MTD · Technology(laboratory analytical instruments) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
Mettler Toledo International INC/ reported revenue of $4.0 billion in fiscal 2025. Of the $7.1 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 100.1% went to buybacks and 14.2% back into the business. On the accounting screens, it passes 6 of 8 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 10.42 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; none of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 20254.0B
Operating margin27.8%gross margin —
Return on invested capital43.5%45.0% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay826.1M20.5% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA1.8×net debt 2.1B
Piotroski F-score6/8tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
02.0B4.0B6.0B
2016
2017Revenue 2.7BOperating income 607.0M
2018Revenue 2.9BOperating income 686.4M
2019Revenue 3.0BOperating income 718.8M
2020Revenue 3.1BOperating income 787.4M
2021Revenue 3.7BOperating income 992.6M
2022Revenue 3.9BOperating income 1.1B
2023Revenue 3.8BOperating income 1.1B
2024Revenue 3.9BOperating income 1.1B
2025Revenue 4.0BOperating income 1.1B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+0.9%
+5.5%
—
Operating income
-0.3%
+7.3%
—
Net income
-0.1%
+7.6%
—
Earnings per share
+3.1%
+11.0%
—
Free cash flow per share
+8.1%
+9.5%
—
Shares
-3.1%
-3.1%
—
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
GrossOperatingNetFree cash flow
0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%
2016
2017Operating 22.3%Net 13.8%Free cash flow 14.3%
2018Operating 23.4%Net 17.5%Free cash flow 14.4%
2019Operating 23.9%Net 18.6%Free cash flow 16.8%
2020Operating 25.5%Net 19.5%Free cash flow 20.5%
2021Operating 26.7%Net 20.7%Free cash flow 21.6%
2022Operating 28.7%Net 22.3%Free cash flow 18.8%
2023Operating 27.7%Net 20.8%Free cash flow 22.7%
2024Operating 28.7%Net 22.3%Free cash flow 22.3%
2025Operating 27.8%Net 21.6%Free cash flow 21.1%
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Return on invested capital
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 4.3%
0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%
2016
2017
2018Return on invested capital 33.2%
2019Return on invested capital 34.6%
2020Return on invested capital 39.2%
2021Return on invested capital 43.4%
2022Return on invested capital 45.0%
2023Return on invested capital 44.1%
2024Return on invested capital 49.0%
2025Return on invested capital 43.5%
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
0250.0M500.0M750.0M1.0B
2016
2017
2018Economic profit 470.0M
2019Economic profit 518.4M
2020Economic profit 564.4M
2021Economic profit 724.5M
2022Economic profit 830.1M
2023Economic profit 768.6M
2024Economic profit 844.2M
2025Economic profit 834.6M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
—
Return on assets
23.4%
Asset turnover
1.08×
Research & development
5.0% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
24.8% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
0250.0M500.0M750.0M1.0B
2016
2017Net income 376.0MFree cash flow 388.9MAfter stock-based pay 372.3M
2018Net income 512.6MFree cash flow 422.3MAfter stock-based pay 404.7M
2019Net income 561.1MFree cash flow 506.1MAfter stock-based pay 487.8M
2020Net income 602.7MFree cash flow 632.2MAfter stock-based pay 613.5M
2021Net income 769.0MFree cash flow 801.2MAfter stock-based pay 781.6M
2022Net income 872.5MFree cash flow 737.8MAfter stock-based pay 718.2M
2023Net income 788.8MFree cash flow 860.6MAfter stock-based pay 842.6M
2024Net income 863.1MFree cash flow 864.4MAfter stock-based pay 844.5M
2025Net income 869.2MFree cash flow 848.6MAfter stock-based pay 826.1M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025
7.1B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 14%1.0B
Acquisitions 7%490.8M
Dividends 0%0
Share buybacks 100%7.1B
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -21%-1.5B
Over the same years it paid 170.8M in stock. 6.9B of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$0.00$20.00$40.00$60.00
2016
2017Earnings per share $14.24Free cash flow per share $14.73
2018Earnings per share $19.88Free cash flow per share $16.38
2019Earnings per share $22.47Free cash flow per share $20.27
2020Earnings per share $24.91Free cash flow per share $26.13
2021Earnings per share $32.78Free cash flow per share $34.16
2022Earnings per share $38.41Free cash flow per share $32.48
2023Earnings per share $35.90Free cash flow per share $39.17
2024Earnings per share $40.48Free cash flow per share $40.55
