SphinxRisk

Realty Income Corp

O · Real estate (real estate investment trusts) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31

Realty Income Corp reported revenue of $5.7 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 20.1% a year over the previous 9 years. Of the $19.2 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 75.9% went to dividends; the share count rose 255.3%. On the accounting screens, it passes 5 of 6 Piotroski tests; 2 of the six cross-checks between its statements fire.

Revenue, fiscal 2025 5.7B +20.1% a year over 9 years
Operating margin 20.1% gross margin —
Return on invested capital —  
Free cash flow after stock pay 3.8B 66.7% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA — net debt —
Piotroski F-score 5/6 tests of improvement passed

Is it growing?

Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.

RevenueOperating income
Compound growth a year
3 yrs5 yrs9 yrs
Revenue+19.8%+28.4%+20.1%
Operating income-5.8%+9.9%—
Net income+6.8%+21.8%+14.4%
Earnings per share-6.4%+0.4%-0.6%
Free cash flow per share+1.8%+5.8%+3.7%
Dividend per share+2.8%+2.9%+3.4%
Shares+14.1%+21.3%+15.1%

Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.

Does it earn more than its capital costs?

Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.

GrossOperatingNetFree cash flow

Return on invested capital

Return on invested capital Cost of capital today · 10.2%

Economic profit

Needs a cost of capital, which comes from the valuation below.

Return on equity
2.7%
Return on assets
1.5%
Asset turnover
0.08×
Overheads (SG&A)
3.5% of revenue

Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?

Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.

Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay

Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025

19.2B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.

  • Reinvested in the business 3% 522.8M
  • Acquisitions 2% 366.0M
  • Dividends 76% 14.6B
  • Share buybacks 0% 0
  • Kept, or used to pay down debt 19% 3.7B

Over the same years it paid 261.3M in stock. The share count rose 255.3%.

Per share

Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share

Shares outstanding

Diluted shares

How strong is the balance sheet?

Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.

Net debt
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
—
Interest coverage
— operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
— current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
—

Three classic screens of the accounts

Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.

Piotroski F-score

Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.

5of 6 tests passed
  • ProfitableReturn on assets above zero passed
  • Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zero passed
  • Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year before passed
  • Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals) passed
  • Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fell — not reported no data
  • More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year before — not reported no data
  • No new sharesShare count did not grow failed
  • Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reported no data
  • Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year before passed

Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.

Altman Z''-score

Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?

The accounts lack a line it needs (retained earnings, current assets or liabilities).

Beneish M-score

Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?

The accounts lack too many of the lines it needs.

Where the statements disagree

Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.

Capital spending (132M) is well below depreciation (2,524M).

Benign

Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.

Worrying

Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.

The effective tax rate is 7.4%.

Benign

A favourable geographic mix, or legitimate tax credits.

Worrying

Not sustainable; projecting it forward inflates the valuation.

What is it worth, under which assumptions?

A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.

Revenue
M $

revenue of fiscal 2025

%

revenue grew +28.4% a year over the last 5 years; it fades to the terminal rate by the last year

yrs

ten years for growth to fade to the terminal rate

Cash from each sale
%

free cash flow to the firm after stock-based pay ÷ revenue, last 3 fiscal years together

%

the margin in year ten; by default the business keeps today's

The long run
%

growth forever after year ten, below the risk-free rate: no company outgrows the economy forever

The discount rate
%

10-year US Treasury yield (FRED, DGS10), 2026-09-24

not measured on this public page, which uses only public filings: 1.0 assumes it moves like the market. Sign in to measure it from prices

%

the extra return demanded for holding shares; it cannot be measured, and 4–6% is the common range

%

no interest line: the risk-free rate + 1.5 points

%

effective rate in the last fiscal year, 7.4%, kept within 0–35%

The price
$

Type the price you see at your broker. It is used only for the reverse questions: what that price implies.

Back to the defaults

SEC from the filings Treasury the 10-year yield measured from prices assumption cannot be measured yours you changed it

Value per share, with these assumptions $133.38 discounted at 10.2% a year · 56% of it from after year 10
$100.7980% of 5,000 simulations$179.49
Cautious $84.62 21.0% growth · 55.6% margin · 11.2% discount · 2.0% forever
Your assumptions $133.38 25.0% growth · 65.4% margin · 10.2% discount · 2.5% forever
Generous $218.98 29.0% growth · 75.3% margin · 9.2% discount · 3.0% forever

Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.

What the value implies, in the usual multiples

At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings114.4×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA32.9×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue21.1×
Free cash flow yield3.2%

From cash flows to a value per share

10 years of cash flow, today53.4B
Everything after, today67.7B
The whole business121.2B
Minus net debt-0
What belongs to shareholders121.2B

Divided among 908.3M shares: <strong>$133.38</strong> each.

The projection next to its history

Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.

ReportedProjected
Year by year
2026202720282029203020312032203320342035
Revenue7.2B8.8B10.6B12.4B14.3B16.1B17.7B19.0B19.9B20.4B
Growth25.0%22.5%20.0%17.5%15.0%12.5%10.0%7.5%5.0%2.5%
Cash margin65.4%65.4%65.4%65.4%65.4%65.4%65.4%65.4%65.4%65.4%
Free cash flow4.7B5.8B6.9B8.1B9.3B10.5B11.6B12.4B13.1B13.4B
Worth today4.3B4.7B5.2B5.5B5.8B5.9B5.9B5.7B5.5B5.1B

If the least-known inputs move

Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.

