AVGO · Technology(semiconductors & related devices) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-11-02
Broadcom Inc. reported revenue of $63.9 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 19.1% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from -3.1% in 2016 to 39.9%, and it earned 29.7% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $136.7 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 49.8% went to acquisitions and 41.0% to dividends; the share count rose 26.7%. On the accounting screens, it passes 7 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 2.64 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 2 of the six cross-checks between its statements fire.
Revenue, fiscal 202563.9B+19.1% a year over 9 years
Operating margin39.9%gross margin 67.8%
Return on invested capital29.7%34.2% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay19.3B30.3% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDANet cash13.0B more cash than debt
Piotroski F-score7/9tests of improvement passed
Share counts are in today's shares. The SEC's filings restate only recent years after a split, so these jumps were read as splits and the older years scaled to match — otherwise per-share figures would compare different units:
10-for-1 before fiscal 2022.
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
-20.0B020.0B40.0B60.0B80.0B
2016Revenue 13.2BOperating income -409.0M
2017Revenue 17.6BOperating income 2.4B
2018Revenue 20.8BOperating income 5.1B
2019Revenue 22.6BOperating income 3.4B
2020Revenue 23.9BOperating income 4.0B
2021Revenue 27.4BOperating income 8.5B
2022Revenue 33.2BOperating income 14.2B
2023Revenue 35.8BOperating income 16.2B
2024Revenue 51.6BOperating income 13.5B
2025Revenue 63.9BOperating income 25.5B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+24.4%
+21.7%
+19.1%
Operating income
+21.5%
+44.7%
—
Net income
+26.2%
+50.9%
—
Earnings per share
+20.6%
+46.6%
—
Free cash flow per share
+12.9%
+15.0%
+25.8%
Dividend per share
+13.0%
+13.0%
+32.1%
Shares
+4.7%
+2.9%
+2.7%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 10.3%
-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%
2016
2017Return on invested capital 6.1%
2018Return on invested capital -9.1%
2019Return on invested capital 4.6%
2020Return on invested capital 4.9%
2021Return on invested capital 13.1%
2022Return on invested capital 56.9%
2023Return on invested capital 59.2%
2024Return on invested capital 12.2%
2025Return on invested capital 29.7%
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-10.0B010.0B20.0B
2016
2017Economic profit -1.6B
2018Economic profit -8.5B
2019Economic profit -3.3B
2020Economic profit -3.5B
2021Economic profit 1.8B
2022Economic profit 10.8B
2023Economic profit 12.5B
2024Economic profit 1.3B
2025Economic profit 16.4B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
28.4%
Return on assets
13.5%
Asset turnover
0.37×
Research & development
17.2% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
6.6% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-10.0B010.0B20.0B30.0B
2016Net income -1.7BFree cash flow 2.7BAfter stock-based pay 2.0B
2017Net income 1.7BFree cash flow 5.5BAfter stock-based pay 4.6B
2018Net income 12.3BFree cash flow 8.2BAfter stock-based pay 7.0B
2019Net income 2.7BFree cash flow 9.3BAfter stock-based pay 7.1B
2020Net income 3.0BFree cash flow 11.6BAfter stock-based pay 9.6B
2021Net income 6.7BFree cash flow 13.3BAfter stock-based pay 11.6B
2022Net income 11.5BFree cash flow 16.3BAfter stock-based pay 14.8B
2023Net income 14.1BFree cash flow 17.6BAfter stock-based pay 15.5B
2024Net income 5.9BFree cash flow 19.4BAfter stock-based pay 13.7B
2025Net income 23.1BFree cash flow 26.9BAfter stock-based pay 19.3B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025
136.7B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 4%5.8B
Acquisitions 50%68.1B
Dividends 41%56.0B
Share buybacks 26%35.1B
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -21%-28.4B
Over the same years it paid 25.7B in stock. The share count rose 26.7%. 9.4B of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$-2.00$0.00$2.00$4.00$6.00
2016Earnings per share $-0.45Free cash flow per share $0.70Dividend per share $0.19
2017Earnings per share $0.40Free cash flow per share $1.30Dividend per share $0.39
2018Earnings per share $2.84Free cash flow per share $1.91Dividend per share $0.68
2019Earnings per share $0.65Free cash flow per share $2.21Dividend per share $1.01
2020Earnings per share $0.70Free cash flow per share $2.75Dividend per share $1.24
2021Earnings per share $1.57Free cash flow per share $3.11Dividend per share $1.38
2022Earnings per share $2.72Free cash flow per share $3.85Dividend per share $1.59
2023Earnings per share $3.30Free cash flow per share $4.13Dividend per share $1.79
2024Earnings per share $1.23Free cash flow per share $4.06Dividend per share $2.05
2025Earnings per share $4.77Free cash flow per share $5.55Dividend per share $2.30
