RRX · Industrials(general industrial machinery & equipment, nec) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Regal Rexnord Corp reported revenue of $5.9 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 7.0% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from 10.0% in 2016 to 11.5%, and it earned 4.7% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $5.1 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 102.8% went to acquisitions and 18.5% to dividends; the share count rose 48.0%. On the accounting screens, it passes 7 of 9 Piotroski tests and its Altman Z'' of 2.55 is in the grey zone; 2 of the six cross-checks between its statements fire.
Revenue, fiscal 20255.9B+7.0% a year over 9 years
Operating margin11.5%gross margin 37.4%
Return on invested capital4.7%23.9% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay855.8M14.4% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA5.1×net debt 4.3B
Piotroski F-score7/9tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
02.0B4.0B6.0B8.0B
2016Revenue 3.2BOperating income 322.5M
2017Revenue 3.4BOperating income 331.1M
2018Revenue 3.6BOperating income 347.0M
2019Revenue 3.2BOperating income 351.1M
2021Revenue 2.9BOperating income 278.0M
2022Revenue 3.8BOperating income 358.3M
2022Revenue 5.2BOperating income 690.4M
2023Revenue 6.3BOperating income 377.1M
2024Revenue 6.0BOperating income 630.0M
2025Revenue 5.9BOperating income 680.8M
2016201720182019202120222022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+4.4%
+15.3%
+7.0%
Operating income
-0.5%
+19.6%
+8.7%
Net income
-17.0%
+8.3%
+3.6%
Earnings per share
-16.8%
-1.8%
-0.8%
Free cash flow per share
+36.7%
+7.1%
+5.4%
Dividend per share
+1.0%
+3.2%
+4.6%
Shares
-0.2%
+10.3%
+4.5%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 8.4%
0.0%50.0%100.0%150.0%
2016Return on invested capital 7.3%
2017Return on invested capital 7.5%
2018Return on invested capital 7.7%
2019Return on invested capital 8.0%
2021Return on invested capital 5.9%
2022Return on invested capital 3.3%
2022Return on invested capital 6.6%
2023Return on invested capital 100.6%
2024Return on invested capital 4.3%
2025Return on invested capital 4.7%
2016201720182019202120222022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-5.0B05.0B10.0B15.0B
2016Economic profit -35.6M
2017Economic profit -29.8M
2018Economic profit -22.9M
2019Economic profit -11.8M
2021Economic profit -87.8M
2022Economic profit -422.0M
2022Economic profit -147.8M
2023Economic profit 11.7B
2024Economic profit -477.3M
2025Economic profit -431.9M
2016201720182019202120222022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
4.1%
Return on assets
2.0%
Asset turnover
0.43×
Research & development
3.3% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-250.0M0250.0M500.0M750.0M1.0B
2016Net income 203.4MFree cash flow 377.1MAfter stock-based pay 363.8M
2017Net income 213.0MFree cash flow 226.7MAfter stock-based pay 213.1M
2018Net income 231.2MFree cash flow 285.1MAfter stock-based pay 268.2M
2019Net income 238.9MFree cash flow 316.1MAfter stock-based pay 303.1M
2021Net income 187.7MFree cash flow 387.9MAfter stock-based pay 378.7M
2022Net income 229.6MFree cash flow 303.2MAfter stock-based pay 278.3M
2022Net income 488.9MFree cash flow 352.4MAfter stock-based pay 329.9M
2023Net income -57.4MFree cash flow 596.2MAfter stock-based pay 538.0M
2024Net income 196.2MFree cash flow 499.9MAfter stock-based pay 465.1M
2025Net income 279.5MFree cash flow 893.1MAfter stock-based pay 855.8M
2016201720182019202120222022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025
5.1B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 16%812.5M
Acquisitions 103%5.2B
Dividends 19%936.7M
Share buybacks 13%678.0M
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -51%-2.6B
Over the same years it paid 243.7M in stock. The share count rose 48.0%. 434.3M of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$-5.00$0.00$5.00$10.00$15.00
2016Earnings per share $4.52Free cash flow per share $8.38Dividend per share $0.94
2017Earnings per share $4.74Free cash flow per share $5.05Dividend per share $0.99
2018Earnings per share $5.27Free cash flow per share $6.49Dividend per share $1.08
2019Earnings per share $5.66Free cash flow per share $7.49Dividend per share $1.16
2021Earnings per share $4.60Free cash flow per share $9.51Dividend per share $1.19
2022Earnings per share $4.81Free cash flow per share $6.36Dividend per share $7.04
2022Earnings per share $7.29Free cash flow per share $5.25Dividend per share $1.35
2023Earnings per share $-0.87Free cash flow per share $8.99Dividend per share $1.40
2024Earnings per share $2.94Free cash flow per share $7.49Dividend per share $1.39
