AMT · Real estate(real estate investment trusts) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
American Tower Corp reported revenue of $935.9 million in fiscal 2025, after shrinking 18.3% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from 32.0% in 2016 to 517.8%, and it earned 59.4% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $41.0 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 79.7% went to acquisitions and 51.3% to dividends; the share count rose 9.2%. On the accounting screens, it passes 6 of 8 Piotroski tests and its Altman Z'' of -0.11 is in the distress zone; none of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 2025935.9M-18.3% a year over 9 years
Operating margin517.8%gross margin —
Return on invested capital59.4%33.6% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay3.6B385.7% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA0.3×net debt 1.9B
Piotroski F-score6/8tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
02.0B4.0B6.0B8.0B
2016Revenue 5.8BOperating income 1.9B
2017Revenue 6.7BOperating income 2.0B
2018Revenue 491.3MOperating income 1.9B
2019Revenue 527.2MOperating income 2.7B
2020Revenue 495.7MOperating income 2.9B
2021Revenue 717.2MOperating income 3.1B
2022Revenue 840.7MOperating income 2.7B
2023Revenue 747.3MOperating income 3.1B
2024Revenue 774.6MOperating income 4.5B
2025Revenue 935.9MOperating income 4.8B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+3.6%
+13.6%
-18.3%
Operating income
+21.0%
+10.9%
+11.3%
Net income
+15.7%
+9.2%
+11.9%
Earnings per share
+15.2%
+8.2%
+10.8%
Free cash flow per share
+27.0%
+4.8%
+6.2%
Dividend per share
+5.0%
+9.4%
+14.1%
Shares
+0.4%
+1.0%
+1.0%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 10.8%
0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%
2016Return on invested capital 6.3%
2017
2018Return on invested capital 21.3%
2019Return on invested capital 33.7%
2020Return on invested capital 54.9%
2021Return on invested capital 5.3%
2022Return on invested capital 5.3%
2023Return on invested capital 40.5%
2024Return on invested capital 57.4%
2025Return on invested capital 59.4%
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-4.0B-2.0B02.0B4.0B
2016Economic profit -1.1B
2017
2018Economic profit 853.0M
2019Economic profit 1.8B
2020Economic profit 2.2B
2021Economic profit -2.9B
2022Economic profit -2.7B
2023Economic profit 2.2B
2024Economic profit 3.3B
2025Economic profit 3.4B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
72.0%
Return on assets
4.2%
Asset turnover
0.01×
Overheads (SG&A)
100.5% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
01.0B2.0B3.0B4.0B
2016Net income 956.4MFree cash flow 2.0BAfter stock-based pay 1.9B
2017Net income 1.2BFree cash flow 2.1BAfter stock-based pay 2.0B
2018Net income 1.2BFree cash flow 2.8BAfter stock-based pay 2.7B
2019Net income 1.9BFree cash flow 2.8BAfter stock-based pay 2.6B
2020Net income 1.7BFree cash flow 2.8BAfter stock-based pay 2.7B
2021Net income 2.6BFree cash flow 3.4BAfter stock-based pay 3.3B
2022Net income 1.7BFree cash flow 1.8BAfter stock-based pay 1.7B
2023Net income 1.4BFree cash flow 2.9BAfter stock-based pay 2.7B
2024Net income 2.3BFree cash flow 3.7BAfter stock-based pay 3.5B
2025Net income 2.6BFree cash flow 3.8BAfter stock-based pay 3.6B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025
41.0B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 31%12.7B
Acquisitions 80%32.7B
Dividends 51%21.0B
Share buybacks 4%1.5B
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -66%-26.9B
Over the same years it paid 1.4B in stock. The share count rose 9.2%. 27.7M of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$0.00$2.50$5.00$7.50$10.00
2016Earnings per share $2.23Free cash flow per share $4.71Dividend per share $2.06
2017Earnings per share $2.87Free cash flow per share $4.92Dividend per share $2.49
2018Earnings per share $2.79Free cash flow per share $6.40Dividend per share $2.99
2019Earnings per share $4.24Free cash flow per share $6.20Dividend per share $3.60
2020Earnings per share $3.79Free cash flow per share $6.39Dividend per share $4.32
2021Earnings per share $5.66Free cash flow per share $7.60Dividend per share $5.01
2022Earnings per share $3.67Free cash flow per share $3.94Dividend per share $5.87
2023Earnings per share $2.93Free cash flow per share $6.26Dividend per share $6.44
2024Earnings per share $4.87Free cash flow per share $7.91Dividend per share $6.47
