AVTR · Technology(laboratory analytical instruments) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Avantor, Inc. reported revenue of $6.6 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 20.2% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from -16.9% in 2017 to -3.8%, and it earned -3.1% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $5.4 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 216.1% went to acquisitions and 15.5% back into the business. On the accounting screens, it passes 4 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 1.86 is in the grey zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 3 of the six cross-checks between its statements fire.
Revenue, fiscal 20256.6B+20.2% a year over 9 years
Operating margin-3.8%gross margin 32.7%
Return on invested capital-3.1%5.1% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay448.6M6.8% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA21.8×net debt 3.6B
Piotroski F-score4/9tests of improvement passed
Share counts are in today's shares. The SEC's filings restate only recent years after a split, so these jumps were read as splits and the older years scaled to match — otherwise per-share figures would compare different units:
3-for-1 before fiscal 2019.
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
-2B02B4B6B8B
2017Revenue 1.2BOperating income -210.4M
2018Revenue 5.9BOperating income 413.5M
2019Revenue 6.0BOperating income 551.8M
2020Revenue 6.4BOperating income 706.8M
2021
2021Revenue 7.4BOperating income 972.2M
2022Revenue 7.5BOperating income 1.1B
2023Revenue 7.0BOperating income 696.4M
2024Revenue 6.8BOperating income 1.1B
2025Revenue 6.6BOperating income -246.2M
2017201820192020202120212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
-4.5%
—
+20.2%
Free cash flow per share
-11.4%
—
—
Shares
+0.1%
—
—
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 8.2%
-5%0%5%10%15%
2017
2018Return on invested capital 13.2%
2019Return on invested capital 6.8%
2020Return on invested capital 1.2%
2021
2021Return on invested capital 6.6%
2022Return on invested capital 8.2%
2023Return on invested capital 5.0%
2024Return on invested capital 9.0%
2025Return on invested capital -3.1%
2017201820192020202120212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-1.5B-1.0B-0.5B00.5B
2017
2018Economic profit 195.0M
2019Economic profit -105.1M
2020Economic profit -527.2M
2021
2021Economic profit -176.9M
2022Economic profit 1.8M
2023Economic profit -336.3M
2024Economic profit 86.3M
2025Economic profit -1.1B
2017201820192020202120212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
-9.5%
Return on assets
-4.5%
Asset turnover
0.56×
Overheads (SG&A)
24.4% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-1.0B-0.5B00.5B1.0B
2017Net income -112.7MFree cash flow -192.7MAfter stock-based pay -240.9M
2018Net income -86.9MFree cash flow 162.8MAfter stock-based pay 144.4M
2019Net income 37.8MFree cash flow 302.4MAfter stock-based pay 234.5M
2020Net income 116.6MFree cash flow 868.2MAfter stock-based pay 824.1M
2021
2021Net income 572.6MFree cash flow 842.5MAfter stock-based pay 791.8M
2022Net income 686.5MFree cash flow 710.2MAfter stock-based pay 664.4M
2023Net income 321.1MFree cash flow 723.6MAfter stock-based pay 683.1M
2024Net income 711.5MFree cash flow 692.0MAfter stock-based pay 645.2M
2025Net income -530.2MFree cash flow 495.0MAfter stock-based pay 448.6M
2017201820192020202120212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2017–2025
5.4B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 16%844.6M
Acquisitions 216%11.8B
Dividends 0%0
Share buybacks 1%75.1M
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -133%-7.2B
Over the same years it paid 408.8M in stock. The buybacks did not even cover what was handed out in stock.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
-$1$0$1$2
2017
2018Earnings per share $-0.22Free cash flow per share $0.41
2019Earnings per share $0.09Free cash flow per share $0.75
2020Earnings per share $0.20Free cash flow per share $1.49
2021
2021Earnings per share $0.95Free cash flow per share $1.41
2022Earnings per share $1.01Free cash flow per share $1.05
2023Earnings per share $0.47Free cash flow per share $1.07
2024Earnings per share $1.04Free cash flow per share $1.01
2025Earnings per share $-0.78Free cash flow per share $0.73
2017201820192020202120212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
300M400M500M600M700M
2017
2018Diluted shares 398.1M
2019Diluted shares 401.2M
