CPAY · Industrials(services-business services, nec) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Corpay, Inc. reported revenue of $4.5 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 6.1% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin narrowed from 46.5% in 2019 to 44.0%, and it earned 8.0% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $10.1 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 69.7% went to buybacks and 44.7% to acquisitions; the share count fell 21.1%. On the accounting screens, it passes 5 of 8 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 1.87 is in the grey zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 2 of the six cross-checks between its statements fire.
Revenue, fiscal 20254.5B+6.1% a year over 9 years
Operating margin44.0%gross margin —
Return on invested capital8.0%9.2% on average over 3 years
Free cash flow after stock pay1.2B26.4% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA4.6×net debt 10.9B
Piotroski F-score5/8tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
02.0B4.0B6.0B
2019Revenue 2.6BOperating income 1.2B
2020Revenue 2.4BOperating income 972.3M
2021Revenue 2.8BOperating income 1.2B
2022Revenue 3.4BOperating income 1.4B
2023
2023
2023
2023Revenue 3.8BOperating income 1.7B
2024Revenue 4.0BOperating income 1.8B
2025Revenue 4.5BOperating income 2.0B
2019202020212022202320232023202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
—
—
+6.1%
Operating income
—
—
+5.5%
Net income
—
—
+2.0%
Earnings per share
—
—
+4.7%
Free cash flow per share
—
—
+4.7%
Shares
—
—
-2.6%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
GrossOperatingNetFree cash flow
0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%
2019Operating 46.5%Net 33.8%Free cash flow 41.0%
2020Operating 40.7%Net 29.5%Free cash flow 58.4%
2021Operating 43.8%Net 29.6%Free cash flow 38.3%
2022Operating 42.2%Net 27.8%Free cash flow 17.6%
2023
2023
2023
2023Operating 44.1%Net 26.1%Free cash flow 51.8%
2024Operating 45.0%Net 25.3%Free cash flow 44.4%
2025Operating 44.0%Net 23.6%Free cash flow 28.7%
2019202020212022202320232023202320242025
Return on invested capital
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 5.1%
0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%
2019Return on invested capital 18.7%
2020Return on invested capital 17.0%
2021Return on invested capital 9.1%
2022Return on invested capital 9.1%
2023
2023
2023
2023Return on invested capital 10.1%
2024Return on invested capital 9.3%
2025Return on invested capital 8.0%
2019202020212022202320232023202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
0200.0M400.0M600.0M800.0M
2019Economic profit 745.5M
2020Economic profit 544.3M
2021Economic profit 414.7M
2022Economic profit 478.5M
2023
2023
2023
2023Economic profit 611.9M
2024Economic profit 590.0M
2025Economic profit 511.7M
2019202020212022202320232023202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
27.5%
Return on assets
4.1%
Asset turnover
0.17×
Overheads (SG&A)
16.2% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
0500.0M1.0B1.5B2.0B
2019Net income 895.1MFree cash flow 1.1BAfter stock-based pay 1.0B
2020Net income 704.2MFree cash flow 1.4BAfter stock-based pay 1.4B
2021Net income 839.5MFree cash flow 1.1BAfter stock-based pay 1.0B
2022Net income 954.3MFree cash flow 603.4MAfter stock-based pay 482.0M
2023
2023
2023
2023Net income 981.9MFree cash flow 1.9BAfter stock-based pay 1.8B
2024Net income 1.0BFree cash flow 1.8BAfter stock-based pay 1.6B
2025Net income 1.1BFree cash flow 1.3BAfter stock-based pay 1.2B
2019202020212022202320232023202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2019–2025
10.1B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 9%946.3M
Acquisitions 45%4.5B
Dividends 0%0
Share buybacks 70%7.1B
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -24%-2.4B
Over the same years it paid 641.3M in stock. The share count fell 21.1%. 6.4B of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$0.00$10.00$20.00$30.00
2019Earnings per share $9.94Free cash flow per share $12.07
2020Earnings per share $8.12Free cash flow per share $16.08
2021Earnings per share $9.99Free cash flow per share $12.91
2022Earnings per share $12.42Free cash flow per share $7.85
2023
2023
2023
2023Earnings per share $13.20Free cash flow per share $26.18
2024Earnings per share $13.97Free cash flow per share $24.57
2025Earnings per share $15.06Free cash flow per share $18.28
2019202020212022202320232023202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
70.0M75.0M80.0M85.0M90.0M95.0M
2019Diluted shares 90.1M
2020Diluted shares 86.7M
2021Diluted shares 84.1M
2022Diluted shares 76.9M
2023
2023
2023
2023Diluted shares 74.4M
2024Diluted shares 71.8M
2025Diluted shares 71.1M
2019202020212022202320232023202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
05.0B10.0B15.0B
2019Net debt 475.3M
2020Net debt 270.8M
2021Net debt 6.0B
2022Net debt 7.9B
2023
2023
2023
2023Net debt 7.5B
2024Net debt 9.2B
2025Net debt 10.9B
2019202020212022202320232023202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
4.6×
Interest coverage
5× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
0.98 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
— collects in 173d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
5of 8 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
–Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
1.87grey zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets -0.01 × 6.56-0.08
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.39 × 3.26+1.27
Operating income ÷ assets 0.08 × 6.72+0.51
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.17 × 1.05+0.18
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.55below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 0.90+0.83
Gross margin slipping 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.53
Soft assets 0.91+0.37
Sales growth 1.14+1.02
Slower depreciation 1.06+0.12
Overheads vs sales 1.04-0.18
Profit not in cash -0.02-0.08
Leverage rising 0.99-0.32
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Capital spending (201M) is well below depreciation (393M).
