UWMC · Financials(mortgage bankers & loan correspondents) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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UWM Holdings Corp reported revenue of $3.2 billion in fiscal 2025. On the accounting screens, it passes 5 of 7 Piotroski tests; 3 of the six cross-checks between its statements fire.
Revenue, fiscal 20253.2B
Operating margin7.9%gross margin —
Return on invested capital5.3%15.6% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay-2.8B-87.7% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA8.1×net debt 2.5B
Piotroski F-score5/7tests of improvement passed
Share counts are in today's shares. The SEC's filings restate only recent years after a split, so these jumps were read as splits and the older years scaled to match — otherwise per-share figures would compare different units:
15-for-1 before fiscal 2025.
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
-2B02B4B6B
2019
2019
2019Revenue 1.3BOperating income 579.2M
2020Revenue 4.9BOperating income -6.8M
2021
2021Revenue 3.0BOperating income 1.9B
2022Revenue 2.4BOperating income 1.2B
2023Revenue 2.2BOperating income 244.0M
2024Revenue 2.7BOperating income 336.0M
2025Revenue 3.2BOperating income 250.9M
2019201920192020202120212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+10.0%
—
—
Operating income
-41.3%
—
—
Net income
-13.1%
—
—
Earnings per share
-17.1%
—
—
Dividend per share
+22.7%
—
—
Shares
+4.9%
—
—
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 7.8%
-10%0%10%20%30%40%
2019
2019
2019
2020Return on invested capital -0.8%
2021
2021Return on invested capital 36.2%
2022Return on invested capital 23.9%
2023Return on invested capital 5.9%
2024Return on invested capital 6.8%
2025Return on invested capital 5.3%
2019201920192020202120212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-0.5B00.5B1.0B1.5B
2019
2019
2019
2020Economic profit -69.9M
2021
2021Economic profit 1.5B
2022Economic profit 831.5M
2023Economic profit -85.1M
2024Economic profit -50.0M
2025Economic profit -114.6M
2019201920192020202120212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
1.7%
Return on assets
0.2%
Asset turnover
0.19×
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-15B-10B-5B05B10B
2019
2019
2019Net income 415.1MFree cash flow -3.5BAfter stock-based pay -3.5B
2020Net income -5.8MFree cash flow -876,000After stock-based pay -876,000
2021
2021Net income 98.4MFree cash flow -10.0BAfter stock-based pay -10.0B
2022Net income 41.7MFree cash flow 8.2BAfter stock-based pay 8.2B
2023Net income -13.2MFree cash flow 138.8MAfter stock-based pay 125.0M
2024Net income 14.4MFree cash flow -6.3BAfter stock-based pay -6.3B
2025Net income 27.4MFree cash flow -2.7BAfter stock-based pay -2.8B
2019201920192020202120212022202320242025
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
-$5.0-$2.5$0.0$2.5$5.0$7.5
2019
2019
2019
2020
2021
2021Earnings per share $0.00Free cash flow per share $-0.42Dividend per share $0.00
2022Earnings per share $0.03Free cash flow per share $5.94Dividend per share $0.03
2023Earnings per share $-0.01Free cash flow per share $0.10Dividend per share $0.03
2024Earnings per share $0.01Free cash flow per share $-3.76Dividend per share $0.02
2025Earnings per share $0.02Free cash flow per share $-1.70Dividend per share $0.05
2019201920192020202120212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
010B20B30B
2019
2019
2019
2020
2021
2021Diluted shares 24.0B
2022Diluted shares 1.4B
2023Diluted shares 1.4B
2024Diluted shares 1.7B
2025Diluted shares 1.6B
2019201920192020202120212022202320242025
Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
-1B01B2B3B
2019
2019
2019
2020Net debt -423.8M
2021
2021Net debt 1.3B
2022Net debt 1.3B
2023Net debt 1.5B
2024Net debt 2.3B
2025Net debt 2.5B
2019201920192020202120212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
8.1×
Interest coverage
— operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
— current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
—
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
5of 7 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✕Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zerofailed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✕Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)failed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
–More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
–Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
The accounts lack a line it needs (retained earnings, current assets or liabilities).
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
The accounts lack too many of the lines it needs.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Reported profit comfortably exceeds the cash generated (27M against -2,648M).
Benign
Growth consuming working capital, or the seasonality of the year-end.
Worrying
Profit held up by accounting entries that do not turn into money.
The effective tax rate is 2.7%.
Benign
A favourable geographic mix, or legitimate tax credits.
Worrying
Not sustainable; projecting it forward inflates the valuation.
Net debt is 8.1 times EBITDA.
Benign
A stable sector with predictable cash flows and comfortable maturities.
Worrying
Little room if earnings fall; the maturity schedule is what to check.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$1.92discounted at 7.8% a year · 60% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
112.2×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
18.1×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
1.8×
Free cash flow yield
-90.3%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today2.2B
Everything after, today3.3B
The whole business5.5B
Minus net debt-2.5B
What belongs to shareholders3.1B
Divided among 1.6B shares: <strong>$1.92</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-15B-10B-5B05B10B
2019
2019
2019Reported -3.5B
2020Reported -876,000
2021
2021Reported -10.0B
2022Reported 8.2B
2023Reported 125.0M
2024Reported -6.3B
2025Reported -2.8B
2026Projected 306.3M
2027Projected 311.2M
2028Projected 316.6M
2029Projected 322.4M
2030Projected 328.6M
2031Projected 335.4M
2032Projected 342.7M
2033Projected 350.5M
2034Projected 358.8M
2035Projected 367.8M
2019201920212022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
3.2B
3.3B
3.3B
3.4B
3.4B
3.5B
3.6B
3.7B
3.8B
3.9B
Growth
1.5%
1.6%
1.7%
1.8%
1.9%
2.1%
2.2%
2.3%
2.4%
2.5%
Cash margin
9.5%
9.5%
9.5%
9.5%
9.5%
9.5%
9.5%
9.5%
9.5%
9.5%
Free cash flow
306.3M
311.2M
316.6M
322.4M
328.6M
335.4M
342.7M
350.5M
358.8M
367.8M
Worth today
284.0M
267.6M
252.4M
238.4M
225.3M
213.3M
202.0M
191.6M
181.9M
172.9M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
6.8%
2
2
3
3
4
7.3%
2
2
2
3
3
7.8%
1
2
2
2
3
8.3%
1
1
2
2
2
8.8%
1
1
1
2
2
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
-2.5%
-0.5%
1.5%
3.5%
5.5%
7.6%
1
1
1
2
2
8.6%
1
1
2
2
2
9.5%
1
2
2
2
3
10.5%
2
2
2
3
3
11.5%
2
2
2
3
3
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$0.87
Median$1.93
90th percentile$3.62
$2.00$4.00$6.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$1.32</b> and <b>$2.71</b>; one in ten below $0.87, one in ten above $3.62.
Does the long run make sense?
18.9×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 18.9 times that year's EBITDA.
Free growthIn year 10 free cash flow is at or above after-tax operating profit, yet the model grows 2.5% forever. Growth needs reinvestment; this assumes it comes for free, which flatters the terminal value.
60%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 6 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market—none in the period
Under pre-arranged plans—of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
