FET · Industrials(oil & gas field machinery & equipment) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Forum Energy Technologies, Inc. reported revenue of $791.5 million in fiscal 2025, after shrinking 0.4% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from -17.3% in 2017 to 3.8%, and it earned -4.1% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $208.3 million its operations generated over 10 years, 181.0% went to acquisitions and 48.0% back into the business; the share count rose 140.8%. On the accounting screens, it passes 6 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of -0.61 is in the distress zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 1 of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 2025791.5M-0.4% a year over 9 years
Operating margin3.8%gross margin 27.7%
Return on invested capital-4.1%-3.9% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay55.3M7.0% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA1.6×net debt 101.3M
Piotroski F-score6/9tests of improvement passed
Share counts are in today's shares. The SEC's filings restate only recent years after a split, so these jumps were read as splits and the older years scaled to match — otherwise per-share figures would compare different units:
1-for-20 before fiscal 2019.
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
-1.0B-500.0M0500.0M1.0B1.5B
2017Revenue 818.6MOperating income -141.6M
2018
2018Revenue 1.1BOperating income -397.0M
2019Revenue 956.5MOperating income -536.1M
2020Revenue 512.5MOperating income -231.6M
2021Revenue 541.1MOperating income -44.5M
2022Revenue 699.9MOperating income 17.3M
2023Revenue 738.9MOperating income 20.7M
2024Revenue 816.4MOperating income -86.8M
2025Revenue 791.5MOperating income 30.1M
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+4.2%
+9.1%
-0.4%
Operating income
+20.3%
—
—
Free cash flow per share
—
+79.2%
—
Shares
+25.9%
+16.3%
+10.3%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 8.3%
-80.0%-60.0%-40.0%-20.0%-0.0%20.0%
2017
2018
2018
2019Return on invested capital -60.8%
2020Return on invested capital -36.9%
2021Return on invested capital -8.0%
2022Return on invested capital 1.1%
2023Return on invested capital 9.2%
2024Return on invested capital -18.0%
2025Return on invested capital -4.1%
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-800.0M-600.0M-400.0M-200.0M0200.0M
2017
2018
2018
2019Economic profit -611.4M
2020Economic profit -317.1M
2021Economic profit -91.6M
2022Economic profit -39.3M
2023Economic profit 4.9M
2024Economic profit -133.7M
2025Economic profit -53.1M
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
-3.3%
Return on assets
-1.3%
Asset turnover
1.05×
Overheads (SG&A)
25.3% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-600.0M-400.0M-200.0M0200.0M
2017Net income -59.4MFree cash flow -66.7MAfter stock-based pay -87.1M
2018
2018Net income -374.1MFree cash flow -21.6MAfter stock-based pay -41.6M
2019Net income -567.1MFree cash flow 89.0MAfter stock-based pay 73.2M
2020Net income -96.9MFree cash flow 1.6MAfter stock-based pay -8.1M
2021Net income -82.7MFree cash flow -18.2MAfter stock-based pay -25.8M
2022Net income 3.7MFree cash flow -24.5MAfter stock-based pay -28.8M
2023Net income -18.9MFree cash flow 239,000After stock-based pay -4.3M
2024Net income -135.3MFree cash flow 84.0MAfter stock-based pay 76.9M
2025Net income -9.7MFree cash flow 64.4MAfter stock-based pay 55.3M
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2017–2025
208.3M generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 48%100.1M
Acquisitions 181%377.1M
Dividends 0%0
Share buybacks 26%54.7M
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -155%-323.5M
Over the same years it paid 98.4M in stock. The share count rose 140.8%. The buybacks did not even cover what was handed out in stock.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$-150.00$-100.00$-50.00$0.00$50.00
2017Earnings per share $-12.04Free cash flow per share $-13.53
2018
2018Earnings per share $-68.78Free cash flow per share $-3.98
2019Earnings per share $-103.01Free cash flow per share $16.17
2020Earnings per share $-17.37Free cash flow per share $0.29
2021Earnings per share $-14.65Free cash flow per share $-3.22
2022Earnings per share $0.62Free cash flow per share $-4.12
2023Earnings per share $-1.85Free cash flow per share $0.02
2024Earnings per share $-11.00Free cash flow per share $6.83
