PNR · Industrials(special industry machinery (no metalworking machinery)) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Pentair plc reported revenue of $4.2 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 4.4% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from 13.3% in 2017 to 20.5%, and it earned 13.4% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $5.2 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 52.5% went to acquisitions and 30.5% to buybacks; the share count fell 9.9%. On the accounting screens, it passes 7 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 4.09 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; none of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 20254.2B+4.4% a year over 9 years
Operating margin20.5%gross margin 40.5%
Return on invested capital13.4%13.7% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay709.0M17.0% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA1.7×net debt 1.5B
Piotroski F-score7/9tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
02.0B4.0B6.0B
2017Revenue 2.8BOperating income 378.3M
2018
2018Revenue 3.0BOperating income 436.7M
2019Revenue 3.0BOperating income 432.5M
2020Revenue 3.0BOperating income 461.4M
2021Revenue 3.8BOperating income 636.9M
2022Revenue 4.1BOperating income 595.3M
2023Revenue 4.1BOperating income 739.2M
2024Revenue 4.1BOperating income 803.8M
2025Revenue 4.2BOperating income 857.5M
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+0.4%
+6.7%
+4.4%
Operating income
+12.9%
+13.2%
+9.5%
Net income
+10.8%
+12.8%
-0.2%
Earnings per share
+10.8%
+13.0%
+0.9%
Free cash flow per share
+39.0%
+8.1%
+4.0%
Dividend per share
+5.9%
+5.5%
-3.5%
Shares
-0.0%
-0.2%
-1.2%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 8.5%
0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%
2017Return on invested capital 3.9%
2018
2018Return on invested capital 14.1%
2019Return on invested capital 12.9%
2020Return on invested capital 12.9%
2021Return on invested capital 17.0%
2022Return on invested capital 10.4%
2023Return on invested capital 14.1%
2024Return on invested capital 13.4%
2025Return on invested capital 13.4%
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-400.0M-200.0M0200.0M400.0M
2017Economic profit -298.6M
2018
2018Economic profit 147.8M
2019Economic profit 131.4M
2020Economic profit 131.9M
2021Economic profit 284.3M
2022Economic profit 97.0M
2023Economic profit 293.8M
2024Economic profit 259.2M
2025Economic profit 270.0M
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
16.9%
Return on assets
9.5%
Asset turnover
0.61×
Research & development
2.3% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
17.6% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
0200.0M400.0M600.0M800.0M
2017Net income 666.5MFree cash flow 581.1MAfter stock-based pay 541.5M
2018
2018Net income 347.4MFree cash flow 390.9MAfter stock-based pay 370.0M
2019Net income 355.7MFree cash flow 294.5MAfter stock-based pay 273.1M
2020Net income 358.6MFree cash flow 511.4MAfter stock-based pay 491.1M
2021Net income 553.0MFree cash flow 553.0MAfter stock-based pay 523.2M
2022Net income 480.9MFree cash flow 278.1MAfter stock-based pay 253.2M
2023Net income 622.7MFree cash flow 543.2MAfter stock-based pay 514.1M
2024Net income 625.4MFree cash flow 692.3MAfter stock-based pay 652.6M
2025Net income 653.8MFree cash flow 746.0MAfter stock-based pay 709.0M
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2017–2025
5.2B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 11%572.6M
Acquisitions 53%2.7B
Dividends 28%1.4B
Share buybacks 31%1.6B
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -22%-1.1B
Over the same years it paid 262.7M in stock. The share count fell 9.9%. 1.3B of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$0.00$2.00$4.00$6.00
2017Earnings per share $3.63Free cash flow per share $3.16Dividend per share $1.37
2018
2018Earnings per share $1.96Free cash flow per share $2.20Dividend per share $1.06
2019Earnings per share $2.09Free cash flow per share $1.73Dividend per share $0.72
2020Earnings per share $2.14Free cash flow per share $3.05Dividend per share $0.76
2021Earnings per share $3.30Free cash flow per share $3.30Dividend per share $0.79
2022Earnings per share $2.90Free cash flow per share $1.68Dividend per share $0.84
2023Earnings per share $3.74Free cash flow per share $3.27Dividend per share $0.87
2024Earnings per share $3.74Free cash flow per share $4.14Dividend per share $0.91