2025Earnings per share $4.20Free cash flow per share $13.41Dividend per share $1.40
2016201720182019202120222022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
40.0M50.0M60.0M70.0M
2016Diluted shares 45.0M
2017Diluted shares 44.9M
2018Diluted shares 43.9M
2019Diluted shares 42.2M
2021Diluted shares 40.8M
2022Diluted shares 47.7M
2022Diluted shares 67.1M
2023Diluted shares 66.3M
2024Diluted shares 66.7M
2025Diluted shares 66.6M
2016201720182019202120222022202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
02.0B4.0B6.0B
2016Net debt 1.1B
2017Net debt 1.0B
2018Net debt 1.1B
2019Net debt 806.1M
2021Net debt 460.1M
2022Net debt 1.2B
2022Net debt 1.3B
2023Net debt 5.8B
2024Net debt 5.1B
2025Net debt 4.3B
2016201720182019202120222022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
5.1×
Interest coverage
2× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
2.15 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
102 days collects in 32d, stock 130d, pays in 60d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
7of 9 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
✓Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforepassed
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
2.55grey zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.10 × 6.56+0.68
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.16 × 3.26+0.52
Operating income ÷ assets 0.05 × 6.72+0.33
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.97 × 1.05+1.02
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
The accounts lack too many of the lines it needs.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Capital spending (98M) is well below depreciation (154M).
Benign
Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.
Worrying
Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.
Net debt is 5.1 times EBITDA.
Benign
A stable sector with predictable cash flows and comfortable maturities.
Worrying
Little room if earnings fall; the maturity schedule is what to check.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$2,065.70discounted at 8.4% a year · 62% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
492.2×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
169.8×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
23.9×
Free cash flow yield
0.6%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today54.6B
Everything after, today87.2B
The whole business141.8B
Minus net debt-4.3B
What belongs to shareholders137.6B
Divided among 66.6M shares: <strong>$2,065.70</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
05.0B10.0B15.0B
2016Reported 363.8M
2017Reported 213.1M
2018Reported 268.2M
2019Reported 303.1M
2021Reported 378.7M
2022Reported 278.3M
2022Reported 329.9M
2023Reported 538.0M
2024Reported 465.1M
2025Reported 855.8M
2026Projected 5.5B
2027Projected 6.3B
2028Projected 7.1B
2029Projected 7.8B
2030Projected 8.6B
2031Projected 9.3B
2032Projected 10.0B
2033Projected 10.5B
2034Projected 10.9B
2035Projected 11.2B
2016201820212022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
6.9B
7.8B
8.8B
9.8B
10.7B
11.6B
12.4B
13.1B
13.6B
13.9B
Growth
15.5%
14.1%
12.6%
11.2%
9.7%
8.3%
6.8%
5.4%
3.9%
2.5%
Cash margin
80.1%
80.1%
80.1%
80.1%
80.1%
80.1%
80.1%
80.1%
80.1%
80.1%
Free cash flow
5.5B
6.3B
7.1B
7.8B
8.6B
9.3B
10.0B
10.5B
10.9B
11.2B
Worth today
5.1B
5.3B
5.5B
5.7B
5.8B
5.8B
5.7B
5.5B
5.3B
5.0B
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
7.4%
2,144
2,321
2,534
2,795
3,124
7.9%
1,959
2,105
2,279
2,488
2,744
8.4%
1,800
1,922
2,066
2,236
2,440
8.9%
1,665
1,769
1,890
2,031
2,198
9.4%
1,546
1,636
1,738
1,857
1,995
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
11.5%
13.5%
15.5%
17.5%
19.5%
64.1%
1,452
1,578
1,714
1,859
2,016
72.1%
1,599
1,739
1,890
2,051
2,225
80.1%
1,747
1,901
2,066
2,243
2,433
88.1%
1,895
2,062
2,242
2,435
2,642
96.2%
2,043
2,223
2,418
2,627
2,851
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 12.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$1,471.57
Median$1,974.63
90th percentile$2,765.42
$2,000.00$3,000.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$1,686.35</b> and <b>$2,341.75</b>; one in ten below $1,471.57, one in ten above $2,765.42.
Does the long run make sense?
99.3×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 99.3 times that year's EBITDA.
Free growthIn year 10 free cash flow is at or above after-tax operating profit, yet the model grows 2.5% forever. Growth needs reinvestment; this assumes it comes for free, which flatters the terminal value.
62%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 5 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market$29,9601 sale(s) by 1 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans0%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.