DRI · Consumer discretionary(retail-eating places) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2026-05-31
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Darden Restaurants Inc reported revenue of $13.2 billion in fiscal 2026, after growing 7.0% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from 9.4% in 2017 to 12.0%, and it earned 30.5% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $13.1 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 36.4% went back into the business and 35.2% to dividends; the share count fell 7.7%. On the accounting screens, it passes 7 of 8 Piotroski tests and its Altman Z'' of -0.03 is in the distress zone; 1 of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 202613.2B+7.0% a year over 9 years
Operating margin12.0%gross margin —
Return on invested capital30.5%31.1% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay1.0B7.9% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA1.0×net debt 2.1B
Piotroski F-score7/8tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
05.0B10.0B15.0B
2017Revenue 7.2BOperating income 677.5M
2018Revenue 8.1BOperating income 766.8M
2019Revenue 8.5BOperating income 832.5M
2020Revenue 7.8BOperating income 47.9M
2021Revenue 7.2BOperating income 648.7M
2022Revenue 9.6BOperating income 1.2B
2023Revenue 10.5BOperating income 1.2B
2024Revenue 11.4BOperating income 1.3B
2025Revenue 12.1BOperating income 1.4B
2026Revenue 13.2BOperating income 1.6B
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+8.0%
+12.9%
+7.0%
Operating income
+9.6%
+19.5%
+9.9%
Net income
+7.1%
+13.9%
+10.8%
Earnings per share
+9.1%
+16.8%
+11.8%
Free cash flow per share
+6.2%
+6.2%
+7.7%
Dividend per share
+7.5%
+31.1%
+11.6%
Shares
-1.8%
-2.5%
-0.9%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
GrossOperatingNetFree cash flow
-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%
2017Operating 9.4%Net 6.7%Free cash flow 8.7%
2018Operating 9.5%Net 7.4%Free cash flow 7.7%
2019Operating 9.8%Net 8.4%Free cash flow 9.6%
2020Operating 0.6%Net -0.7%Free cash flow 3.3%
2021Operating 9.0%Net 8.7%Free cash flow 13.0%
2022Operating 12.1%Net 9.9%Free cash flow 9.2%
2023Operating 11.5%Net 9.4%Free cash flow 9.4%
2024Operating 11.5%Net 9.0%Free cash flow 9.0%
2025Operating 11.3%Net 8.7%Free cash flow 8.8%
2026Operating 12.0%Net 9.1%Free cash flow 8.5%
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Return on invested capital
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 7.4%
0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%
2017Return on invested capital 16.9%
2018Return on invested capital 24.5%
2019Return on invested capital 23.0%
2020Return on invested capital 2.3%
2021Return on invested capital 15.7%
2022Return on invested capital 32.7%
2023Return on invested capital 34.2%
2024Return on invested capital 31.1%
2025Return on invested capital 27.2%
2026Return on invested capital 30.5%
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Economic profit
Economic profit
-500.0M0500.0M1.0B1.5B
2017Economic profit 288.6M
2018Economic profit 534.0M
2019Economic profit 519.6M
2020Economic profit -179.4M
2021Economic profit 309.5M
2022Economic profit 785.9M
2023Economic profit 827.0M
2024Economic profit 879.0M
2025Economic profit 878.2M
2026Economic profit 1.0B
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
54.7%
Return on assets
9.4%
Asset turnover
1.03×
Overheads (SG&A)
3.9% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-500.0M0500.0M1.0B1.5B
2017Net income 479.1MFree cash flow 623.3MAfter stock-based pay 582.6M
2018Net income 596.0MFree cash flow 623.8MAfter stock-based pay 581.0M
2019Net income 713.4MFree cash flow 815.6MAfter stock-based pay 755.8M
2020Net income -52.4MFree cash flow 257.5MAfter stock-based pay 204.5M
2021Net income 629.3MFree cash flow 938.6MAfter stock-based pay 866.2M
2022Net income 952.8MFree cash flow 887.7MAfter stock-based pay 827.2M
2023Net income 981.9MFree cash flow 987.9MAfter stock-based pay 920.4M
2024Net income 1.0BFree cash flow 1.0BAfter stock-based pay 952.0M
2025Net income 1.0BFree cash flow 1.1BAfter stock-based pay 983.3M
2026Net income 1.2BFree cash flow 1.1BAfter stock-based pay 1.0B
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2017–2026
13.1B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 36%4.8B
Acquisitions 17%2.2B
Dividends 35%4.6B
Share buybacks 31%4.1B
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -20%-2.6B
Over the same years it paid 623.4M in stock. The share count fell 7.7%. 3.5B of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$-5.00$0.00$5.00$10.00$15.00
2017Earnings per share $3.80Free cash flow per share $4.95Dividend per share $2.22
2018Earnings per share $4.73Free cash flow per share $4.95Dividend per share $2.49