2020Diluted shares 583.4M
2021
2021Diluted shares 599.6M
2022Diluted shares 679.4M
2023Diluted shares 678.4M
2024Diluted shares 681.9M
2025Diluted shares 680.6M
2017201820192020202120212022202320242025
Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
02B4B6B8B
2017
2018Net debt 6.7B
2019Net debt 4.9B
2020Net debt 4.6B
2021
2021Net debt 6.7B
2022Net debt 5.9B
2023Net debt 5.3B
2024Net debt 3.8B
2025Net debt 3.6B
2017201820192020202120212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
21.8×
Interest coverage
-1× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.78 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
66 days collects in 60d, stock 68d, pays in 61d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
4of 9 tests passed
✕ProfitableReturn on assets above zerofailed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✕Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellfailed
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
✕Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforefailed
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
1.86grey zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.09 × 6.56+0.60
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.14 × 3.26+0.46
Operating income ÷ assets -0.02 × 6.72-0.14
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.89 × 1.05+0.94
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.91below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.08+0.99
Gross margin slipping 1.03+0.54
Soft assets 0.95+0.38
Sales growth 0.97+0.86
Slower depreciation 1.04+0.12
Overheads vs sales 1.01-0.17
Profit not in cash -0.10-0.46
Leverage rising 1.04-0.34
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Capital spending (129M) is well below depreciation (410M).
Benign
Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.
Worrying
Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.
The effective tax rate is -20.1%.
Benign
A favourable geographic mix, or legitimate tax credits.
Worrying
Not sustainable; projecting it forward inflates the valuation.
Net debt is 21.8 times EBITDA.
Benign
A stable sector with predictable cash flows and comfortable maturities.
Worrying
Little room if earnings fall; the maturity schedule is what to check.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$8.52discounted at 8.2% a year · 56% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
—
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
57.2×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
1.4×
Free cash flow yield
7.7%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today4.1B
Everything after, today5.3B
The whole business9.4B
Minus net debt-3.6B
What belongs to shareholders5.8B
Divided among 680.6M shares: <strong>$8.52</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-0.5B00.5B1.0B
2017Reported -240.9M
2018Reported 144.4M
2019Reported 234.5M
2020Reported 824.1M
2021
2021Reported 791.8M
2022Reported 664.4M
2023Reported 683.1M
2024Reported 645.2M
2025Reported 448.6M
2026Projected 637.3M
2027Projected 622.0M
2028Projected 611.0M
2029Projected 603.9M
2030Projected 600.5M
2031Projected 600.8M
2032Projected 604.8M
2033Projected 612.6M
2034Projected 624.1M
2035Projected 639.7M
2017201920212022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
6.4B
6.2B
6.1B
6.0B
6.0B
6.0B
6.0B
6.1B
6.2B
6.4B
Growth
-3.0%
-2.4%
-1.8%
-1.2%
-0.6%
0.1%
0.7%
1.3%
1.9%
2.5%
Cash margin
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
Free cash flow
637.3M
622.0M
611.0M
603.9M
600.5M
600.8M
604.8M
612.6M
624.1M
639.7M
Worth today
589.2M
531.7M
482.8M
441.1M
405.6M
375.2M
349.2M
326.9M
308.0M
291.8M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
7.2%
9
10
11
13
15
7.7%
8
9
10
11
13
8.2%
7
8
9
10
11
8.7%
6
7
7
8
9
9.2%
5
6
7
7
8
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
-7.0%
-5.0%
-3.0%
-1.0%
1.0%
8.0%
5
5
6
7
9
9.0%
5
6
7
9
10
10.0%
6
7
9
10
11
11.0%
7
8
10
11
12
12.0%
8
9
11
12
14
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$4.59
Median$8.54
90th percentile$14.77
$10.00$20.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$6.27</b> and <b>$11.40</b>; one in ten below $4.59, one in ten above $14.77.
Does the long run make sense?
72.5×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 72.5 times that year's EBITDA.
56%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 6 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market—none in the period
Under pre-arranged plans—of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
