TNL · Consumer discretionary(hotels & motels) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Travel & Leisure Co. reported revenue of $4.0 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 1.0% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin narrowed from 17.8% in 2016 to 13.8%, and it earned 8.2% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $5.7 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 57.0% went to buybacks and 28.8% to dividends; the share count fell 39.5%. On the accounting screens, it passes 6 of 8 Piotroski tests; 1 of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 20254.0B+1.0% a year over 9 years
Operating margin13.8%gross margin 93.2%
Return on invested capital8.2%10.4% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay466.0M11.6% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA7.9×net debt 5.3B
Piotroski F-score6/8tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
-2.0B02.0B4.0B6.0B
2016Revenue 3.7BOperating income 658.0M
2017Revenue 3.8BOperating income 439.0M
2018Revenue 3.9BOperating income 523.0M
2019Revenue 4.0BOperating income 812.0M
2020Revenue 2.2BOperating income -105.0M
2021Revenue 3.1BOperating income 618.0M
2022Revenue 3.6BOperating income 653.0M
2023Revenue 3.8BOperating income 720.0M
2024Revenue 3.9BOperating income 733.0M
2025Revenue 4.0BOperating income 553.0M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+4.1%
+13.2%
+1.0%
Operating income
-5.4%
—
-1.9%
Net income
-13.6%
—
-10.3%
Earnings per share
-6.8%
—
-5.1%
Free cash flow per share
+19.1%
+17.2%
+0.2%
Dividend per share
+11.6%
+6.8%
+1.1%
Shares
-7.4%
-4.9%
-5.4%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 3.5%
-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%
2016Return on invested capital 58.1%
2017Return on invested capital -1.6%
2018
2019Return on invested capital 11.6%
2020Return on invested capital -2.1%
2021Return on invested capital 10.0%
2022Return on invested capital 10.1%
2023Return on invested capital 12.3%
2024Return on invested capital 11.5%
2025Return on invested capital 8.2%
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-400.0M-200.0M0200.0M400.0M600.0M
2016Economic profit 401.4M
2017Economic profit -44.6M
2018
2019Economic profit 405.9M
2020Economic profit -305.8M
2021Economic profit 291.7M
2022Economic profit 311.5M
2023Economic profit 413.6M
2024Economic profit 373.9M
2025Economic profit 214.5M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
—
Return on assets
3.4%
Asset turnover
0.59×
Overheads (SG&A)
12.4% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-500.0M0500.0M1.0B
2016Net income 611.0MFree cash flow 846.0MAfter stock-based pay 789.0M
2017Net income 854.0MFree cash flow 879.0MAfter stock-based pay 820.0M
2018Net income 672.0MFree cash flow 343.0MAfter stock-based pay 214.0M
2019Net income 507.0MFree cash flow 344.0MAfter stock-based pay 320.0M
2020Net income -255.0MFree cash flow 305.0MAfter stock-based pay 285.0M
2021Net income 308.0MFree cash flow 511.0MAfter stock-based pay 479.0M
2022Net income 357.0MFree cash flow 390.0MAfter stock-based pay 345.0M
2023Net income 396.0MFree cash flow 276.0MAfter stock-based pay 238.0M
2024Net income 411.0MFree cash flow 383.0MAfter stock-based pay 342.0M
2025Net income 230.0MFree cash flow 523.0MAfter stock-based pay 466.0M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025
5.7B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 16%881.0M
Acquisitions 4%215.0M
Dividends 29%1.6B
Share buybacks 57%3.2B
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -5%-285.0M
Over the same years it paid 502.0M in stock. The share count fell 39.5%. 2.7B of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$-5.00$0.00$5.00$10.00
2016Earnings per share $5.52Free cash flow per share $7.65Dividend per share $2.02
2017Earnings per share $8.24Free cash flow per share $8.48Dividend per share $2.33
2018Earnings per share $6.77Free cash flow per share $3.46Dividend per share $1.96
2019Earnings per share $5.49Free cash flow per share $3.72Dividend per share $1.80
2020Earnings per share $-2.96Free cash flow per share $3.54Dividend per share $1.60
2021Earnings per share $3.53Free cash flow per share $5.85Dividend per share $1.25
2022Earnings per share $4.24Free cash flow per share $4.63Dividend per share $1.60
2023Earnings per share $5.28Free cash flow per share $3.68Dividend per share $1.81
2024Earnings per share $5.81Free cash flow per share $5.42Dividend per share $2.01
2025Earnings per share $3.44Free cash flow per share $7.82Dividend per share $2.23
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
60.0M80.0M100.0M120.0M
2016Diluted shares 110.6M
2017Diluted shares 103.7M
2018Diluted shares 99.2M
2019Diluted shares 92.4M
2020Diluted shares 86.1M
2021Diluted shares 87.3M
2022Diluted shares 84.2M
2023Diluted shares 75.0M
2024Diluted shares 70.7M
2025Diluted shares 66.9M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
-2.0B02.0B4.0B6.0B
2016Net debt -91.0M
2017Net debt 56.0M
2018
2019Net debt 5.2B
2020Net debt 5.2B
2021Net debt 4.9B
2022Net debt 5.1B
2023Net debt 5.4B
2024Net debt 5.4B
2025Net debt 5.3B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
7.9×
Interest coverage
2× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
— current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
—
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
6of 8 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
–More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
✕Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforefailed
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
The accounts lack a line it needs (retained earnings, current assets or liabilities).
