AKAM · Industrials(services-business services, nec) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Akamai Technologies Inc reported revenue of $4.2 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 4.2% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin narrowed from 19.0% in 2019 to 13.5%. Of the $9.3 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 39.3% went to buybacks and 30.0% back into the business; the share count fell 10.7%. On the accounting screens, it passes 5 of 8 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 2.86 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; none of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 20254.2B+4.2% a year over 9 years
Operating margin13.5%gross margin 58.9%
Return on invested capital—
Free cash flow after stock pay551.6M13.1% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA—net debt —
Piotroski F-score5/8tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
02B4B6B
2019Revenue 2.9BOperating income 548.9M
2020Revenue 3.2BOperating income 658.5M
2021Revenue 3.5BOperating income 783.1M
2022
2022
2022
2022Revenue 3.6BOperating income 676.3M
2023Revenue 3.8BOperating income 637.3M
2024Revenue 4.0BOperating income 533.4M
2025Revenue 4.2BOperating income 566.9M
2019202020212022202220222022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+5.2%
—
+4.2%
Operating income
-5.7%
—
+0.4%
Net income
-4.8%
—
-0.6%
Earnings per share
-2.0%
—
+0.6%
Free cash flow per share
+2.2%
—
+5.5%
Shares
-2.9%
—
-1.2%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 10.2%
0%5%10%15%
2019
2020
2021
2022
2022
2022
2022
2023
2024
2025
2019202020212022202220222022202320242025
Economic profit
Needs a cost of capital, which comes from the valuation below.
Return on equity
9.1%
Return on assets
3.9%
Asset turnover
0.37×
Research & development
12.2% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
15.6% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
00.5B1.0B1.5B
2019Net income 478.0MFree cash flow 698.6MAfter stock-based pay 511.5M
2020Net income 557.1MFree cash flow 700.7MAfter stock-based pay 503.3M
2021Net income 651.6MFree cash flow 1.1BAfter stock-based pay 872.8M
2022
2022
2022
2022Net income 523.7MFree cash flow 1.0BAfter stock-based pay 816.2M
2023Net income 547.6MFree cash flow 890.5MAfter stock-based pay 562.1M
2024Net income 504.9MFree cash flow 1.1BAfter stock-based pay 735.4M
2025Net income 452.0MFree cash flow 1.0BAfter stock-based pay 551.6M
2019202020212022202220222022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2019–2025
9.3B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 30%2.8B
Acquisitions 25%2.4B
Dividends 0%0
Share buybacks 39%3.7B
Kept, or used to pay down debt 5%509.1M
Over the same years it paid 2.0B in stock. The share count fell 10.7%. 1.7B of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$0$2$4$6$8
2019Earnings per share $2.90Free cash flow per share $4.25
2020Earnings per share $3.37Free cash flow per share $4.24
2021Earnings per share $3.93Free cash flow per share $6.49
2022
2022
2022
2022Earnings per share $3.26Free cash flow per share $6.44
2023Earnings per share $3.52Free cash flow per share $5.73
2024Earnings per share $3.27Free cash flow per share $7.31
2025Earnings per share $3.07Free cash flow per share $6.88
2019202020212022202220222022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
145M150M155M160M165M170M
2019Diluted shares 164.6M
2020Diluted shares 165.2M
2021Diluted shares 165.8M
2022
2022
2022
2022Diluted shares 160.5M
2023Diluted shares 155.4M
2024Diluted shares 154.3M
2025Diluted shares 147.0M
2019202020212022202220222022202320242025
Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
—
Interest coverage
18× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
2.36 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
— collects in 69d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
5of 8 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
–Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fell — not reportedno data
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
✕Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforefailed
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
2.86safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.11 × 6.56+0.75
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.30 × 3.26+0.97
Operating income ÷ assets 0.05 × 6.72+0.33
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.77 × 1.05+0.80
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.61below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.03+0.95
Gross margin slipping 1.01+0.53
Soft assets 1.07+0.43
Sales growth 1.05+0.94
Slower depreciation 1.05+0.12
Overheads vs sales 1.00-0.17
Profit not in cash -0.09-0.43
Leverage rising 0.42-0.14
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
None of the six cross-checks fires for the latest year: receivables and inventory move with revenue, profit turns into cash, investment keeps up with depreciation, the tax rate is ordinary and debt is moderate.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$23.51discounted at 10.2% a year · 49% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
7.6×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
2.7×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
0.8×
Free cash flow yield
16.0%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today1.8B
Everything after, today1.7B
The whole business3.5B
Minus net debt-0
What belongs to shareholders3.5B
Divided among 147.0M shares: <strong>$23.51</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
00.25B0.50B0.75B1.00B
2019Reported 511.5M
2020Reported 503.3M
2021Reported 872.8M
2022
2022
2022
2022Reported 816.2M
2023Reported 562.1M
2024Reported 735.4M
2025Reported 551.6M
2026Projected 247.7M
2027Projected 259.4M
2028Projected 270.9M
2029Projected 282.2M
2030Projected 293.2M
2031Projected 303.7M
2032Projected 313.9M
2033Projected 323.5M
2034Projected 332.4M
2035Projected 340.8M
2019202120222022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
4.4B
4.6B
4.8B
5.0B
5.2B
5.4B
5.6B
5.8B
5.9B
6.1B
Growth
5.0%
4.7%
4.4%
4.2%
3.9%
3.6%
3.3%
3.1%
2.8%
2.5%
Cash margin
5.6%
5.6%
5.6%
5.6%
5.6%
5.6%
5.6%
5.6%
5.6%
5.6%
Free cash flow
247.7M
259.4M
270.9M
282.2M
293.2M
303.7M
313.9M
323.5M
332.4M
340.8M
Worth today
224.7M
213.4M
202.2M
191.1M
180.1M
169.2M
158.6M
148.3M
138.3M
128.5M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
9.2%
24
26
27
29
31
9.7%
23
24
25
27
28
10.2%
21
22
24
25
26
10.7%
20
21
22
23
24
11.2%
19
20
21
22
23
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
1.0%
3.0%
5.0%
7.0%
9.0%
4.5%
17
18
20
22
23
5.0%
19
20
22
24
25
5.6%
20
22
24
25
28
6.2%
21
23
25
27
30
6.7%
23
25
27
29
32
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$14.83
Median$23.51
90th percentile$34.74
$10.00$20.00$30.00$40.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$18.80</b> and <b>$28.98</b>; one in ten below $14.83, one in ten above $34.74.
Does the long run make sense?
2.4×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 2.4 times that year's EBITDA.
6%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 45% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 6% on the new capital.
49%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
What lenders charge, after the tax saving on interest: 6.74% × (1 − 25.0%) = <strong>5.06%</strong>.
Weighted by how much of each the company uses (book value (no price given)): <strong>10.24%</strong>, the rate every future cash flow is discounted at.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 5 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market$1.9M5 sale(s) by 4 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans100%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.