NVT · Industrials(special industry machinery (no metalworking machinery)) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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nVent Electric plc reported revenue of $3.9 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 7.1% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin held steady at about 15.8% from 2017, and it earned 9.1% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $3.8 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 83.1% went to acquisitions and 24.1% to buybacks; the share count fell 9.2%. On the accounting screens, it passes 6 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 3.27 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 1 of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 20253.9B+7.1% a year over 9 years
Operating margin15.8%gross margin 37.7%
Return on invested capital9.1%7.5% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay334.4M8.6% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA2.0×net debt 1.3B
Piotroski F-score6/9tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
01B2B3B4B
2017Revenue 2.1BOperating income 316.1M
2018
2018Revenue 2.2BOperating income 310.8M
2019Revenue 2.2BOperating income 333.1M
2020Revenue 2.0BOperating income 38.4M
2021Revenue 2.5BOperating income 355.4M
2022Revenue 2.3BOperating income 309.0M
2023Revenue 2.7BOperating income 462.7M
2024Revenue 3.0BOperating income 527.1M
2025Revenue 3.9BOperating income 616.8M
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+19.3%
+14.3%
+7.1%
Operating income
+25.9%
+74.2%
+7.7%
Net income
+21.1%
—
+7.8%
Earnings per share
+22.0%
—
+8.9%
Free cash flow per share
+2.4%
+4.7%
+0.9%
Dividend per share
+4.5%
+2.5%
—
Shares
-0.7%
-0.6%
-1.1%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 8.4%
0.0%2.5%5.0%7.5%10.0%
2017Return on invested capital 7.0%
2018
2018Return on invested capital 7.4%
2019Return on invested capital 7.9%
2020Return on invested capital 5.7%
2021Return on invested capital 8.7%
2022Return on invested capital 7.1%
2023Return on invested capital 7.3%
2024Return on invested capital 5.5%
2025Return on invested capital 9.1%
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-200M-150M-100M-50M050M
2017Economic profit -52.1M
2018
2018Economic profit -38.7M
2019Economic profit -19.9M
2020Economic profit -92.1M
2021Economic profit 8.0M
2022Economic profit -52.1M
2023Economic profit -56.1M
2024Economic profit -158.6M
2025Economic profit 34.9M
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
19.0%
Return on assets
10.4%
Asset turnover
0.57×
Research & development
2.0% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
19.9% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-200M0200M400M600M800M
2017Net income 361.7MFree cash flow 377.9MAfter stock-based pay 363.3M
2018
2018Net income 230.8MFree cash flow 304.0MAfter stock-based pay 291.2M
2019Net income 222.7MFree cash flow 297.5MAfter stock-based pay 281.4M
2020Net income -47.2MFree cash flow 304.0MAfter stock-based pay 290.1M
2021Net income 272.9MFree cash flow 333.8MAfter stock-based pay 317.2M
2022Net income 399.8MFree cash flow 354.1MAfter stock-based pay 330.8M
2023Net income 567.1MFree cash flow 462.5MAfter stock-based pay 440.7M
2024Net income 331.8MFree cash flow 569.1MAfter stock-based pay 541.8M
2025Net income 710.2MFree cash flow 371.9MAfter stock-based pay 334.4M
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2017–2025
3.8B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 12%463.0M
Acquisitions 83%3.2B
Dividends 24%911.3M
Share buybacks 24%926.2M
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -43%-1.7B
Over the same years it paid 183.9M in stock. The share count fell 9.2%. 742.3M of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
-$2$0$2$4$6
2017Earnings per share $2.00Free cash flow per share $2.09Dividend per share $0.00
2018
2018Earnings per share $1.28Free cash flow per share $1.68Dividend per share $0.35
2019Earnings per share $1.29Free cash flow per share $1.72Dividend per share $0.70
2020Earnings per share $-0.28Free cash flow per share $1.79Dividend per share $0.70
2021Earnings per share $1.61Free cash flow per share $1.97Dividend per share $0.69
2022Earnings per share $2.38Free cash flow per share $2.10Dividend per share $0.70
2023Earnings per share $3.37Free cash flow per share $2.75Dividend per share $0.69
2024Earnings per share $1.97Free cash flow per share $3.38Dividend per share $0.75