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
The accounts lack too many of the lines it needs.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Net debt is 7.9 times EBITDA.
Benign
A stable sector with predictable cash flows and comfortable maturities.
Worrying
Little room if earnings fall; the maturity schedule is what to check.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
92% of the value comes from after year 10: this valuation rests mostly on the long run, which is exactly what is least known.
Value per share, with these assumptions$1,177.07discounted at 3.5% a year · 92% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
342.4×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
124.2×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
20.9×
Free cash flow yield
0.6%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today7.1B
Everything after, today77.0B
The whole business84.1B
Minus net debt-5.3B
What belongs to shareholders78.7B
Divided among 66.9M shares: <strong>$1,177.07</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
0500.0M1.0B1.5B
2016Reported 789.0M
2017Reported 820.0M
2018Reported 214.0M
2019Reported 320.0M
2020Reported 285.0M
2021Reported 479.0M
2022Reported 345.0M
2023Reported 238.0M
2024Reported 342.0M
2025Reported 466.0M
2026Projected 588.1M
2027Projected 657.7M
2028Projected 727.9M
2029Projected 797.0M
2030Projected 863.4M
2031Projected 925.3M
2032Projected 980.8M
2033Projected 1.0B
2034Projected 1.1B
2035Projected 1.1B
2016201820202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
4.5B
5.1B
5.6B
6.2B
6.7B
7.1B
7.6B
7.9B
8.2B
8.4B
Growth
13.0%
11.8%
10.7%
9.5%
8.3%
7.2%
6.0%
4.8%
3.7%
2.5%
Cash margin
12.9%
12.9%
12.9%
12.9%
12.9%
12.9%
12.9%
12.9%
12.9%
12.9%
Free cash flow
588.1M
657.7M
727.9M
797.0M
863.4M
925.3M
980.8M
1.0B
1.1B
1.1B
Worth today
568.1M
613.6M
656.0M
693.8M
726.0M
751.5M
769.4M
779.1M
780.2M
772.4M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2.5%
1,226
2,422
—
—
—
3.0%
794
1,200
2,373
—
—
3.5%
575
778
1,177
2,331
—
4.0%
442
562
760
1,151
2,278
4.5%
354
433
550
744
1,127
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
9.0%
11.0%
13.0%
15.0%
17.0%
10.3%
767
848
934
1,028
1,129
11.7%
869
959
1,056
1,161
1,275
12.9%
970
1,069
1,177
1,294
1,419
14.2%
1,071
1,180
1,298
1,426
1,565
15.5%
1,171
1,290
1,419
1,559
1,709
All the inputs moving at once
2,716 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$355.69
Median$669.17
90th percentile$1,150.03
$500.00$1,000.00$1,500.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$485.35</b> and <b>$904.47</b>; one in ten below $355.69, one in ten above $1,150.03.
Does the long run make sense?
76.6×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 76.6 times that year's EBITDA.
Free growthIn year 10 free cash flow is at or above after-tax operating profit, yet the model grows 2.5% forever. Growth needs reinvestment; this assumes it comes for free, which flatters the terminal value.
92%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 5 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market$8.6M5 sale(s) by 4 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans40%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.