MAA · Real estate(real estate investment trusts) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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MID America Apartment Communities Inc. reported revenue of $2.2 billion in fiscal 2025. Of the $8.3 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 57.7% went to dividends and 31.6% back into the business; the share count rose 3.2%. On the accounting screens, it passes 3 of 6 Piotroski tests; 2 of the six cross-checks between its statements fire.
Revenue, fiscal 20252.2B
Operating margin29.2%gross margin —
Return on invested capital—
Free cash flow after stock pay701.1M31.7% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA—net debt —
Piotroski F-score3/6tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
01.0B2.0B3.0B
2016
2017Revenue 1.5BOperating income 496.5M
2018Revenue 1.6BOperating income 405.4M
2019Revenue 1.6BOperating income 548.5M
2020Revenue 1.7BOperating income 433.4M
2021Revenue 1.8BOperating income 720.0M
2022Revenue 2.0BOperating income 801.7M
2023Revenue 2.1BOperating income 720.1M
2024Revenue 2.2BOperating income 713.4M
2025Revenue 2.2BOperating income 644.3M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+3.0%
+5.7%
—
Operating income
-7.0%
+8.3%
—
Net income
-11.2%
+11.9%
—
Earnings per share
-11.6%
+11.4%
—
Free cash flow per share
-2.4%
+3.2%
—
Dividend per share
+9.0%
+8.7%
—
Shares
+0.4%
+0.5%
+0.4%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
GrossOperatingNetFree cash flow
0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%
2016
2017Operating 32.5%Net 21.5%Free cash flow 20.7%
2018Operating 25.8%Net 14.2%Free cash flow 30.5%
2019Operating 33.4%Net 21.6%Free cash flow 36.0%
2020Operating 25.8%Net 15.2%Free cash flow 35.7%
2021Operating 40.5%Net 30.0%Free cash flow 34.6%
2022Operating 39.7%Net 31.6%Free cash flow 37.7%
2023Operating 33.5%Net 25.7%Free cash flow 37.0%
2024Operating 32.6%Net 24.1%Free cash flow 35.4%
2025Operating 29.2%Net 20.2%Free cash flow 32.5%
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Return on invested capital
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 10.2%
0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Needs a cost of capital, which comes from the valuation below.
Return on equity
7.9%
Return on assets
3.7%
Asset turnover
0.18×
Overheads (SG&A)
2.5% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
0200.0M400.0M600.0M800.0M
2016
2017Net income 328.4MFree cash flow 316.9MAfter stock-based pay 306.3M
2018Net income 222.9MFree cash flow 479.6MAfter stock-based pay 467.1M
2019Net income 353.8MFree cash flow 591.2MAfter stock-based pay 577.6M
2020Net income 255.0MFree cash flow 598.4MAfter stock-based pay 584.1M
2021Net income 533.8MFree cash flow 615.3MAfter stock-based pay 598.7M
2022Net income 637.4MFree cash flow 762.3MAfter stock-based pay 743.5M
2023Net income 552.8MFree cash flow 796.0MAfter stock-based pay 780.3M
2024Net income 527.5MFree cash flow 775.9MAfter stock-based pay 760.1M
2025Net income 446.9MFree cash flow 717.9MAfter stock-based pay 701.1M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025
8.3B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 32%2.6B
Acquisitions 0%0
Dividends 58%4.8B
Share buybacks 0%27.2M
Kept, or used to pay down debt 10%858.5M
Over the same years it paid 147.0M in stock. The share count rose 3.2%. The buybacks did not even cover what was handed out in stock.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$0.00$2.00$4.00$6.00$8.00
2016
2017Earnings per share $2.89Free cash flow per share $2.79Dividend per share $3.48
2018Earnings per share $1.96Free cash flow per share $4.21Dividend per share $3.69
2019Earnings per share $3.10Free cash flow per share $5.18Dividend per share $3.84
2020Earnings per share $2.23Free cash flow per share $5.23Dividend per share $3.99
2021Earnings per share $4.64Free cash flow per share $5.35Dividend per share $4.09
2022Earnings per share $5.51Free cash flow per share $6.60Dividend per share $4.67
2023Earnings per share $4.74Free cash flow per share $6.82Dividend per share $5.59
2024Earnings per share $4.52Free cash flow per share $6.64Dividend per share $5.88
2025Earnings per share $3.81Free cash flow per share $6.13Dividend per share $6.05
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
113.0M114.0M115.0M116.0M117.0M118.0M
2016Diluted shares 113.5M
2017Diluted shares 113.7M
2018Diluted shares 113.8M
2019Diluted shares 114.1M
2020Diluted shares 114.5M
2021Diluted shares 115.0M
2022Diluted shares 115.6M
2023Diluted shares 116.6M
2024Diluted shares 116.8M
2025Diluted shares 117.1M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
—
Interest coverage
3× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
— current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
—
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
3of 6 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
–Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fell — not reportedno data
–More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✕No new sharesShare count did not growfailed
–Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
The accounts lack a line it needs (retained earnings, current assets or liabilities).
