O · Real estate(real estate investment trusts) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
Realty Income Corp reported revenue of $5.7 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 20.1% a year over the previous 9 years. Of the $19.2 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 75.9% went to dividends; the share count rose 255.3%. On the accounting screens, it passes 5 of 6 Piotroski tests; 2 of the six cross-checks between its statements fire.
Revenue, fiscal 20255.7B+20.1% a year over 9 years
Operating margin20.1%gross margin —
Return on invested capital—
Free cash flow after stock pay3.8B66.7% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA—net debt —
Piotroski F-score5/6tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
02.0B4.0B6.0B
2016Revenue 1.1B
2017Revenue 1.2B
2018Revenue 1.3B
2019Revenue 1.5BOperating income 734.6M
2020Revenue 1.6BOperating income 720.5M
2021Revenue 2.1BOperating income 716.0M
2022Revenue 3.3BOperating income 1.4B
2023Revenue 4.1BOperating income 1.7B
2024Revenue 5.3BOperating income 933.9M
2025Revenue 5.7BOperating income 1.2B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+19.8%
+28.4%
+20.1%
Operating income
-5.8%
+9.9%
—
Net income
+6.8%
+21.8%
+14.4%
Earnings per share
-6.4%
+0.4%
-0.6%
Free cash flow per share
+1.8%
+5.8%
+3.7%
Dividend per share
+2.8%
+2.9%
+3.4%
Shares
+14.1%
+21.3%
+15.1%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
GrossOperatingNetFree cash flow
0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%
2016Net 28.6%Free cash flow 71.3%
2017Net 26.2%Free cash flow 70.8%
2018Net 27.4%Free cash flow 68.9%
2019Operating 49.4%Net 29.3%Free cash flow 70.2%
2020Operating 43.7%Net 24.0%Free cash flow 67.2%
2021Operating 34.4%Net 17.3%Free cash flow 62.6%
2022Operating 41.4%Net 26.0%Free cash flow 73.8%
2023Operating 40.7%Net 21.4%Free cash flow 70.9%
2024Operating 17.7%Net 16.3%Free cash flow 65.5%
2025Operating 20.1%Net 18.4%Free cash flow 67.2%
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Return on invested capital
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 10.2%
0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Needs a cost of capital, which comes from the valuation below.
Return on equity
2.7%
Return on assets
1.5%
Asset turnover
0.08×
Overheads (SG&A)
3.5% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
01.0B2.0B3.0B4.0B
2016Net income 315.6MFree cash flow 786.4MAfter stock-based pay 774.4M
2017Net income 318.8MFree cash flow 860.6MAfter stock-based pay 846.7M
2018Net income 363.6MFree cash flow 915.4MAfter stock-based pay 888.1M
2019Net income 436.5MFree cash flow 1.0BAfter stock-based pay 1.0B
2020Net income 395.5MFree cash flow 1.1BAfter stock-based pay 1.1B
2021Net income 359.5MFree cash flow 1.3BAfter stock-based pay 1.3B
2022Net income 869.4MFree cash flow 2.5BAfter stock-based pay 2.4B
2023Net income 872.3MFree cash flow 2.9BAfter stock-based pay 2.9B
2024Net income 860.8MFree cash flow 3.5BAfter stock-based pay 3.4B
2025Net income 1.1BFree cash flow 3.9BAfter stock-based pay 3.8B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025
19.2B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 3%522.8M
Acquisitions 2%366.0M
Dividends 76%14.6B
Share buybacks 0%0
Kept, or used to pay down debt 19%3.7B
Over the same years it paid 261.3M in stock. The share count rose 255.3%.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$0.00$2.00$4.00$6.00
2016Earnings per share $1.23Free cash flow per share $3.08Dividend per share $2.39
2017Earnings per share $1.16Free cash flow per share $3.14Dividend per share $2.52
2018Earnings per share $1.25Free cash flow per share $3.16Dividend per share $2.63
2019Earnings per share $1.38Free cash flow per share $3.31Dividend per share $2.70
2020Earnings per share $1.14Free cash flow per share $3.20Dividend per share $2.79
2021Earnings per share $0.87Free cash flow per share $3.14Dividend per share $2.82
2022Earnings per share $1.42Free cash flow per share $4.03Dividend per share $2.96
2023Earnings per share $1.26Free cash flow per share $4.17Dividend per share $3.05
2024Earnings per share $1.00Free cash flow per share $4.00Dividend per share $3.12
2025Earnings per share $1.17Free cash flow per share $4.25Dividend per share $3.22
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
200.0M400.0M600.0M800.0M1.0B
2016Diluted shares 255.6M
2017Diluted shares 273.9M
2018Diluted shares 289.9M
2019Diluted shares 316.2M
2020Diluted shares 345.4M
2021Diluted shares 414.8M
2022Diluted shares 612.2M
2023Diluted shares 693.0M
2024Diluted shares 863.8M
2025Diluted shares 908.3M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
01.0B2.0B3.0B4.0B
2016Net debt 4.0B
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
—
Interest coverage
— operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
— current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
—
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
5of 6 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
–Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fell — not reportedno data
–More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✕No new sharesShare count did not growfailed
–Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
The accounts lack a line it needs (retained earnings, current assets or liabilities).