2025Earnings per share $-0.81Free cash flow per share $5.42
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
4.0M6.0M8.0M10.0M12.0M14.0M
2017Diluted shares 4.9M
2018
2018Diluted shares 5.4M
2019Diluted shares 5.5M
2020Diluted shares 5.6M
2021Diluted shares 5.6M
2022Diluted shares 6.0M
2023Diluted shares 10.2M
2024Diluted shares 12.3M
2025Diluted shares 11.9M
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
0100.0M200.0M300.0M400.0M
2017
2018
2018
2019Net debt 341.0M
2020Net debt 166.1M
2021Net debt 186.4M
2022Net debt 188.9M
2023Net debt 84.6M
2024Net debt 143.7M
2025Net debt 101.3M
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
1.6×
Interest coverage
— operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
2.17 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
158 days collects in 66d, stock 153d, pays in 60d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
6of 9 tests passed
✕ProfitableReturn on assets above zerofailed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
✕Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforefailed
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
-0.61distress zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.32 × 6.56+2.11
Retained earnings ÷ assets -1.12 × 3.26-3.66
Operating income ÷ assets 0.04 × 6.72+0.27
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.63 × 1.05+0.66
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.95below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 0.95+0.88
Gross margin slipping 1.13+0.60
Soft assets 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.40
Sales growth 0.97+0.86
Slower depreciation 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.12
Overheads vs sales 0.94-0.16
Profit not in cash -0.11-0.50
Leverage rising 0.95-0.31
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Capital spending (6M) is well below depreciation (34M).
Benign
Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.
Worrying
Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$17.08discounted at 8.3% a year · 60% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
—
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
4.8×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
0.4×
Free cash flow yield
27.3%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today122.2M
Everything after, today182.0M
The whole business304.2M
Minus net debt-101.3M
What belongs to shareholders202.9M
Divided among 11.9M shares: <strong>$17.08</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-100.0M-50.0M050.0M100.0M
2017Reported -87.1M
2018
2018Reported -41.6M
2019Reported 73.2M
2020Reported -8.1M
2021Reported -25.8M
2022Reported -28.8M
2023Reported -4.3M
2024Reported 76.9M
2025Reported 55.3M
2026Projected 14.3M
2027Projected 15.5M
2028Projected 16.7M
2029Projected 17.8M
2030Projected 18.9M
2031Projected 19.9M
2032Projected 20.9M
2033Projected 21.7M
2034Projected 22.4M
2035Projected 22.9M
2017201820202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
862.7M
934.1M
1.0B
1.1B
1.1B
1.2B
1.3B
1.3B
1.3B
1.4B
Growth
9.0%
8.3%
7.6%
6.8%
6.1%
5.4%
4.7%
3.9%
3.2%
2.5%
Cash margin
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
Free cash flow
14.3M
15.5M
16.7M
17.8M
18.9M
19.9M
20.9M
21.7M
22.4M
22.9M
Worth today
13.2M
13.2M
13.1M
12.9M
12.7M
12.3M
11.9M
11.4M
10.9M
10.3M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
7.3%
18
20
23
26
30
7.8%
16
18
20
22
25
8.3%
14
15
17
19
22
8.8%
12
14
15
17
19
9.3%
11
12
13
15
16
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
5.0%
7.0%
9.0%
11.0%
13.0%
1.3%
10
11
13
15
17
1.5%
11
13
15
17
19
1.7%
13
15
17
19
22
1.8%
15
17
19
22
24
2.0%
17
19
21
24
27
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$-14.75
Median$17.04
90th percentile$54.01
$0.00$50.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$0.62</b> and <b>$35.28</b>; one in ten below $-14.75, one in ten above $54.01.
Does the long run make sense?
3.6×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 3.6 times that year's EBITDA.
8%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 33% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 8% on the new capital — it has earned -4% on average over the last five years.
60%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 3 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market$2.7M11 sale(s) by 3 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans45%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.