META · Technology(services-computer programming, data processing, etc.) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
Meta Platforms, Inc. reported revenue of $201.0 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 24.7% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin narrowed from 45.0% in 2016 to 41.4%, and it earned 21.2% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $531.1 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 45.1% went back into the business and 32.8% to buybacks; the share count fell 12.0%. On the accounting screens, it passes 5 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 5.34 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; none of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 2025201.0B+24.7% a year over 9 years
Operating margin41.4%gross margin 82.0%
Return on invested capital21.2%24.2% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay25.7B12.8% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA0.2×net debt 22.9B
Piotroski F-score5/9tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
0100.0B200.0B300.0B
2016Revenue 27.6BOperating income 12.4B
2017Revenue 40.7BOperating income 20.2B
2018Revenue 55.8BOperating income 24.9B
2019Revenue 70.7BOperating income 24.0B
2020Revenue 86.0BOperating income 32.7B
2021Revenue 117.9BOperating income 46.8B
2022Revenue 116.6BOperating income 28.9B
2023Revenue 134.9BOperating income 46.8B
2024Revenue 164.5BOperating income 69.4B
2025Revenue 201.0BOperating income 83.3B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+19.9%
+18.5%
+24.7%
Operating income
+42.2%
+20.6%
+23.5%
Net income
+37.6%
+15.7%
+21.8%
Earnings per share
+39.9%
+18.4%
+23.6%
Free cash flow per share
+35.9%
+17.0%
+18.2%
Shares
-1.6%
-2.3%
-1.4%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 8.8%
0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021Return on invested capital 31.2%
2022Return on invested capital 17.2%
2023Return on invested capital 22.5%
2024Return on invested capital 29.0%
2025Return on invested capital 21.2%
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
020.0B40.0B60.0B
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021Economic profit 28.0B
2022Economic profit 11.4B
2023Economic profit 23.5B
2024Economic profit 42.6B
2025Economic profit 34.3B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
27.8%
Return on assets
16.5%
Asset turnover
0.55×
Research & development
28.5% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
6.0% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
020.0B40.0B60.0B80.0B
2016Net income 10.2BFree cash flow 11.6BAfter stock-based pay 8.4B
2017Net income 15.9BFree cash flow 17.5BAfter stock-based pay 13.8B
2018Net income 22.1BFree cash flow 15.4BAfter stock-based pay 11.2B
2019Net income 18.5BFree cash flow 21.2BAfter stock-based pay 16.4B
2020Net income 29.1BFree cash flow 23.6BAfter stock-based pay 17.0B
2021Net income 39.4BFree cash flow 39.0BAfter stock-based pay 29.8B
2022Net income 23.2BFree cash flow 19.3BAfter stock-based pay 7.3B
2023Net income 39.1BFree cash flow 44.1BAfter stock-based pay 30.0B
2024Net income 62.4BFree cash flow 54.1BAfter stock-based pay 37.4B
2025Net income 60.5BFree cash flow 46.1BAfter stock-based pay 25.7B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025
531.1B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 45%239.3B
Acquisitions 0%0
Dividends 2%10.4B
Share buybacks 33%174.0B
Kept, or used to pay down debt 20%107.4B
Over the same years it paid 94.8B in stock. The share count fell 12.0%. 79.2B of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$0.00$10.00$20.00$30.00
2016Earnings per share $3.49Free cash flow per share $3.97
2017Earnings per share $5.39Free cash flow per share $5.91
2018Earnings per share $7.57Free cash flow per share $5.26
2019Earnings per share $6.43Free cash flow per share $7.38
2020Earnings per share $10.09Free cash flow per share $8.17
2021Earnings per share $13.77Free cash flow per share $13.64
2022Earnings per share $8.59Free cash flow per share $7.14Dividend per share $0.00
2023Earnings per share $14.87Free cash flow per share $16.76Dividend per share $0.00
2024Earnings per share $23.86Free cash flow per share $20.69Dividend per share $1.94
2025Earnings per share $23.49Free cash flow per share $17.91Dividend per share $2.07
