LPLA · Financials(security & commodity brokers, dealers, exchanges & services) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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LPL Financial Holdings Inc. reported revenue of $17.0 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 17.3% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from 7.9% in 2016 to 9.1%, and it earned 9.3% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $5.6 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 67.8% went to acquisitions and 53.3% to buybacks; the share count fell 12.2%. On the accounting screens, it passes 2 of 7 Piotroski tests; 2 of the six cross-checks between its statements fire.
Revenue, fiscal 202517.0B+17.3% a year over 9 years
Operating margin9.1%gross margin —
Return on invested capital9.3%15.3% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay-1.1B-6.2% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA3.2×net debt 6.2B
Piotroski F-score2/7tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
05.0B10.0B15.0B20.0B
2016Revenue 4.0BOperating income 318.8M
2017Revenue 4.3BOperating income 389.0M
2018Revenue 5.2BOperating income 632.8M
2019Revenue 5.6BOperating income 871.8M
2020Revenue 5.9BOperating income 731.8M
2021Revenue 7.7BOperating income 705.7M
2022Revenue 8.6BOperating income 1.2B
2023Revenue 10.1BOperating income 1.6B
2024Revenue 12.4BOperating income 1.7B
2025Revenue 17.0BOperating income 1.6B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+25.5%
+23.7%
+17.3%
Operating income
+7.9%
+16.2%
+19.2%
Net income
+0.7%
+12.8%
+18.2%
Earnings per share
+1.6%
+13.3%
+19.9%
Dividend per share
+6.7%
+4.0%
+2.1%
Shares
-0.9%
-0.4%
-1.4%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
GrossOperatingNetFree cash flow
-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%
2016Operating 7.9%Net 4.7%Free cash flow 6.5%
2017Operating 9.1%Net 5.6%Free cash flow 8.0%
2018Operating 12.2%Net 8.5%Free cash flow 8.7%
2019Operating 15.5%Net 10.0%Free cash flow 8.3%
2020Operating 12.5%Net 8.0%Free cash flow 10.8%
2021Operating 9.1%Net 6.0%Free cash flow 3.1%
2022Operating 14.4%Net 9.8%Free cash flow 19.1%
2023Operating 16.2%Net 10.6%Free cash flow 1.1%
2024Operating 13.5%Net 8.5%Free cash flow -2.3%
2025Operating 9.1%Net 5.1%Free cash flow -5.8%
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Return on invested capital
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 6.7%
0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%
2016Return on invested capital 6.9%
2017Return on invested capital 7.6%
2018Return on invested capital 14.0%
2019Return on invested capital 19.2%
2020Return on invested capital 15.1%
2021Return on invested capital 12.0%
2022Return on invested capital 19.3%
2023Return on invested capital 20.7%
2024Return on invested capital 15.0%
2025Return on invested capital 9.3%
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
0250.0M500.0M750.0M1.0B
2016Economic profit 4.4M
2017Economic profit 29.9M
2018Economic profit 244.6M
2019Economic profit 428.1M
2020Economic profit 306.7M
2021Economic profit 238.5M
2022Economic profit 613.7M
2023Economic profit 813.7M
2024Economic profit 701.2M
2025Economic profit 319.5M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
16.1%
Return on assets
4.7%
Asset turnover
0.92×
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-2.0B-1.0B01.0B2.0B
2016Net income 191.9MFree cash flow 261.3MAfter stock-based pay 236.4M
2017Net income 238.9MFree cash flow 341.4MAfter stock-based pay 312.9M
2018Net income 439.5MFree cash flow 448.9MAfter stock-based pay 419.7M
2019Net income 559.9MFree cash flow 467.5MAfter stock-based pay 434.6M
2020Net income 472.6MFree cash flow 634.4MAfter stock-based pay 600.4M
2021Net income 459.9MFree cash flow 237.1MAfter stock-based pay 193.0M
2022Net income 845.7MFree cash flow 1.6BAfter stock-based pay 1.6B
2023Net income 1.1BFree cash flow 109.3MAfter stock-based pay 40.7M
2024Net income 1.1BFree cash flow -284.9MAfter stock-based pay -376.7M
2025Net income 863.0MFree cash flow -981.8MAfter stock-based pay -1.1B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025
5.6B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 49%2.7B
Acquisitions 68%3.8B
Dividends 15%865.7M
Share buybacks 53%3.0B
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -85%-4.8B
Over the same years it paid 486.0M in stock. The share count fell 12.2%. 2.5B of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$-20.00$-10.00$0.00$10.00$20.00$30.00
2016Earnings per share $2.13Free cash flow per share $2.90Dividend per share $0.99
2017Earnings per share $2.59Free cash flow per share $3.71Dividend per share $0.98
2018Earnings per share $4.85Free cash flow per share $4.95Dividend per share $0.98
2019Earnings per share $6.62Free cash flow per share $5.52Dividend per share $0.98
2020Earnings per share $5.86Free cash flow per share $7.86Dividend per share $0.98