2025Earnings per share $5.61Free cash flow per share $8.07Dividend per share $6.79
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
420.0M430.0M440.0M450.0M460.0M470.0M
2016Diluted shares 429.3M
2017Diluted shares 431.7M
2018Diluted shares 443.0M
2019Diluted shares 445.5M
2020Diluted shares 446.1M
2021Diluted shares 453.3M
2022Diluted shares 462.8M
2023Diluted shares 467.2M
2024Diluted shares 468.1M
2025Diluted shares 468.8M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
-20.0B020.0B40.0B60.0B
2016Net debt 17.7B
2017
2018Net debt 1.5B
2019Net debt 1.4B
2020Net debt -956.5M
2021Net debt 46.1B
2022Net debt 41.9B
2023Net debt 1.3B
2024Net debt 1.7B
2025Net debt 1.9B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
0.3×
Interest coverage
4× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
0.40 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
— collects in 254d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
6of 8 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
✕No new sharesShare count did not growfailed
–Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
-0.11distress zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets -0.07 × 6.56-0.43
Retained earnings ÷ assets -0.08 × 3.26-0.26
Operating income ÷ assets 0.08 × 6.72+0.52
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.07 × 1.05+0.07
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
The accounts lack too many of the lines it needs.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
None of the six cross-checks fires for the latest year: receivables and inventory move with revenue, profit turns into cash, investment keeps up with depreciation, the tax rate is ordinary and debt is moderate.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$193.54discounted at 10.8% a year · 50% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
34.5×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
13.5×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
99.0×
Free cash flow yield
4.0%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today46.3B
Everything after, today46.4B
The whole business92.6B
Minus net debt-1.9B
What belongs to shareholders90.7B
Divided among 468.8M shares: <strong>$193.54</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
05.0B10.0B15.0B
2016Reported 1.9B
2017Reported 2.0B
2018Reported 2.7B
2019Reported 2.6B
2020Reported 2.7B
2021Reported 3.3B
2022Reported 1.7B
2023Reported 2.7B
2024Reported 3.5B
2025Reported 3.6B
2026Projected 5.5B
2027Projected 6.2B
2028Projected 6.8B
2029Projected 7.5B
2030Projected 8.2B
2031Projected 8.8B
2032Projected 9.3B
2033Projected 9.8B
2034Projected 10.1B
2035Projected 10.4B
2016201820202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
1.1B
1.2B
1.3B
1.5B
1.6B
1.7B
1.8B
1.9B
2.0B
2.0B
Growth
13.5%
12.3%
11.1%
9.8%
8.6%
7.4%
6.2%
4.9%
3.7%
2.5%
Cash margin
516.3%
516.3%
516.3%
516.3%
516.3%
516.3%
516.3%
516.3%
516.3%
516.3%
Free cash flow
5.5B
6.2B
6.8B
7.5B
8.2B
8.8B
9.3B
9.8B
10.1B
10.4B
Worth today
5.0B
5.0B
5.0B
5.0B
4.9B
4.7B
4.5B
4.3B
4.0B
3.7B
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
9.8%
200
211
223
236
252
10.3%
188
197
207
219
232
10.8%
176
185
194
204
215
11.3%
166
174
181
190
200
11.8%
157
164
171
178
187
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
9.5%
11.5%
13.5%
15.5%
17.5%
413.1%
140
151
163
177
191
464.7%
152
165
178
193
209
516.3%
165
179
194
209
226
568.0%
178
193
209
226
244
619.6%
190
206
224
242
262
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 77.4%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$56.62
Median$66.42
90th percentile$78.88
$60.00$80.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$61.08</b> and <b>$72.61</b>; one in ten below $56.62, one in ten above $78.88.
Does the long run make sense?
8.7×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 8.7 times that year's EBITDA.
Free growthIn year 10 free cash flow is at or above after-tax operating profit, yet the model grows 2.5% forever. Growth needs reinvestment; this assumes it comes for free, which flatters the terminal value.
50%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
What lenders charge, after the tax saving on interest: 13.18% × (1 − 13.7%) = <strong>11.38%</strong>.
Weighted by how much of each the company uses (book value (no price given)): <strong>10.76%</strong>, the rate every future cash flow is discounted at.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.