ILMN · Technology(laboratory analytical instruments) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-28
Illumina, Inc. reported revenue of $4.3 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 3.0% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin narrowed from 26.5% in 2018 to 18.6%. Of the $6.6 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 45.9% went to acquisitions and 32.1% to buybacks; the share count rose 4.7%. On the accounting screens, it passes 7 of 8 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 3.04 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 2 of the six cross-checks between its statements fire.
Revenue, fiscal 20254.3B+3.0% a year over 9 years
Operating margin18.6%gross margin 66.1%
Return on invested capital—
Free cash flow after stock pay656.0M15.1% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA—net debt —
Piotroski F-score7/8tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
-5.0B-2.5B02.5B5.0B
2018Revenue 3.3BOperating income 883.0M
2018
2019
2019Revenue 3.5BOperating income 985.0M
2021Revenue 3.2BOperating income 580.0M
2022Revenue 4.5BOperating income -123.0M
2023Revenue 4.6BOperating income -4.2B
2023Revenue 4.5BOperating income -1.1B
2024Revenue 4.4BOperating income -833.0M
2025Revenue 4.3BOperating income 807.0M
2018201820192019202120222023202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
-1.8%
+6.0%
+3.0%
Operating income
—
+6.8%
-1.0%
Net income
—
+5.3%
+0.3%
Earnings per share
—
+4.2%
-0.2%
Free cash flow per share
+106.8%
-0.2%
+0.6%
Shares
-0.2%
+1.1%
+0.5%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Needs a cost of capital, which comes from the valuation below.
Return on equity
31.2%
Return on assets
12.8%
Asset turnover
0.65×
Research & development
22.3% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
25.0% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-6.0B-4.0B-2.0B02.0B
2018Net income 826.0MFree cash flow 846.0MAfter stock-based pay 653.0M
2018
2019
2019Net income 1.0BFree cash flow 842.0MAfter stock-based pay 648.0M
2021Net income 656.0MFree cash flow 891.0MAfter stock-based pay 697.0M
2022Net income 762.0MFree cash flow 337.0MAfter stock-based pay -417.0M
2023Net income -4.4BFree cash flow 106.0MAfter stock-based pay -260.0M
2023Net income -1.2BFree cash flow 283.0MAfter stock-based pay -97.0M
2024Net income -1.2BFree cash flow 709.0MAfter stock-based pay 339.0M
2025Net income 850.0MFree cash flow 931.0MAfter stock-based pay 656.0M
2018201820192019202120222023202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2018–2025
6.6B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 25%1.7B
Acquisitions 46%3.0B
Dividends 0%0
Share buybacks 32%2.1B
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -3%-202.0M
Over the same years it paid 2.7B in stock. The share count rose 4.7%. The buybacks did not even cover what was handed out in stock.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$-30.00$-20.00$-10.00$0.00$10.00
2018Earnings per share $5.54Free cash flow per share $5.68
2018
2019
2019Earnings per share $6.72Free cash flow per share $5.65
2021Earnings per share $4.43Free cash flow per share $6.02
2022Earnings per share $5.05Free cash flow per share $2.23
2023Earnings per share $-28.05Free cash flow per share $0.68
2023Earnings per share $-7.35Free cash flow per share $1.79
2024Earnings per share $-7.69Free cash flow per share $4.46
2025Earnings per share $5.45Free cash flow per share $5.97
2018201820192019202120222023202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
145.0M150.0M155.0M160.0M
2018Diluted shares 149.0M
2018
2019
2019Diluted shares 149.0M
2021Diluted shares 148.0M
2022Diluted shares 151.0M
2023Diluted shares 157.0M
2023Diluted shares 158.0M
2024Diluted shares 159.0M
2025Diluted shares 156.0M
2018201820192019202120222023202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
-1.0B01.0B2.0B
2018Net debt 853.0M
2018Net debt 1.1B
2019Net debt 838.0M
2019Net debt -901.0M
2021Net debt -626.0M
2022
2023
2023
2024
2025
2018201820192019202120222023202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
—
Interest coverage
8× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
2.08 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
152 days collects in 72d, stock 140d, pays in 59d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
7of 8 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
–Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fell — not reportedno data
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
✓Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforepassed
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
3.04safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.26 × 6.56+1.68
Retained earnings ÷ assets -0.06 × 3.26-0.19
Operating income ÷ assets 0.12 × 6.72+0.82
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.69 × 1.05+0.73
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.51below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.17+1.08
Gross margin slipping 0.99+0.52
Soft assets 0.90+0.36
Sales growth 0.99+0.89
Slower depreciation 1.15+0.13
Overheads vs sales 1.00-0.17
Profit not in cash -0.03-0.16
Leverage rising 0.97-0.32
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Receivables are growing 16% against revenue growing -1%.
Benign
A shift towards larger customers on longer terms, or sales concentrated at the end of the period.
Worrying
Sales are being made on looser credit, or revenue has been booked that may never be collected.
Capital spending (148M) is well below depreciation (270M).
Benign
Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.
Worrying
Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
With a free cash flow margin at or below zero in year ten, the business never generates cash for its owners and a DCF says nothing useful. Set a positive margin for year ten to see what it would take.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.