2025Earnings per share $3.95Free cash flow per share $4.51Dividend per share $0.99
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
165.0M170.0M175.0M180.0M185.0M
2017Diluted shares 183.7M
2018
2018Diluted shares 177.3M
2019Diluted shares 170.4M
2020Diluted shares 167.4M
2021Diluted shares 167.5M
2022Diluted shares 165.6M
2023Diluted shares 166.3M
2024Diluted shares 167.1M
2025Diluted shares 165.5M
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
01.0B2.0B3.0B
2017Net debt 1.4B
2018
2018Net debt 713.3M
2019Net debt 946.6M
2020Net debt 757.5M
2021Net debt 799.6M
2022Net debt 2.2B
2023Net debt 1.8B
2024Net debt 1.5B
2025Net debt 1.5B
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
1.7×
Interest coverage
12× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.61 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
—
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
7of 9 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
✓Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforepassed
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
4.09safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.08 × 6.56+0.56
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.41 × 3.26+1.34
Operating income ÷ assets 0.12 × 6.72+0.84
Equity ÷ liabilities 1.29 × 1.05+1.35
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.57below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.92
Gross margin slipping 0.97+0.51
Soft assets 1.00+0.40
Sales growth 1.02+0.91
Slower depreciation 1.05+0.12
Overheads vs sales 1.03-0.18
Profit not in cash -0.02-0.11
Leverage rising 0.96-0.31
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
None of the six cross-checks fires for the latest year: receivables and inventory move with revenue, profit turns into cash, investment keeps up with depreciation, the tax rate is ordinary and debt is moderate.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$78.99discounted at 8.5% a year · 58% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
20.0×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
15.9×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
3.5×
Free cash flow yield
5.4%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today6.1B
Everything after, today8.5B
The whole business14.6B
Minus net debt-1.5B
What belongs to shareholders13.1B
Divided among 165.5M shares: <strong>$78.99</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
0500.0M1.0B1.5B
2017Reported 541.5M
2018
2018Reported 370.0M
2019Reported 273.1M
2020Reported 491.1M
2021Reported 523.2M
2022Reported 253.2M
2023Reported 514.1M
2024Reported 652.6M
2025Reported 709.0M
2026Projected 765.7M
2027Projected 812.0M
2028Projected 857.6M
2029Projected 901.9M
2030Projected 944.5M
2031Projected 984.9M
2032Projected 1.0B
2033Projected 1.1B
2034Projected 1.1B
2035Projected 1.1B
2017201820202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
4.4B
4.7B
5.0B
5.2B
5.5B
5.7B
5.9B
6.1B
6.3B
6.5B
Growth
6.5%
6.1%
5.6%
5.2%
4.7%
4.3%
3.8%
3.4%
2.9%
2.5%
Cash margin
17.2%
17.2%
17.2%
17.2%
17.2%
17.2%
17.2%
17.2%
17.2%
17.2%
Free cash flow
765.7M
812.0M
857.6M
901.9M
944.5M
984.9M
1.0B
1.1B
1.1B
1.1B
Worth today
705.9M
690.2M
672.1M
651.6M
629.1M
604.9M
579.0M
551.9M
523.8M
495.0M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
7.5%
82
89
97
107
120
8.0%
75
81
87
95
105
8.5%
69
73
79
86
94
9.0%
63
67
72
78
84
9.5%
59
62
66
71
76
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
2.5%
4.5%
6.5%
8.5%
10.5%
13.8%
54
59
65
71
78
15.5%
59
65
72
79
86
17.2%
65
72
79
87
95
18.9%
71
78
86
94
103
20.7%
77
85
93
102
112
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.6%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$56.10
Median$79.16
90th percentile$116.03
$50.00$100.00$150.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$65.87</b> and <b>$95.98</b>; one in ten below $56.10, one in ten above $116.03.
Does the long run make sense?
13.5×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 13.5 times that year's EBITDA.
106%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 2% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 106% on the new capital — it has earned 14% on average over the last five years.
58%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 3 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market—none in the period
Under pre-arranged plans—of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.