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
The accounts lack too many of the lines it needs.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Capital spending (132M) is well below depreciation (2,524M).
Benign
Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.
Worrying
Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.
The effective tax rate is 7.4%.
Benign
A favourable geographic mix, or legitimate tax credits.
Worrying
Not sustainable; projecting it forward inflates the valuation.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$133.38discounted at 10.2% a year · 56% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
114.4×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
32.9×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
21.1×
Free cash flow yield
3.2%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today53.4B
Everything after, today67.7B
The whole business121.2B
Minus net debt-0
What belongs to shareholders121.2B
Divided among 908.3M shares: <strong>$133.38</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
05.0B10.0B15.0B
2016Reported 774.4M
2017Reported 846.7M
2018Reported 888.1M
2019Reported 1.0B
2020Reported 1.1B
2021Reported 1.3B
2022Reported 2.4B
2023Reported 2.9B
2024Reported 3.4B
2025Reported 3.8B
2026Projected 4.7B
2027Projected 5.8B
2028Projected 6.9B
2029Projected 8.1B
2030Projected 9.3B
2031Projected 10.5B
2032Projected 11.6B
2033Projected 12.4B
2034Projected 13.1B
2035Projected 13.4B
2016201820202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
7.2B
8.8B
10.6B
12.4B
14.3B
16.1B
17.7B
19.0B
19.9B
20.4B
Growth
25.0%
22.5%
20.0%
17.5%
15.0%
12.5%
10.0%
7.5%
5.0%
2.5%
Cash margin
65.4%
65.4%
65.4%
65.4%
65.4%
65.4%
65.4%
65.4%
65.4%
65.4%
Free cash flow
4.7B
5.8B
6.9B
8.1B
9.3B
10.5B
11.6B
12.4B
13.1B
13.4B
Worth today
4.3B
4.7B
5.2B
5.5B
5.8B
5.9B
5.9B
5.7B
5.5B
5.1B
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
9.2%
138
146
156
167
180
9.7%
129
136
144
153
164
10.2%
120
126
133
141
150
10.7%
113
118
124
131
139
11.2%
106
111
116
122
129
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
21.0%
23.0%
25.0%
27.0%
29.0%
52.4%
96
104
112
120
130
58.9%
106
114
123
132
142
65.4%
115
124
133
144
155
72.0%
124
134
144
155
167
78.5%
133
144
155
167
180
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 9.8%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$100.79
Median$133.40
90th percentile$179.49
$100.00$150.00$200.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$114.77</b> and <b>$154.96</b>; one in ten below $100.79, one in ten above $179.49.
Does the long run make sense?
13.6×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 13.6 times that year's EBITDA.
Free growthIn year 10 free cash flow is at or above after-tax operating profit, yet the model grows 2.5% forever. Growth needs reinvestment; this assumes it comes for free, which flatters the terminal value.
56%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
What lenders charge, after the tax saving on interest: 6.68% × (1 − 7.4%) = <strong>6.19%</strong>.
Weighted by how much of each the company uses (book value (no price given)): <strong>10.18%</strong>, the rate every future cash flow is discounted at.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.