2021Earnings per share $5.63Free cash flow per share $2.90Dividend per share $0.98
2022Earnings per share $10.40Free cash flow per share $20.16Dividend per share $0.98
2023Earnings per share $13.69Free cash flow per share $1.40Dividend per share $1.18
2024Earnings per share $14.03Free cash flow per share $-3.78Dividend per share $1.19
2025Earnings per share $10.92Free cash flow per share $-12.42Dividend per share $1.19
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
75.0M80.0M85.0M90.0M95.0M
2016Diluted shares 90.0M
2017Diluted shares 92.1M
2018Diluted shares 90.6M
2019Diluted shares 84.6M
2020Diluted shares 80.7M
2021Diluted shares 81.7M
2022Diluted shares 81.3M
2023Diluted shares 77.9M
2024Diluted shares 75.4M
2025Diluted shares 79.1M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
02.0B4.0B6.0B8.0B
2016Net debt 1.4B
2017Net debt 1.6B
2018Net debt 1.9B
2019Net debt 1.8B
2020Net debt 1.5B
2021Net debt 2.3B
2022Net debt 1.9B
2023Net debt 3.3B
2024Net debt 4.5B
2025Net debt 6.2B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
3.2×
Interest coverage
4× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
— current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
—
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
2of 7 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✕Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zerofailed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✕Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)failed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
–More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✕No new sharesShare count did not growfailed
–Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
The accounts lack a line it needs (retained earnings, current assets or liabilities).
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
The accounts lack too many of the lines it needs.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Reported profit comfortably exceeds the cash generated (863M against -411M).
Benign
Growth consuming working capital, or the seasonality of the year-end.
Worrying
Profit held up by accounting entries that do not turn into money.
Net debt is 3.2 times EBITDA.
Benign
A stable sector with predictable cash flows and comfortable maturities.
Worrying
Little room if earnings fall; the maturity schedule is what to check.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$818.78discounted at 6.7% a year · 72% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
75.0×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
36.5×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
4.2×
Free cash flow yield
-1.6%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today19.7B
Everything after, today51.3B
The whole business71.0B
Minus net debt-6.2B
What belongs to shareholders64.7B
Divided among 79.1M shares: <strong>$818.78</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-2.0B02.0B4.0B6.0B
2016Reported 236.4M
2017Reported 312.9M
2018Reported 419.7M
2019Reported 434.6M
2020Reported 600.4M
2021Reported 193.0M
2022Reported 1.6B
2023Reported 40.7M
2024Reported -376.7M
2025Reported -1.1B
2026Projected 1.5B
2027Projected 1.8B
2028Projected 2.2B
2029Projected 2.5B
2030Projected 2.9B
2031Projected 3.2B
2032Projected 3.5B
2033Projected 3.8B
2034Projected 3.9B
2035Projected 4.0B
2016201820202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
21.0B
25.4B
30.2B
35.2B
40.2B
44.9B
49.2B
52.7B
55.3B
56.7B
Growth
23.5%
21.2%
18.8%
16.5%
14.2%
11.8%
9.5%
7.2%
4.8%
2.5%
Cash margin
7.1%
7.1%
7.1%
7.1%
7.1%
7.1%
7.1%
7.1%
7.1%
7.1%
Free cash flow
1.5B
1.8B
2.2B
2.5B
2.9B
3.2B
3.5B
3.8B
3.9B
4.0B
Worth today
1.4B
1.6B
1.8B
1.9B
2.1B
2.2B
2.2B
2.2B
2.2B
2.1B
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
5.7%
852
967
1,117
1,322
1,619
6.2%
746
835
947
1,094
1,295
6.7%
662
732
819
929
1,074
7.2%
590
647
716
801
909
7.7%
531
578
634
702
785
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
19.5%
21.5%
23.5%
25.5%
27.5%
5.7%
551
603
660
720
785
6.4%
618
676
739
806
878
7.1%
685
750
819
893
972
7.8%
752
823
898
979
1,066
8.6%
819
895
977
1,065
1,160
All the inputs moving at once
4,980 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$465.05
Median$813.71
90th percentile$1,442.19
$1,000.00$2,000.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$615.00</b> and <b>$1,096.25</b>; one in ten below $465.05, one in ten above $1,442.19.
Does the long run make sense?
15.1×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 15.1 times that year's EBITDA.
Free growthIn year 10 free cash flow is at or above after-tax operating profit, yet the model grows 2.5% forever. Growth needs reinvestment; this assumes it comes for free, which flatters the terminal value.
72%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 6 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market$153,0491 sale(s) by 1 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans0%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.