IBCP · Financials(state commercial banks) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Independent Bank Corp reported revenue of $32.1 million in fiscal 2025. Of the $620.6 million its operations generated over 10 years, 26.1% went to dividends and 17.6% to buybacks; the share count fell 3.3%. On the accounting screens, it passes 4 of 6 Piotroski tests; 1 of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 202532.1M
Operating margin814.7%gross margin —
Return on invested capital—
Free cash flow after stock pay67.5M210.3% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA—net debt —
Piotroski F-score4/6tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
0100.0M200.0M300.0M
2016Operating income 39.8M
2017Operating income 47.6M
2018Revenue 27.1MOperating income 66.6M
2019Revenue 26.0MOperating income 84.1M
2020Revenue 24.0MOperating income 85.7M
2021Revenue 29.1MOperating income 85.6M
2022Revenue 31.6MOperating income 97.2M
2023Revenue 32.9MOperating income 157.0M
2024Revenue 32.0MOperating income 249.3M
2025Revenue 32.1MOperating income 261.3M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+0.5%
+5.9%
—
Operating income
+39.0%
+25.0%
+23.3%
Net income
+2.7%
+4.1%
+13.0%
Earnings per share
+3.5%
+5.4%
+13.5%
Free cash flow per share
-6.8%
+6.6%
+15.2%
Dividend per share
+6.0%
+5.5%
+13.3%
Shares
-0.8%
-1.2%
-0.4%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 10.2%
0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Needs a cost of capital, which comes from the valuation below.
Return on equity
13.6%
Return on assets
1.2%
Asset turnover
0.01×
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
050.0M100.0M150.0M
2016Net income 22.8MFree cash flow 20.2MAfter stock-based pay 18.6M
2017Net income 20.5MFree cash flow 34.4MAfter stock-based pay 32.6M
2018Net income 39.8MFree cash flow 41.1MAfter stock-based pay 39.3M
2019Net income 46.4MFree cash flow 29.6MAfter stock-based pay 27.7M
2020Net income 56.2MFree cash flow 54.3MAfter stock-based pay 52.3M
2021Net income 62.9MFree cash flow 104.3MAfter stock-based pay 102.4M
2022Net income 63.4MFree cash flow 89.0MAfter stock-based pay 86.8M
2023Net income 59.1MFree cash flow 69.6MAfter stock-based pay 67.3M
2024Net income 66.8MFree cash flow 55.2MAfter stock-based pay 52.9M
2025Net income 68.5MFree cash flow 70.2MAfter stock-based pay 67.5M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025
620.6M generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 9%52.9M
Acquisitions 0%0
Dividends 26%162.2M
Share buybacks 18%108.9M
Kept, or used to pay down debt 48%296.7M
Over the same years it paid 20.3M in stock. The share count fell 3.3%. 88.6M of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$0.00$2.00$4.00$6.00
2016Earnings per share $1.07Free cash flow per share $0.95Dividend per share $0.34
2017Earnings per share $0.96Free cash flow per share $1.61Dividend per share $0.42
2018Earnings per share $1.69Free cash flow per share $1.74Dividend per share $0.60
2019Earnings per share $2.07Free cash flow per share $1.31Dividend per share $0.74
2020Earnings per share $2.57Free cash flow per share $2.48Dividend per share $0.81
2021Earnings per share $2.97Free cash flow per share $4.93Dividend per share $0.86
2022Earnings per share $3.01Free cash flow per share $4.22Dividend per share $0.88
2023Earnings per share $2.83Free cash flow per share $3.34Dividend per share $0.93
2024Earnings per share $3.20Free cash flow per share $2.64Dividend per share $0.96
2025Earnings per share $3.34Free cash flow per share $3.41Dividend per share $1.05
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
20.0M21.0M22.0M23.0M24.0M
2016Diluted shares 21.3M
2017Diluted shares 21.3M
2018Diluted shares 23.6M
2019Diluted shares 22.5M
2020Diluted shares 21.9M
2021Diluted shares 21.2M
2022Diluted shares 21.1M
2023Diluted shares 20.8M
2024Diluted shares 20.9M
2025Diluted shares 20.5M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
—
Interest coverage
1× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
— current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
—
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
4of 6 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
–Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fell — not reportedno data
–More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
–Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
The accounts lack a line it needs (retained earnings, current assets or liabilities).
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
The accounts lack too many of the lines it needs.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Capital spending (6M) is well below depreciation (10M).
Benign
Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.
Worrying
Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$136.07discounted at 10.2% a year · 50% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
40.8×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
10.3×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
87.2×
Free cash flow yield
2.4%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today1.4B
Everything after, today1.4B
The whole business2.8B
Minus net debt-0
What belongs to shareholders2.8B
Divided among 20.5M shares: <strong>$136.07</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
0100.0M200.0M300.0M
2016Reported 18.6M
2017Reported 32.6M
2018Reported 39.3M
2019Reported 27.7M
2020Reported 52.3M
2021Reported 102.4M
2022Reported 86.8M
2023Reported 67.3M
2024Reported 52.9M
2025Reported 67.5M
2026Projected 192.5M
2027Projected 203.3M
2028Projected 213.9M
2029Projected 224.2M
2030Projected 234.2M
2031Projected 243.7M
2032Projected 252.6M
2033Projected 260.9M
2034Projected 268.4M
2035Projected 275.2M
2016201820202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
34.0M
35.9M
37.8M
39.6M
41.4M
43.0M
44.6M
46.1M
47.4M
48.6M
Growth
6.0%
5.6%
5.2%
4.8%
4.4%
4.1%
3.7%
3.3%
2.9%
2.5%
Cash margin
566.1%
566.1%
566.1%
566.1%
566.1%
566.1%
566.1%
566.1%
566.1%
566.1%
Free cash flow
192.5M
203.3M
213.9M
224.2M
234.2M
243.7M
252.6M
260.9M
268.4M
275.2M
Worth today
174.7M
167.5M
160.0M
152.2M
144.3M
136.3M
128.2M
120.2M
112.3M
104.5M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
9.2%
140
148
157
167
179
9.7%
132
138
146
154
164
10.2%
124
130
136
143
152
10.7%
117
122
128
134
141
11.2%
111
115
120
126
132
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
452.9%
99
107
116
125
135
509.5%
107
116
126
136
147
566.1%
116
126
136
147
160
622.7%
124
135
146
159
172
679.3%
133
144
157
170
184
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 84.9%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$41.76
Median$48.47
90th percentile$56.99
$40.00$50.00$60.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$44.83</b> and <b>$52.69</b>; one in ten below $41.76, one in ten above $56.99.
Does the long run make sense?
8.9×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 8.9 times that year's EBITDA.
14%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 18% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 14% on the new capital.
50%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
What lenders charge, after the tax saving on interest: 6.67% × (1 − 15.7%) = <strong>5.62%</strong>.
Weighted by how much of each the company uses (book value (no price given)): <strong>10.17%</strong>, the rate every future cash flow is discounted at.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 6 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market$104,11211 sale(s) by 3 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans0%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Companies like this one
Same SEC industry (state commercial banks) first, then the rest of financials.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.