2019Earnings per share $5.69Free cash flow per share $6.50Dividend per share $2.96
2020Earnings per share $-0.43Free cash flow per share $2.10Dividend per share $2.63
2021Earnings per share $4.77Free cash flow per share $7.12Dividend per share $1.54
2022Earnings per share $7.39Free cash flow per share $6.88Dividend per share $4.36
2023Earnings per share $7.99Free cash flow per share $8.04Dividend per share $4.80
2024Earnings per share $8.51Free cash flow per share $8.45Dividend per share $5.20
2025Earnings per share $8.86Free cash flow per share $8.97Dividend per share $5.56
2026Earnings per share $10.38Free cash flow per share $9.62Dividend per share $5.96
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
115.0M120.0M125.0M130.0M135.0M
2017Diluted shares 126.0M
2018Diluted shares 126.0M
2019Diluted shares 125.4M
2020Diluted shares 122.7M
2021Diluted shares 131.8M
2022Diluted shares 129.0M
2023Diluted shares 122.9M
2024Diluted shares 120.8M
2025Diluted shares 118.4M
2026Diluted shares 116.3M
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
-1.0B01.0B2.0B3.0B
2017Net debt 703.5M
2018Net debt 779.6M
2019Net debt 470.4M
2020Net debt 435.5M
2021Net debt -284.9M
2022Net debt 480.4M
2023Net debt 517.1M
2024Net debt 1.3B
2025Net debt 1.9B
2026Net debt 2.1B
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
1.0×
Interest coverage
13× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
0.31 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
— collects in 4d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
7of 8 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
–Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
-0.03distress zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets -0.16 × 6.56-1.05
Retained earnings ÷ assets -0.01 × 3.26-0.03
Operating income ÷ assets 0.12 × 6.72+0.83
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.21 × 1.05+0.22
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
The accounts lack too many of the lines it needs.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Receivables are growing 38% against revenue growing 9%.
Benign
A shift towards larger customers on longer terms, or sales concentrated at the end of the period.
Worrying
Sales are being made on looser credit, or revenue has been booked that may never be collected.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$284.58discounted at 7.4% a year · 66% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
27.4×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
16.4×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
2.7×
Free cash flow yield
3.1%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today12.0B
Everything after, today23.2B
The whole business35.2B
Minus net debt-2.1B
What belongs to shareholders33.1B
Divided among 116.3M shares: <strong>$284.58</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
01.0B2.0B3.0B
2017Reported 582.6M
2018Reported 581.0M
2019Reported 755.8M
2020Reported 204.5M
2021Reported 866.2M
2022Reported 827.2M
2023Reported 920.4M
2024Reported 952.0M
2025Reported 983.3M
2026Reported 1.0B
2027Projected 1.2B
2028Projected 1.4B
2029Projected 1.5B
2030Projected 1.6B
2031Projected 1.8B
2032Projected 1.9B
2033Projected 2.0B
2034Projected 2.1B
2035Projected 2.2B
2036Projected 2.3B
2017201920212023202520272029203120332035
Year by year
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
Revenue
14.9B
16.7B
18.5B
20.2B
21.9B
23.5B
24.9B
26.1B
27.1B
27.7B
Growth
13.0%
11.8%
10.7%
9.5%
8.3%
7.2%
6.0%
4.8%
3.7%
2.5%
Cash margin
8.1%
8.1%
8.1%
8.1%
8.1%
8.1%
8.1%
8.1%
8.1%
8.1%
Free cash flow
1.2B
1.4B
1.5B
1.6B
1.8B
1.9B
2.0B
2.1B
2.2B
2.3B
Worth today
1.1B
1.2B
1.2B
1.2B
1.2B
1.2B
1.2B
1.2B
1.2B
1.1B
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
6.4%
296
327
366
417
486
6.9%
265
290
321
360
410
7.4%
240
260
285
315
353
7.9%
218
235
255
279
309
8.4%
200
214
231
251
274
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
9.0%
11.0%
13.0%
15.0%
17.0%
6.5%
195
213
233
255
277
7.3%
217
237
259
283
308
8.1%
238
260
285
311
338
8.9%
259
284
310
338
369
9.8%
281
307
336
367
400
All the inputs moving at once
4,998 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$179.94
Median$284.19
90th percentile$458.82
$200.00$400.00$600.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$224.73</b> and <b>$363.19</b>; one in ten below $179.94, one in ten above $458.82.
Does the long run make sense?
10.5×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 10.5 times that year's EBITDA.
11%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 22% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 11% on the new capital — it has earned 31% on average over the last five years.
66%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.