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
The accounts lack too many of the lines it needs.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Capital spending (360M) is well below depreciation (623M).
Benign
Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.
Worrying
Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.
The effective tax rate is 1.0%.
Benign
A favourable geographic mix, or legitimate tax credits.
Worrying
Not sustainable; projecting it forward inflates the valuation.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$120.01discounted at 10.2% a year · 50% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
31.5×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
11.1×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
6.4×
Free cash flow yield
5.0%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today7.1B
Everything after, today7.0B
The whole business14.1B
Minus net debt-0
What belongs to shareholders14.1B
Divided among 117.1M shares: <strong>$120.01</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
0500.0M1.0B1.5B
2016
2017Reported 306.3M
2018Reported 467.1M
2019Reported 577.6M
2020Reported 584.1M
2021Reported 598.7M
2022Reported 743.5M
2023Reported 780.3M
2024Reported 760.1M
2025Reported 701.1M
2026Projected 982.8M
2027Projected 1.0B
2028Projected 1.1B
2029Projected 1.1B
2030Projected 1.2B
2031Projected 1.2B
2032Projected 1.3B
2033Projected 1.3B
2034Projected 1.3B
2035Projected 1.4B
2016201820202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
2.3B
2.5B
2.6B
2.7B
2.8B
2.9B
3.0B
3.1B
3.2B
3.3B
Growth
5.5%
5.2%
4.8%
4.5%
4.2%
3.8%
3.5%
3.2%
2.8%
2.5%
Cash margin
42.2%
42.2%
42.2%
42.2%
42.2%
42.2%
42.2%
42.2%
42.2%
42.2%
Free cash flow
982.8M
1.0B
1.1B
1.1B
1.2B
1.2B
1.3B
1.3B
1.3B
1.4B
Worth today
892.1M
851.6M
810.4M
768.6M
726.8M
685.0M
643.5M
602.6M
562.5M
523.3M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
9.2%
124
131
138
147
158
9.7%
116
122
129
136
145
10.2%
109
114
120
127
134
10.7%
103
108
113
118
125
11.2%
98
102
106
111
116
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
1.5%
3.5%
5.5%
7.5%
9.5%
33.7%
87
94
102
110
119
38.0%
95
102
111
120
130
42.2%
102
111
120
130
141
46.4%
110
119
129
140
152
50.6%
117
127
138
150
162
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 6.3%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$92.02
Median$120.33
90th percentile$161.19
$100.00$150.00$200.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$104.07</b> and <b>$138.88</b>; one in ten below $92.02, one in ten above $161.19.
Does the long run make sense?
9.8×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 9.8 times that year's EBITDA.
Free growthIn year 10 free cash flow is at or above after-tax operating profit, yet the model grows 2.5% forever. Growth needs reinvestment; this assumes it comes for free, which flatters the terminal value.
50%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
What lenders charge, after the tax saving on interest: 6.67% × (1 − 1.0%) = <strong>6.60%</strong>.
Weighted by how much of each the company uses (book value (no price given)): <strong>10.17%</strong>, the rate every future cash flow is discounted at.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 5 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market$141,4002 purchase(s) by 1 insider(s)
Sold on the open market—none in the period
Under pre-arranged plans—of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.