2025Earnings per share $4.31Free cash flow per share $2.26Dividend per share $0.79
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
160M165M170M175M180M185M
2017Diluted shares 181.2M
2018
2018Diluted shares 180.8M
2019Diluted shares 173.0M
2020Diluted shares 169.6M
2021Diluted shares 169.7M
2022Diluted shares 168.3M
2023Diluted shares 168.2M
2024Diluted shares 168.2M
2025Diluted shares 164.6M
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
-1B01B2B3B
2017Net debt -26.9M
2018
2018Net debt 782.7M
2019Net debt 958.2M
2020Net debt 825.5M
2021Net debt 949.7M
2022Net debt 785.7M
2023Net debt 1.6B
2024Net debt 2.0B
2025Net debt 1.3B
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
2.0×
Interest coverage
8× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.63 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
—
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
6of 9 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✕Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)failed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
✕Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforefailed
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
3.27safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.09 × 6.56+0.61
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.25 × 3.26+0.80
Operating income ÷ assets 0.09 × 6.72+0.60
Equity ÷ liabilities 1.19 × 1.05+1.25
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-1.98below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.92
Gross margin slipping 1.07+0.56
Soft assets 0.94+0.38
Sales growth 1.30+1.16
Slower depreciation 1.05+0.12
Overheads vs sales 0.97-0.17
Profit not in cash 0.04+0.17
Leverage rising 0.86-0.28
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Reported profit comfortably exceeds the cash generated (710M against 465M).
Benign
Growth consuming working capital, or the seasonality of the year-end.
Worrying
Profit held up by accounting entries that do not turn into money.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$58.85discounted at 8.4% a year · 61% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
13.6×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
16.2×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
2.8×
Free cash flow yield
3.5%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today4.3B
Everything after, today6.7B
The whole business11.0B
Minus net debt-1.3B
What belongs to shareholders9.7B
Divided among 164.6M shares: <strong>$58.85</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
00.25B0.50B0.75B1.00B
2017Reported 363.3M
2018
2018Reported 291.2M
2019Reported 281.4M
2020Reported 290.1M
2021Reported 317.2M
2022Reported 330.8M
2023Reported 440.7M
2024Reported 541.8M
2025Reported 334.4M
2026Projected 443.9M
2027Projected 502.3M
2028Projected 561.7M
2029Projected 620.7M
2030Projected 677.6M
2031Projected 730.7M
2032Projected 778.2M
2033Projected 818.4M
2034Projected 849.8M
2035Projected 871.0M
2017201820202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
4.5B
5.0B
5.6B
6.2B
6.8B
7.3B
7.8B
8.2B
8.5B
8.7B
Growth
14.5%
13.2%
11.8%
10.5%
9.2%
7.8%
6.5%
5.2%
3.8%
2.5%
Cash margin
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
Free cash flow
443.9M
502.3M
561.7M
620.7M
677.6M
730.7M
778.2M
818.4M
849.8M
871.0M
Worth today
409.4M
427.3M
440.7M
449.1M
452.2M
449.8M
441.8M
428.5M
410.4M
387.9M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
7.4%
61
67
73
81
91
7.9%
56
60
65
72
80
8.4%
51
54
59
64
70
8.9%
46
50
53
58
63
9.4%
43
45
49
52
57
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
10.5%
12.5%
14.5%
16.5%
18.5%
8.0%
40
44
48
52
57
9.0%
44
49
53
58
64
10.0%
49
54
59
64
70
10.9%
53
59
64
70
77
11.9%
58
64
70
76
84
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$39.13
Median$58.88
90th percentile$89.43
$50.00$100.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$47.66</b> and <b>$73.12</b>; one in ten below $39.13, one in ten above $89.43.
Does the long run make sense?
9.9×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 9.9 times that year's EBITDA.
13%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 19% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 13% on the new capital — it has earned 8% on average over the last five years.
61%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 6 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market$12.3M6 sale(s) by 3 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans0%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.