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
2.5B2.6B2.7B2.8B2.9B3.0B
2016Diluted shares 2.9B
2017Diluted shares 3.0B
2018Diluted shares 2.9B
2019Diluted shares 2.9B
2020Diluted shares 2.9B
2021Diluted shares 2.9B
2022Diluted shares 2.7B
2023Diluted shares 2.6B
2024Diluted shares 2.6B
2025Diluted shares 2.6B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
-40.0B-20.0B020.0B40.0B
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021Net debt -16.6B
2022Net debt -4.8B
2023Net debt -23.5B
2024Net debt -15.1B
2025Net debt 22.9B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
0.2×
Interest coverage
76× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
2.60 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
— collects in 36d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
5of 9 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✕Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellfailed
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
✓Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforepassed
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
5.34safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.18 × 6.56+1.20
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.33 × 3.26+1.08
Operating income ÷ assets 0.23 × 6.72+1.53
Equity ÷ liabilities 1.46 × 1.05+1.53
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-3.11below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 0.95+0.88
Gross margin slipping 1.00+0.53
Soft assets 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.40
Sales growth 1.22+1.09
Slower depreciation 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.12
Overheads vs sales 1.02-0.18
Profit not in cash -0.15-0.71
Leverage rising 1.22-0.40
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
None of the six cross-checks fires for the latest year: receivables and inventory move with revenue, profit turns into cash, investment keeps up with depreciation, the tax rate is ordinary and debt is moderate.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$50.64discounted at 8.8% a year · 60% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
2.2×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
1.5×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
0.8×
Free cash flow yield
19.7%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today60.8B
Everything after, today92.4B
The whole business153.2B
Minus net debt-22.9B
What belongs to shareholders130.4B
Divided among 2.6B shares: <strong>$50.64</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
010.0B20.0B30.0B40.0B
2016Reported 8.4B
2017Reported 13.8B
2018Reported 11.2B
2019Reported 16.4B
2020Reported 17.0B
2021Reported 29.8B
2022Reported 7.3B
2023Reported 30.0B
2024Reported 37.4B
2025Reported 25.7B
2026Projected 5.8B
2027Projected 6.8B
2028Projected 7.8B
2029Projected 8.8B
2030Projected 9.8B
2031Projected 10.8B
2032Projected 11.6B
2033Projected 12.3B
2034Projected 12.8B
2035Projected 13.2B
2016201820202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
238.1B
278.0B
319.5B
361.6B
402.8B
441.5B
476.0B
504.9B
526.5B
539.6B
Growth
18.5%
16.7%
14.9%
13.2%
11.4%
9.6%
7.8%
6.1%
4.3%
2.5%
Cash margin
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
Free cash flow
5.8B
6.8B
7.8B
8.8B
9.8B
10.8B
11.6B
12.3B
12.8B
13.2B
Worth today
5.3B
5.7B
6.1B
6.3B
6.4B
6.5B
6.4B
6.3B
6.0B
5.7B
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
7.8%
53
57
63
69
77
8.3%
48
52
56
62
68
8.8%
44
47
51
55
60
9.3%
40
43
46
50
54
9.8%
37
39
42
45
49
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
14.5%
16.5%
18.5%
20.5%
22.5%
1.9%
34
37
41
45
49
2.2%
38
42
46
50
55
2.4%
42
46
51
55
61
2.7%
46
51
55
61
66
2.9%
50
55
60
66
72
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$0.25
Median$50.71
90th percentile$112.21
$0.00$100.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$23.57</b> and <b>$80.22</b>; one in ten below $0.25, one in ten above $112.21.
Does the long run make sense?
0.8×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 0.8 times that year's EBITDA.
3%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 92% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 3% on the new capital — it has earned 24% on average over the last five years.
60%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.