TW · Financials(security & commodity brokers, dealers, exchanges & services) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Tradeweb Markets Inc. reported revenue of $2.1 billion in fiscal 2025. Of the $4.8 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 23.8% went to acquisitions and 10.2% to dividends. On the accounting screens, it passes 6 of 6 Piotroski tests; 1 of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 20252.1B
Operating margin40.7%gross margin —
Return on invested capital—
Free cash flow after stock pay1.0B49.9% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA—net debt —
Piotroski F-score6/6tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
01.0B2.0B3.0B
2018
2018
2019
2019Revenue 775.6MOperating income 189.8M
2020Revenue 892.7MOperating income 263.4M
2021Revenue 1.1BOperating income 358.8M
2022Revenue 1.2BOperating income 412.6M
2023Revenue 1.3BOperating income 505.3M
2024Revenue 1.7BOperating income 678.0M
2025Revenue 2.1BOperating income 835.3M
2018201820192019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+20.0%
+18.1%
—
Operating income
+26.5%
+26.0%
—
Net income
+38.0%
+37.3%
—
Earnings per share
+36.6%
+33.8%
—
Free cash flow per share
+21.5%
+18.0%
—
Dividend per share
+14.6%
+9.1%
—
Shares
+1.0%
+2.7%
—
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
GrossOperatingNetFree cash flow
0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%
2018
2018
2019
2019Operating 24.5%Net 10.8%Free cash flow 38.1%
2020Operating 29.5%Net 18.6%Free cash flow 48.4%
2021Operating 33.3%Net 21.1%Free cash flow 52.1%
2022Operating 34.7%Net 26.0%Free cash flow 51.3%
2023Operating 37.8%Net 27.3%Free cash flow 54.4%
2024Operating 39.3%Net 29.1%Free cash flow 49.6%
2025Operating 40.7%Net 39.6%Free cash flow 54.9%
2018201820192019202020212022202320242025
Return on invested capital
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 10.2%
0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%
2018
2018
2019
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2018201820192019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Needs a cost of capital, which comes from the valuation below.
Return on equity
12.5%
Return on assets
9.9%
Asset turnover
0.25×
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
0500.0M1.0B1.5B
2018
2018
2019
2019Net income 83.8MFree cash flow 295.2MAfter stock-based pay 245.4M
2020Net income 166.3MFree cash flow 431.7MAfter stock-based pay 392.5M
2021Net income 226.8MFree cash flow 561.1MAfter stock-based pay 509.2M
2022Net income 309.3MFree cash flow 609.6MAfter stock-based pay 543.0M
2023Net income 364.9MFree cash flow 727.6MAfter stock-based pay 662.4M
2024Net income 501.5MFree cash flow 856.8MAfter stock-based pay 767.1M
2025Net income 812.8MFree cash flow 1.1BAfter stock-based pay 1.0B
2018201820192019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2018–2025
4.8B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 4%167.4M
Acquisitions 24%1.1B
Dividends 10%488.1M
Share buybacks 8%373.4M
Kept, or used to pay down debt 55%2.6B
Over the same years it paid 466.0M in stock. The buybacks did not even cover what was handed out in stock.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$0.00$2.00$4.00$6.00
2018
2018
2019
2019Earnings per share $0.54Free cash flow per share $1.89Dividend per share $0.23
2020Earnings per share $0.88Free cash flow per share $2.29Dividend per share $0.31
2021Earnings per share $1.09Free cash flow per share $2.71Dividend per share $0.31
2022Earnings per share $1.48Free cash flow per share $2.93Dividend per share $0.32
2023Earnings per share $1.72Free cash flow per share $3.42Dividend per share $0.36
2024Earnings per share $2.33Free cash flow per share $3.99Dividend per share $0.40
2025Earnings per share $3.78Free cash flow per share $5.24Dividend per share $0.48
2018201820192019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
140.0M160.0M180.0M200.0M220.0M
2018
2018
2019
2019Diluted shares 156.5M
2020Diluted shares 188.2M
2021Diluted shares 207.3M
2022Diluted shares 208.4M
2023Diluted shares 212.7M
2024Diluted shares 214.9M
2025Diluted shares 214.9M
2018201820192019202020212022202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
—
Interest coverage
430× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
— current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
—
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
6of 6 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
–Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fell — not reportedno data
–More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
–Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
The accounts lack a line it needs (retained earnings, current assets or liabilities).
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
The accounts lack too many of the lines it needs.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Capital spending (41M) is well below depreciation (250M).
Benign
Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.
Worrying
Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$85.38discounted at 10.2% a year · 54% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
22.6×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
16.9×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
8.9×
Free cash flow yield
5.6%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today8.5B
Everything after, today9.9B
The whole business18.3B
Minus net debt-0
What belongs to shareholders18.3B
Divided among 214.9M shares: <strong>$85.38</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
0500.0M1.0B1.5B2.0B
2018
2018
2019
2019Reported 245.4M
2020Reported 392.5M
2021Reported 509.2M
2022Reported 543.0M
2023Reported 662.4M
2024Reported 767.1M
2025Reported 1.0B
2026Projected 876.3M
2027Projected 1.0B
2028Projected 1.2B
2029Projected 1.3B
2030Projected 1.5B
2031Projected 1.6B
2032Projected 1.7B
2033Projected 1.8B
2034Projected 1.9B
2035Projected 2.0B
2018201920202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
2.4B
2.8B
3.2B
3.6B
4.0B
4.4B
4.8B
5.0B
5.3B
5.4B
Growth
18.0%
16.3%
14.6%
12.8%
11.1%
9.4%
7.7%
5.9%
4.2%
2.5%
Cash margin
36.2%
36.2%
36.2%
36.2%
36.2%
36.2%
36.2%
36.2%
36.2%
36.2%
Free cash flow
876.3M
1.0B
1.2B
1.3B
1.5B
1.6B
1.7B
1.8B
1.9B
2.0B
Worth today
795.4M
839.5M
872.9M
894.1M
901.7M
895.3M
875.0M
841.4M
796.0M
740.6M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
9.2%
88
93
99
106
114
9.7%
82
87
92
98
104
10.2%
77
81
85
90
96
10.7%
73
76
80
84
89
11.2%
68
71
75
78
83
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
22.0%
28.9%
62
67
72
78
84
32.6%
67
73
79
85
92
36.2%
73
79
85
92
99
39.8%
79
85
92
100
107
43.4%
84
91
99
107
115
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 5.4%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$64.82
Median$85.46
90th percentile$115.55
$100.00$150.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$73.65</b> and <b>$99.43</b>; one in ten below $64.82, one in ten above $115.55.
Does the long run make sense?
9.1×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 9.1 times that year's EBITDA.
Free growthIn year 10 free cash flow is at or above after-tax operating profit, yet the model grows 2.5% forever. Growth needs reinvestment; this assumes it comes for free, which flatters the terminal value.
54%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
What lenders charge, after the tax saving on interest: 6.67% × (1 − 21.6%) = <strong>5.23%</strong>.
Weighted by how much of each the company uses (book value (no price given)): <strong>10.17%</strong>, the rate every future cash flow is discounted at.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 6 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market$2.5M4 sale(s) by 3 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans100%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.