Z · Industrials(services-business services, nec) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Zillow Group, Inc. reported revenue of $2.6 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 13.2% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from -22.8% in 2016 to -1.3%. Of the $2.6 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 103.3% went to buybacks and 40.0% to acquisitions. On the accounting screens, it passes 6 of 8 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 6.96 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 3 of the six cross-checks between its statements fire.
Revenue, fiscal 20252.6B+13.2% a year over 9 years
Operating margin-1.3%gross margin 74.1%
Return on invested capital—3.6% on average over 1 years
Free cash flow after stock pay-155.0M-6.0% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA—net debt —
Piotroski F-score6/8tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
-1.0B01.0B2.0B3.0B
2016Revenue 846.6MOperating income -192.9M
2017Revenue 1.1BOperating income -161.9M
2018Revenue 1.3BOperating income -129.0M
2019Revenue 2.7BOperating income -247.5M
2020Revenue 1.6BOperating income 109.0M
2021Revenue 2.1BOperating income 239.0M
2022Revenue 2.0BOperating income -93.0M
2023Revenue 1.9BOperating income -270.0M
2024Revenue 2.2BOperating income -197.0M
2025Revenue 2.6BOperating income -34.0M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+9.7%
+9.7%
+13.2%
Free cash flow per share
-62.9%
-8.7%
—
Shares
+1.6%
+1.9%
—
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Needs a cost of capital, which comes from the valuation below.
Return on equity
0.5%
Return on assets
0.4%
Asset turnover
0.45×
Research & development
23.5% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
19.2% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-4.0B-2.0B02.0B4.0B6.0B
2016Net income -220.4MFree cash flow -53.4MAfter stock-based pay -160.3M
2017Net income -94.4MFree cash flow 191.5MAfter stock-based pay 77.9M
2018Net income -119.9MFree cash flow -62.2MAfter stock-based pay -211.3M
2019Net income -305.4MFree cash flow -679.2MAfter stock-based pay -878.1M
2020Net income -162.0MFree cash flow 338.0MAfter stock-based pay 141.0M
2021Net income -528.0MFree cash flow -3.3BAfter stock-based pay -3.6B
2022Net income -101.0MFree cash flow 4.4BAfter stock-based pay 3.9B
2023Net income -158.0MFree cash flow 219.0MAfter stock-based pay -232.0M
2024Net income -112.0MFree cash flow 285.0MAfter stock-based pay -163.0M
2025Net income 23.0MFree cash flow 235.0MAfter stock-based pay -155.0M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025
2.6B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 37%946.9M
Acquisitions 40%1.0B
Dividends 0%0
Share buybacks 103%2.6B
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -80%-2.1B
Over the same years it paid 2.8B in stock. The buybacks did not even cover what was handed out in stock.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$-20.00$-10.00$0.00$10.00$20.00
2016
2017
2018
2019Earnings per share $-1.48Free cash flow per share $-3.29
2020Earnings per share $-0.70Free cash flow per share $1.46
2021Earnings per share $-2.02Free cash flow per share $-12.42
2022Earnings per share $-0.42Free cash flow per share $18.12
2023Earnings per share $-0.68Free cash flow per share $0.94
2024Earnings per share $-0.48Free cash flow per share $1.22
2025Earnings per share $0.09Free cash flow per share $0.92
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
200.0M220.0M240.0M260.0M280.0M
2016
2017
2018
2019Diluted shares 206.4M
2020Diluted shares 231.4M
2021Diluted shares 261.8M
2022Diluted shares 242.2M
2023Diluted shares 233.6M
2024Diluted shares 234.1M
2025Diluted shares 254.1M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
-1.0B-500.0M0500.0M
2016Net debt 123.8M
2017Net debt 33.3M
2018Net debt 48.0M
2019Net debt 402.1M
2020Net debt -89.6M
2021Net debt -995.8M
2022
2023
2024
2025
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
—
Interest coverage
-2× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
3.13 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
— collects in 21d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
6of 8 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
–Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fell — not reportedno data
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✕No new sharesShare count did not growfailed
✕Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforefailed
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
6.96safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.25 × 6.56+1.67
Retained earnings ÷ assets -0.33 × 3.26-1.07
Operating income ÷ assets -0.01 × 6.72-0.04
Equity ÷ liabilities 6.10 × 1.05+6.40
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.29below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.24+1.14
Gross margin slipping 1.03+0.54
Soft assets 1.05+0.42
Sales growth 1.16+1.03
Slower depreciation 0.93+0.11
Overheads vs sales 0.82-0.14
Profit not in cash -0.06-0.28
Leverage rising 0.84-0.27
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Receivables are growing 43% against revenue growing 16%.
Benign
A shift towards larger customers on longer terms, or sales concentrated at the end of the period.
Worrying
Sales are being made on looser credit, or revenue has been booked that may never be collected.
Capital spending (133M) is well below depreciation (264M).
Benign
Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.
Worrying
Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.
The effective tax rate is 8.0%.
Benign
A favourable geographic mix, or legitimate tax credits.
Worrying
Not sustainable; projecting it forward inflates the valuation.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
With a free cash flow margin at or below zero in year ten, the business never generates cash for its owners and a DCF says nothing useful. Set a positive margin for year ten to see what it would take.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 6 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market$901,6416 sale(s) by 4 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans100%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