2025Earnings per share $42.05Free cash flow per share $41.05
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
20.0M22.0M24.0M26.0M28.0M
2016
2017Diluted shares 26.4M
2018Diluted shares 25.8M
2019Diluted shares 25.0M
2020Diluted shares 24.2M
2021Diluted shares 23.5M
2022Diluted shares 22.7M
2023Diluted shares 22.0M
2024Diluted shares 21.3M
2025Diluted shares 20.7M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
01.0B2.0B3.0B
2016
2017
2018Net debt 856.6M
2019Net debt 1.1B
2020Net debt 1.2B
2021Net debt 1.6B
2022Net debt 1.9B
2023Net debt 2.0B
2024Net debt 2.0B
2025Net debt 2.1B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
1.8×
Interest coverage
16× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.14 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
— collects in 71d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
6of 8 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
–Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
10.42safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.04 × 6.56+0.29
Retained earnings ÷ assets 2.49 × 3.26+8.11
Operating income ÷ assets 0.30 × 6.72+2.02
Equity ÷ liabilities -0.01 × 1.05-0.01
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.44below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.09+1.00
Gross margin slipping 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.53
Soft assets 1.03+0.42
Sales growth 1.04+0.93
Slower depreciation 1.08+0.12
Overheads vs sales 1.03-0.18
Profit not in cash -0.02-0.11
Leverage rising 0.96-0.31
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
None of the six cross-checks fires for the latest year: receivables and inventory move with revenue, profit turns into cash, investment keeps up with depreciation, the tax rate is ordinary and debt is moderate.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
85% of the value comes from after year 10: this valuation rests mostly on the long run, which is exactly what is least known.
Value per share, with these assumptions$2,609.65discounted at 4.3% a year · 85% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
62.1×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
47.9×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
13.9×
Free cash flow yield
1.5%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today8.6B
Everything after, today47.4B
The whole business56.0B
Minus net debt-2.1B
What belongs to shareholders53.9B
Divided among 20.7M shares: <strong>$2,609.65</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
0500.0M1.0B1.5B
2016
2017Reported 372.3M
2018Reported 404.7M
2019Reported 487.8M
2020Reported 613.5M
2021Reported 781.6M
2022Reported 718.2M
2023Reported 842.6M
2024Reported 844.5M
2025Reported 826.1M
2026Projected 899.9M
2027Projected 946.4M
2028Projected 992.2M
2029Projected 1.0B
2030Projected 1.1B
2031Projected 1.1B
2032Projected 1.2B
2033Projected 1.2B
2034Projected 1.2B
2035Projected 1.3B
2016201820202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
4.2B
4.5B
4.7B
4.9B
5.1B
5.3B
5.5B
5.7B
5.8B
6.0B
Growth
5.5%
5.2%
4.8%
4.5%
4.2%
3.8%
3.5%
3.2%
2.8%
2.5%
Cash margin
21.2%
21.2%
21.2%
21.2%
21.2%
21.2%
21.2%
21.2%
21.2%
21.2%
Free cash flow
899.9M
946.4M
992.2M
1.0B
1.1B
1.1B
1.2B
1.2B
1.2B
1.3B
Worth today
862.9M
870.1M
874.6M
876.4M
875.3M
871.5M
864.8M
855.5M
843.5M
829.0M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
3.3%
2,717
3,744
6,070
16,415
—
3.8%
2,097
2,665
3,672
5,953
16,099
4.3%
1,698
2,054
2,610
3,594
5,820
4.8%
1,423
1,667
2,017
2,563
3,532
5.3%
1,219
1,395
1,635
1,979
2,515
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
1.5%
3.5%
5.5%
7.5%
9.5%
17.0%
1,735
1,913
2,106
2,315
2,541
19.1%
1,943
2,142
2,358
2,592
2,845
21.2%
2,151
2,371
2,610
2,868
3,148
23.3%
2,359
2,600
2,861
3,145
3,451
25.4%
2,567
2,829
3,114
3,422
3,755
All the inputs moving at once
3,855 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 3.2%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$1,267.40
Median$2,219.96
90th percentile$3,856.11
$2,000.00$4,000.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$1,630.84</b> and <b>$3,022.81</b>; one in ten below $1,267.40, one in ten above $3,856.11.
Does the long run make sense?
41.7×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 41.7 times that year's EBITDA.
32%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 8% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 32% on the new capital — it has earned 45% on average over the last five years.
85%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.