The discount rate and growth forever

discount ↓ · forever →1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
9.2% 138 146 156 167 180
9.7% 129 136 144 153 164
10.2% 120 126 133 141 150
10.7% 113 118 124 131 139
11.2% 106 111 116 122 129

Year-one growth and the final margin

margin ↓ · growth →21.0%23.0%25.0%27.0%29.0%
52.4% 96 104 112 120 130
58.9% 106 114 123 132 142
65.4% 115 124 133 144 155
72.0% 124 134 144 155 167
78.5% 133 144 155 167 180

All the inputs moving at once

5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 9.8%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.

Half of the simulations land between <b>$114.77</b> and <b>$154.96</b>; one in ten below $100.79, one in ten above $179.49.

Does the long run make sense?

  • 13.6×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 13.6 times that year's EBITDA.
  • Free growthIn year 10 free cash flow is at or above after-tax operating profit, yet the model grows 2.5% forever. Growth needs reinvestment; this assumes it comes for free, which flatters the terminal value.
  • 56%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
The discount rate, taken apart
  1. What shareholders demand (CAPM): 5.18% risk-free + 1.00 beta × 5.0% premium = <strong>10.18%</strong>.
  2. What lenders charge, after the tax saving on interest: 6.68% × (1 − 7.4%) = <strong>6.19%</strong>.
  3. Weighted by how much of each the company uses (book value (no price given)): <strong>10.18%</strong>, the rate every future cash flow is discounted at.

What it has filed lately

The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.

Companies like this one

Same SEC industry (real estate investment trusts) first, then the rest of real estate.

Every figure, year by year

10 fiscal years · 30 measures
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Size
Revenue1.1B1.2B1.3B1.5B1.6B2.1B3.3B4.1B5.3B5.7B
Revenue growth—+10.2%+9.2%+12.1%+10.7%+26.3%+60.7%+22.0%+29.2%+9.1%
Operating income———734.6M720.5M716.0M1.4B1.7B933.9M1.2B
Net income315.6M318.8M363.6M436.5M395.5M359.5M869.4M872.3M860.8M1.1B
Margins
Gross margin——————————
Operating margin———49.4%43.7%34.4%41.4%40.7%17.7%20.1%
Net margin28.6%26.2%27.4%29.3%24.0%17.3%26.0%21.4%16.3%18.4%
Free cash flow margin71.3%70.8%68.9%70.2%67.2%62.6%73.8%70.9%65.5%67.2%
R&D ÷ revenue——————————
SG&A ÷ revenue4.7%4.8%6.3%4.5%4.4%4.7%4.1%3.5%3.4%3.5%
Cash
Free cash flow786.4M860.6M915.4M1.0B1.1B1.3B2.5B2.9B3.5B3.9B
Stock-based pay12.0M13.9M27.3M13.7M16.5M41.8M21.6M26.2M57.5M30.8M
Free cash flow after stock pay774.4M846.7M888.1M1.0B1.1B1.3B2.4B2.9B3.4B3.8B
Free cash flow to the firm———1.3B1.4B1.5B2.9B3.4B3.1B3.5B
Free cash flow ÷ net income2.5×2.7×2.5×2.4×2.8×3.6×2.8×3.3×4.0×3.6×
Capex ÷ revenue1.2%1.3%1.9%1.6%0.5%0.9%2.9%1.7%2.3%2.3%
Returns
Return on invested capital——————————
Return on equity4.7%4.3%4.5%4.5%3.6%1.4%3.0%2.6%2.2%2.7%
Return on assets2.4%2.3%2.4%2.4%1.9%0.8%1.8%1.5%1.3%1.5%
Asset turnover0.1×0.1×0.1×0.1×0.1×0.0×0.1×0.1×0.1×0.1×
Economic profit——————————
Per share
Earnings per share$1.23$1.16$1.25$1.38$1.14$0.87$1.42$1.26$1.00$1.17
Free cash flow per share$3.08$3.14$3.16$3.31$3.20$3.14$4.03$4.17$4.00$4.25
Dividend per share$2.39$2.52$2.63$2.70$2.79$2.82$2.96$3.05$3.12$3.22
Payout ratio193.5%216.2%209.4%195.2%243.8%325.2%208.6%242.1%312.7%275.9%
Book value per share$26.01$25.94$26.63$29.30$30.41$42.37$43.49$43.78$43.57$42.23
Diluted shares255.6M273.9M289.9M316.2M345.4M414.8M612.2M693.0M863.8M908.3M
Balance sheet
Net debt4.0B—————————
Net debt ÷ EBITDA——————————
Interest coverage———2.5×2.3×2.2×3.0×2.3×——
Current ratio——————————
Cash conversion cycle (days)——————————
Scores
Piotroski F-score—453335445
Altman Z''——————————
Beneish M——————————

Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.