Revenue 18.4BOperating income 12.1B
2018Revenue 20.6BOperating income 13.0B
2018
2019Revenue 23.0BOperating income 15.0B
2020Revenue 21.8BOperating income 14.1B
2021Revenue 24.1BOperating income 15.8B
2022Revenue 29.3BOperating income 18.8B
2023Revenue 32.7BOperating income 21.0B
2024Revenue 35.9BOperating income 23.6B
2025Revenue 40.0BOperating income 24.0B
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+10.9%
+12.9%
+9.0%
Operating income
+8.4%
+11.2%
+7.9%
Net income
+10.3%
+13.0%
+13.0%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
GrossOperatingNetFree cash flow
0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%
2017Operating 66.2%Net 36.5%Free cash flow 46.9%
2018Operating 62.9%Net 50.0%Free cash flow 59.3%
2018
2019Operating 65.3%Net 52.6%Free cash flow 52.3%
2020Operating 64.5%Net 49.7%Free cash flow 44.4%
2021Operating 65.6%Net 51.1%Free cash flow 60.2%
2022Operating 64.2%Net 51.0%Free cash flow 61.0%
2023Operating 64.3%Net 52.9%Free cash flow 60.3%
2024Operating 65.7%Net 55.0%Free cash flow 52.0%
2025Operating 60.0%Net 50.1%Free cash flow 53.9%
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Return on invested capital
Return on invested capital
0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%
2017Return on invested capital 13.6%
2018Return on invested capital 20.6%
2018
2019Return on invested capital 23.7%
2020Return on invested capital 18.4%
2021Return on invested capital 20.7%
2022Return on invested capital 26.7%
2023Return on invested capital 29.1%
2024Return on invested capital 32.5%
2025Return on invested capital 31.5%
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Needs a cost of capital, which comes from the valuation below.
Return on equity
52.9%
Return on assets
20.1%
Asset turnover
0.40×
Overheads (SG&A)
4.8% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
010.0B20.0B30.0B
2017Net income 6.7BFree cash flow 8.6BAfter stock-based pay 8.4B
2018Net income 10.3BFree cash flow 12.2BAfter stock-based pay 11.9B
2018
2019Net income 12.1BFree cash flow 12.0BAfter stock-based pay 11.6B
2020Net income 10.9BFree cash flow 9.7BAfter stock-based pay 9.3B
2021Net income 12.3BFree cash flow 14.5BAfter stock-based pay 14.0B
2022Net income 15.0BFree cash flow 17.9BAfter stock-based pay 17.3B
2023Net income 17.3BFree cash flow 19.7BAfter stock-based pay 18.9B
2024Net income 19.7BFree cash flow 18.7BAfter stock-based pay 17.8B
2025Net income 20.1BFree cash flow 21.6BAfter stock-based pay 20.7B
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2017–2025
143.3B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 6%8.4B
Acquisitions 4%5.1B
Dividends 19%27.0B
Share buybacks 69%98.2B
Kept, or used to pay down debt 3%4.6B
Over the same years it paid 5.0B in stock. 93.2B of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Shares outstanding
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
02.5B5.0B7.5B10.0B
2017Net debt 8.5B
2018Net debt 8.5B
2018
2019Net debt 8.9B
2020Net debt 7.8B
2021Net debt 4.5B
2022Net debt 6.8B
2023Net debt 4.2B
2024Net debt 8.9B
2025Net debt 8.0B
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
0.3×
Interest coverage
41× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.08 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
— collects in 29d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
5of 7 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
–No new sharesShare count did not grow — not reportedno data
–Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
2.94safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.03 × 6.56+0.18
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.15 × 3.26+0.49
Operating income ÷ assets 0.24 × 6.72+1.62
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.61 × 1.05+0.64
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.50below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.10+1.01
Gross margin slipping 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.53
Soft assets 0.96+0.39
Sales growth 1.11+0.99
Slower depreciation 0.95+0.11
Overheads vs sales 1.08-0.19
Profit not in cash -0.03-0.14
Leverage rising 1.09-0.36
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
None of the six cross-checks fires for the latest year: receivables and inventory move with revenue, profit turns into cash, investment keeps up with depreciation, the tax rate is ordinary and debt is moderate.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
The SEC accounts lack the lines needed for revenue, free cash flow or the share count, so there is no DCF for this company.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.