WSC · Industrials(services-miscellaneous equipment rental & leasing) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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WillScot Holdings Corp reported revenue of $2.3 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 20.5% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from -0.7% in 2016 to 8.0%. Of the $3.9 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 58.2% went to acquisitions; the share count rose 191.8%. On the accounting screens, it passes 3 of 7 Piotroski tests and its Altman Z'' of -0.15 is in the distress zone; 2 of the six cross-checks between its statements fire.
Revenue, fiscal 20252.3B+20.5% a year over 9 years
Operating margin8.0%gross margin —
Return on invested capital—
Free cash flow after stock pay699.2M30.6% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA—net debt —
Piotroski F-score3/7tests of improvement passed
Share counts are in today's shares. The SEC's filings restate only recent years after a split, so these jumps were read as splits and the older years scaled to match — otherwise per-share figures would compare different units:
2-for-1 before fiscal 2020.
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
-1B01B2B3B
2016Revenue 426.6MOperating income -3.2M
2017Revenue 445.9MOperating income -58.3M
2018Revenue 751.4MOperating income 6.3M
2019Revenue 1.1BOperating income 117.5M
2020Revenue 1.3BOperating income 161.8M
2021Revenue 1.7BOperating income 300.4M
2022Revenue 2.1BOperating income 511.5M
2023Revenue 2.4BOperating income 673.5M
2024Revenue 2.4BOperating income 263.9M
2025Revenue 2.3BOperating income 181.5M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+2.1%
+12.4%
+20.5%
Operating income
-29.2%
+2.3%
—
Free cash flow per share
+8.5%
+20.0%
+18.1%
Shares
-6.3%
+0.6%
+12.6%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 10.3%
0%5%10%15%
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Needs a cost of capital, which comes from the valuation below.
Return on equity
-6.2%
Return on assets
-0.9%
Asset turnover
0.39×
Overheads (SG&A)
25.5% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-250M0250M500M750M
2016Net income -30.9MFree cash flow 56.4MAfter stock-based pay 56.4M
2017Net income -147.7MFree cash flow -5.8MAfter stock-based pay -8.8M
2018Net income -49.0MFree cash flow 32.5MAfter stock-based pay 29.1M
2019Net income -11.1MFree cash flow 164.2MAfter stock-based pay 157.5M
2020Net income 74.0MFree cash flow 288.4MAfter stock-based pay 278.5M
2021Net income 160.1MFree cash flow 509.4MAfter stock-based pay 483.2M
2022Net income 339.5MFree cash flow 701.0MAfter stock-based pay 671.4M
2023Net income 476.5MFree cash flow 739.0MAfter stock-based pay 704.5M
2024Net income 28.1MFree cash flow 543.2MAfter stock-based pay 507.2M
2025Net income -53.0MFree cash flow 737.7MAfter stock-based pay 699.2M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025
3.9B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 4%175.4M
Acquisitions 58%2.3B
Dividends 1%51.1M
Share buybacks 0%0
Kept, or used to pay down debt 36%1.4B
Over the same years it paid 187.6M in stock. The share count rose 191.8%.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
-$2$0$2$4$6
2016Earnings per share $-0.49Free cash flow per share $0.90
2017
2018Earnings per share $-0.56Free cash flow per share $0.37
2019Earnings per share $-0.10Free cash flow per share $1.51
2020Earnings per share $0.42Free cash flow per share $1.63
2021Earnings per share $0.69Free cash flow per share $2.19
2022Earnings per share $1.53Free cash flow per share $3.17
2023Earnings per share $2.36Free cash flow per share $3.66Dividend per share $0.00
2024Earnings per share $0.15Free cash flow per share $2.85Dividend per share $0.00
2025Earnings per share $-0.29Free cash flow per share $4.04Dividend per share $0.28
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
50M100M150M200M250M
2016Diluted shares 62.5M
2017
2018Diluted shares 87.2M
2019Diluted shares 108.7M
2020Diluted shares 177.3M
2021Diluted shares 232.8M
2022Diluted shares 221.4M
2023Diluted shares 201.8M
2024Diluted shares 190.3M
2025Diluted shares 182.4M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
—
Interest coverage
— operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
0.86 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
— collects in 63d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
3of 7 tests passed
✕ProfitableReturn on assets above zerofailed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
–Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fell — not reportedno data
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
–Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
-0.15distress zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets -0.01 × 6.56-0.10
Retained earnings ÷ assets -0.14 × 3.26-0.45
Operating income ÷ assets 0.03 × 6.72+0.21
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.17 × 1.05+0.18
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
The accounts lack too many of the lines it needs.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Capital spending (24M) is well below depreciation (96M).
Benign
Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.
Worrying
Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.
The effective tax rate is -4.4%.
Benign
A favourable geographic mix, or legitimate tax credits.
Worrying
Not sustainable; projecting it forward inflates the valuation.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$34.03discounted at 10.3% a year · 52% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
—
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
22.4×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
2.7×
Free cash flow yield
11.3%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today3.0B
Everything after, today3.2B
The whole business6.2B
Minus net debt-0
What belongs to shareholders6.2B
Divided among 182.4M shares: <strong>$34.03</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-200M0200M400M600M800M
2016Reported 56.4M
2017Reported -8.8M
2018Reported 29.1M
2019Reported 157.5M
2020Reported 278.5M
2021Reported 483.2M
2022Reported 671.4M
2023Reported 704.5M
2024Reported 507.2M
2025Reported 699.2M
2026Projected 354.5M
2027Projected 394.9M
2028Projected 435.5M
2029Projected 475.4M
2030Projected 513.7M
2031Projected 549.4M
2032Projected 581.4M
2033Projected 608.9M
2034Projected 630.9M
2035Projected 646.6M
2016201820202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
2.6B
2.9B
3.2B
3.4B
3.7B
4.0B
4.2B
4.4B
4.6B
4.7B
Growth
12.5%
11.4%
10.3%
9.2%
8.1%
6.9%
5.8%
4.7%
3.6%
2.5%
Cash margin
13.8%
13.8%
13.8%
13.8%
13.8%
13.8%
13.8%
13.8%
13.8%
13.8%
Free cash flow
354.5M
394.9M
435.5M
475.4M
513.7M
549.4M
581.4M
608.9M
630.9M
646.6M
Worth today
321.5M
324.8M
324.9M
321.6M
315.2M
305.7M
293.5M
278.7M
261.9M
243.5M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
9.3%
35
37
39
42
45
9.8%
33
35
37
39
41
10.3%
31
32
34
36
38
10.8%
29
30
32
33
35
11.3%
28
29
30
31
33
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
8.5%
10.5%
12.5%
14.5%
16.5%
11.1%
25
27
29
31
34
12.4%
27
29
31
34
37
13.8%
29
31
34
37
40
15.2%
31
34
37
40
43
16.6%
33
36
39
43
46
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.1%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$25.98
Median$34.10
90th percentile$45.81
$30.00$40.00$50.00$60.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$29.44</b> and <b>$39.51</b>; one in ten below $25.98, one in ten above $45.81.
Does the long run make sense?
15.0×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 15.0 times that year's EBITDA.
Free growthIn year 10 free cash flow is at or above after-tax operating profit, yet the model grows 2.5% forever. Growth needs reinvestment; this assumes it comes for free, which flatters the terminal value.
52%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
What lenders charge, after the tax saving on interest: 6.76% × (1 − 0.0%) = <strong>6.76%</strong>.
Weighted by how much of each the company uses (book value (no price given)): <strong>10.26%</strong>, the rate every future cash flow is discounted at.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 6 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market—none in the period
Under pre-arranged plans—of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.