AGNC · Real estate(real estate investment trusts) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Of the $7.2 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 120.0% went to dividends and 11.3% to buybacks; the share count rose 131.9%. On the accounting screens, it passes 3 of 5 Piotroski tests; 1 of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 2025—
Operating margin—gross margin —
Return on invested capital—
Free cash flow—
Net debt ÷ EBITDA—net debt —
Piotroski F-score3/5tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Net income
—
+17.4%
+32.9%
Earnings per share
—
+2.9%
+21.1%
Dividend per share
—
-0.7%
-3.8%
Shares
—
+14.1%
+9.8%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capital
Economic profit
Needs a cost of capital, which comes from the valuation below.
Return on equity
13.5%
Return on assets
1.5%
Asset turnover
—
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-2B-1B01B2B
2018Net income 129.0M
2019Net income 688.0M
2020
2020Net income -266.0M
2021Net income 749.0M
2022Net income -1.2B
2023
2023Net income 155.0M
2024Net income 863.0M
2025Net income 1.7B
2018201920202020202120222023202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2018–2025
7.2B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 0%0
Acquisitions 0%0
Dividends 120%8.7B
Share buybacks 11%813.0M
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -31%-2.3B
Over the same years it paid 113.0M in stock. The share count rose 131.9%. 700.0M of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
-$4-$2$0$2$4
2018Earnings per share $0.29Dividend per share $2.21
2019Earnings per share $1.27Dividend per share $2.10
2020
2020Earnings per share $-0.48Dividend per share $1.76
2021Earnings per share $1.41Dividend per share $1.62
2022Earnings per share $-2.22Dividend per share $1.62
2023
2023Earnings per share $0.25Dividend per share $1.62
2024Earnings per share $1.10Dividend per share $1.58
2025Earnings per share $1.63Dividend per share $1.56
2018201920202020202120222023202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
0.4B0.6B0.8B1.0B1.2B
2018Diluted shares 441.4M
2019Diluted shares 541.4M
2020
2020Diluted shares 551.6M
2021Diluted shares 530.0M
2022Diluted shares 537.0M
2023
2023Diluted shares 619.6M
2024Diluted shares 786.0M
2025Diluted shares 1.0B
2018201920202020202120222023202320242025
Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
—
Interest coverage
— operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
— current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
—
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
3of 5 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✕Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)failed
–Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fell — not reportedno data
–More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✕No new sharesShare count did not growfailed
–Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reportedno data
–Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year before — not reportedno data
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
The accounts lack a line it needs (retained earnings, current assets or liabilities).
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
The accounts lack too many of the lines it needs.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Reported profit comfortably exceeds the cash generated (1,670M against 653M).
Benign
Growth consuming working capital, or the seasonality of the year-end.
Worrying
Profit held up by accounting entries that do not turn into money.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
The SEC accounts lack the lines needed for revenue, free cash flow or the share count, so there is no DCF for this company.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 4 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market$2.8M9 sale(s) by 4 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans33%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