Benign
Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.
Worrying
Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.
Net debt is 4.6 times EBITDA.
Benign
A stable sector with predictable cash flows and comfortable maturities.
Worrying
Little room if earnings fall; the maturity schedule is what to check.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
80% of the value comes from after year 10: this valuation rests mostly on the long run, which is exactly what is least known.
Value per share, with these assumptions$1,091.43discounted at 5.1% a year · 80% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
72.5×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
37.1×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
19.5×
Free cash flow yield
1.5%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today18.0B
Everything after, today70.5B
The whole business88.5B
Minus net debt-10.9B
What belongs to shareholders77.6B
Divided among 71.1M shares: <strong>$1,091.43</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
01.0B2.0B3.0B
2019Reported 1.0B
2020Reported 1.4B
2021Reported 1.0B
2022Reported 482.0M
2023
2023
2023
2023Reported 1.8B
2024Reported 1.6B
2025Reported 1.2B
2026Projected 1.7B
2027Projected 1.9B
2028Projected 2.1B
2029Projected 2.2B
2030Projected 2.4B
2031Projected 2.5B
2032Projected 2.6B
2033Projected 2.7B
2034Projected 2.8B
2035Projected 2.9B
2019202120232023202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
5.0B
5.4B
5.9B
6.3B
6.8B
7.1B
7.5B
7.8B
8.1B
8.3B
Growth
10.0%
9.2%
8.3%
7.5%
6.7%
5.8%
5.0%
4.2%
3.3%
2.5%
Cash margin
35.1%
35.1%
35.1%
35.1%
35.1%
35.1%
35.1%
35.1%
35.1%
35.1%
Free cash flow
1.7B
1.9B
2.1B
2.2B
2.4B
2.5B
2.6B
2.7B
2.8B
2.9B
Worth today
1.7B
1.7B
1.8B
1.8B
1.9B
1.9B
1.9B
1.8B
1.8B
1.8B
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.1%
1,137
1,424
1,893
2,795
5,252
4.6%
923
1,113
1,395
1,854
2,739
5.1%
770
904
1,091
1,368
1,821
5.6%
652
752
884
1,067
1,338
6.1%
562
638
736
865
1,045
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
28.1%
700
779
865
957
1,056
31.6%
795
883
978
1,081
1,192
35.1%
889
986
1,091
1,205
1,328
38.6%
983
1,090
1,205
1,329
1,464
42.1%
1,077
1,193
1,318
1,453
1,599
All the inputs moving at once
4,611 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 5.3%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$593.15
Median$1,044.63
90th percentile$2,038.59
$1,000.00$2,000.00$3,000.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$768.34</b> and <b>$1,460.90</b>; one in ten below $593.15, one in ten above $2,038.59.
Does the long run make sense?
26.5×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 26.5 times that year's EBITDA.
Free growthIn year 10 free cash flow is at or above after-tax operating profit, yet the model grows 2.5% forever. Growth needs reinvestment; this assumes it comes for free, which flatters the terminal value.
80%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 3 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market$111.3M33 sale(s) by 3 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans0%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
