ALH · Industrials(refrigeration & service industry machinery) · 4 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Alliance Laundry Holdings Inc. reported revenue of $1.7 billion in fiscal 2025. Of the $565.9 million its operations generated over 4 years, 47.0% went to dividends and 22.9% back into the business. On the accounting screens, it passes 5 of 7 Piotroski tests and its Altman Z'' of 1.14 is in the grey zone; 1 of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 20251.7B
Operating margin18.6%gross margin —
Return on invested capital—
Free cash flow after stock pay138.5M8.1% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA—net debt —
Piotroski F-score5/7tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
00.5B1.0B1.5B2.0B
2022
2023Revenue 1.4BOperating income 235.7M
2024Revenue 1.5BOperating income 284.0M
2025Revenue 1.7BOperating income 317.4M
2022202320242025
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
GrossOperatingNetFree cash flow
0%5%10%15%20%
2022
2023Operating 17.3%Net 6.5%Free cash flow 12.9%
2024Operating 18.8%Net 6.5%Free cash flow 6.8%
2025Operating 18.6%Net 6.0%Free cash flow 9.2%
2022202320242025
Return on invested capital
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 10.2%
0%5%10%15%
2022
2023
2024
2025
2022202320242025
Economic profit
Needs a cost of capital, which comes from the valuation below.
Return on equity
26.0%
Return on assets
3.5%
Asset turnover
0.59×
Research & development
1.7% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
050M100M150M200M
2022
2023Net income 88.2MFree cash flow 176.0MAfter stock-based pay 172.7M
2024Net income 98.3MFree cash flow 102.0MAfter stock-based pay 98.7M
2025Net income 101.8MFree cash flow 158.0MAfter stock-based pay 138.5M
2022202320242025
Where 4 years of operating cash went, 2022–2025
565.9M generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 23%129.8M
Acquisitions 10%55.7M
Dividends 47%265.9M
Share buybacks 5%26.6M
Kept, or used to pay down debt 16%87.8M
Over the same years it paid 26.1M in stock. 480,000 of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$0.00$0.50$1.00$1.50$2.00
2022
2023Earnings per share $0.51Free cash flow per share $1.01Dividend per share $0.00
2024Earnings per share $0.56Free cash flow per share $0.58Dividend per share $1.53
2025Earnings per share $0.56Free cash flow per share $0.87Dividend per share $0.00
2022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
172M174M176M178M180M182M
2022
2023Diluted shares 173.6M
2024Diluted shares 174.3M
2025Diluted shares 181.4M
2022202320242025
Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
—
Interest coverage
2× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.40 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
—
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
5of 7 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
–Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fell — not reportedno data
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
✕No new sharesShare count did not growfailed
–Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
1.14grey zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.07 × 6.56+0.44
Retained earnings ÷ assets -0.06 × 3.26-0.20
Operating income ÷ assets 0.11 × 6.72+0.74
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.16 × 1.05+0.17
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
The accounts lack too many of the lines it needs.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Capital spending (54M) is well below depreciation (94M).
Benign
Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.
Worrying
Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$30.40discounted at 10.2% a year · 52% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
54.2×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
13.4×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
3.2×
Free cash flow yield
2.5%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today2.7B
Everything after, today2.9B
The whole business5.5B
Minus net debt-0
What belongs to shareholders5.5B
Divided among 181.4M shares: <strong>$30.40</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
0200M400M600M
2022
2023Reported 172.7M
2024Reported 98.7M
2025Reported 138.5M
2026Projected 318.9M
2027Projected 353.8M
2028Projected 388.8M
2029Projected 423.1M
2030Projected 456.1M
2031Projected 486.7M
2032Projected 514.3M
2033Projected 538.0M
2034Projected 557.1M
2035Projected 571.1M
2022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
1.9B
2.1B
2.3B
2.5B
2.7B
2.9B
3.1B
3.2B
3.3B
3.4B
Growth
12.0%
10.9%
9.9%
8.8%
7.8%
6.7%
5.7%
4.6%
3.6%
2.5%
Cash margin
16.7%
16.7%
16.7%
16.7%
16.7%
16.7%
16.7%
16.7%
16.7%
16.7%
Free cash flow
318.9M
353.8M
388.8M
423.1M
456.1M
486.7M
514.3M
538.0M
557.1M
571.1M
Worth today
289.3M
291.1M
290.2M
286.5M
280.1M
271.2M
259.9M
246.6M
231.7M
215.4M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
9.2%
31
33
35
38
40
9.7%
29
31
33
35
37
10.2%
28
29
30
32
34
10.7%
26
27
28
30
32
11.2%
25
26
27
28
29
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
13.3%
22
24
26
28
30
15.0%
24
26
28
30
33
16.7%
26
28
30
33
36
18.3%
28
30
33
35
38
20.0%
30
32
35
38
41
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.5%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$23.21
Median$30.46
90th percentile$40.92
$20.00$30.00$40.00$50.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$26.29</b> and <b>$35.28</b>; one in ten below $23.21, one in ten above $40.92.
Does the long run make sense?
9.2×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 9.2 times that year's EBITDA.
Free growthIn year 10 free cash flow is at or above after-tax operating profit, yet the model grows 2.5% forever. Growth needs reinvestment; this assumes it comes for free, which flatters the terminal value.
52%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
What lenders charge, after the tax saving on interest: 6.74% × (1 − 26.3%) = <strong>4.97%</strong>.
Weighted by how much of each the company uses (book value (no price given)): <strong>10.24%</strong>, the rate every future cash flow is discounted at.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 10 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market$593.0M3 sale(s) by 2 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans67%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