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
3.5B4.0B4.5B5.0B
2016Diluted shares 3.8B
2017Diluted shares 4.2B
2018Diluted shares 4.3B
2019Diluted shares 4.2B
2020Diluted shares 4.2B
2021Diluted shares 4.3B
2022Diluted shares 4.2B
2023Diluted shares 4.3B
2024Diluted shares 4.8B
2025Diluted shares 4.9B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
-20.0B020.0B40.0B
2016
2017Net debt 6.3B
2018Net debt 13.2B
2019Net debt 27.7B
2020Net debt 33.4B
2021Net debt 27.5B
2022Net debt -12.0B
2023Net debt -12.6B
2024Net debt -8.1B
2025Net debt -13.0B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
-0.5×
Interest coverage
8× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.71 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
53 days collects in 41d, stock 40d, pays in 28d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
7of 9 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✕Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellfailed
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✕No new sharesShare count did not growfailed
✓Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforepassed
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
2.64safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.08 × 6.56+0.50
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.06 × 3.26+0.19
Operating income ÷ assets 0.15 × 6.72+1.00
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.91 × 1.05+0.95
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.14below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.31+1.20
Gross margin slipping 0.93+0.49
Soft assets 0.92+0.37
Sales growth 1.24+1.10
Slower depreciation 1.03+0.12
Overheads vs sales 0.69-0.12
Profit not in cash -0.03-0.12
Leverage rising 1.07-0.35
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Receivables are growing 62% against revenue growing 24%.
Benign
A shift towards larger customers on longer terms, or sales concentrated at the end of the period.
Worrying
Sales are being made on looser credit, or revenue has been booked that may never be collected.
The effective tax rate is 1.7%.
Benign
A favourable geographic mix, or legitimate tax credits.
Worrying
Not sustainable; projecting it forward inflates the valuation.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$73.13discounted at 10.3% a year · 54% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
15.3×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
13.1×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
5.4×
Free cash flow yield
5.5%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today155.6B
Everything after, today186.3B
The whole business341.9B
Plus net cash13.0B
What belongs to shareholders354.9B
Divided among 4.9B shares: <strong>$73.13</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
010.0B20.0B30.0B40.0B
2016Reported 2.0B
2017Reported 4.6B
2018Reported 7.0B
2019Reported 7.1B
2020Reported 9.6B
2021Reported 11.6B
2022Reported 14.8B
2023Reported 15.5B
2024Reported 13.7B
2025Reported 19.3B
2026Projected 14.9B
2027Projected 17.8B
2028Projected 20.9B
2029Projected 24.1B
2030Projected 27.2B
2031Projected 30.2B
2032Projected 32.9B
2033Projected 35.1B
2034Projected 36.7B
2035Projected 37.6B
2016201820202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
77.6B
92.7B
108.7B
125.2B
141.5B
157.0B
170.9B
182.4B
190.8B
195.5B
Growth
21.5%
19.4%
17.3%
15.2%
13.1%
10.9%
8.8%
6.7%
4.6%
2.5%
Cash margin
19.3%
19.3%
19.3%
19.3%
19.3%
19.3%
19.3%
19.3%
19.3%
19.3%
Free cash flow
14.9B
17.8B
20.9B
24.1B
27.2B
30.2B
32.9B
35.1B
36.7B
37.6B
Worth today
13.6B
14.7B
15.6B
16.3B
16.7B
16.8B
16.6B
16.0B
15.2B
14.1B
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
9.3%
76
80
85
90
97
9.8%
71
74
79
83
89
10.3%
66
70
73
77
82
10.8%
63
65
68
72
76
11.3%
59
62
64
67
71
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
17.5%
19.5%
21.5%
23.5%
25.5%
15.4%
54
58
62
66
71
17.3%
58
63
68
73
78
19.3%
63
68
73
79
85
21.2%
68
73
79
85
91
23.1%
73
78
84
91
98
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.9%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$56.15
Median$73.20
90th percentile$97.93
$50.00$75.00$100.00$125.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$63.42</b> and <b>$84.75</b>; one in ten below $56.15, one in ten above $97.93.
Does the long run make sense?
6.2×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 6.2 times that year's EBITDA.
5%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 51% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 5% on the new capital — it has earned 34% on average over the last five years.
54%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
What lenders charge, after the tax saving on interest: 13.18% × (1 − 1.7%) = <strong>12.95%</strong>.
Weighted by how much of each the company uses (book value (no price given)): <strong>10.28%</strong>, the rate every future cash flow is discounted at.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.