AGM · Financials(federal & federally-sponsored credit agencies) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Of the $2.6 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 21.0% went to dividends. On the accounting screens, it passes 2 of 6 Piotroski tests; 1 of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 2025—
Operating margin—gross margin —
Return on invested capital1.6%2.1% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay71.7M
Net debt ÷ EBITDA—net debt 29.9B
Piotroski F-score2/6tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
00.5B1.0B1.5B
2016
2017Operating income 373.6M
2018Operating income 505.9M
2019Operating income 610.6M
2020Operating income 457.6M
2021Operating income 376.5M
2022Operating income 671.6M
2023Operating income 1.3B
2024Operating income 612.0M
2025Operating income 646.4M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Operating income
-1.3%
+7.2%
—
Net income
+5.2%
+12.6%
—
Earnings per share
+4.9%
+12.2%
—
Free cash flow per share
-53.9%
—
—
Dividend per share
+9.0%
+11.5%
—
Shares
+0.3%
+0.4%
—
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capital
Return on invested capital
0%1%2%3%4%
2016
2017
2018Return on invested capital 2.4%
2019Return on invested capital 2.4%
2020Return on invested capital 1.6%
2021Return on invested capital 1.2%
2022Return on invested capital 2.0%
2023Return on invested capital 3.7%
2024Return on invested capital 1.7%
2025Return on invested capital 1.6%
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Needs a cost of capital, which comes from the valuation below.
Return on equity
12.1%
Return on assets
0.6%
Asset turnover
—
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
00.25B0.50B0.75B1.00B
2016
2017Net income 84.5M
2018Net income 108.1M
2019Net income 109.5M
2020Net income 114.4M
2021Net income 136.1M
2022Net income 178.1MFree cash flow 809.3MAfter stock-based pay 804.6M
2023Net income 200.0MFree cash flow 375.8MAfter stock-based pay 369.0M
2024Net income 207.2MFree cash flow 607.4MAfter stock-based pay 599.3M
2025Net income 207.4MFree cash flow 80.1MAfter stock-based pay 71.7M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025
2.6B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 0%5.3M
Acquisitions 0%0
Dividends 21%540.3M
Share buybacks 1%13.1M
Kept, or used to pay down debt 78%2.0B
Over the same years it paid 43.8M in stock. The buybacks did not even cover what was handed out in stock.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$0$20$40$60$80
2016
2017Earnings per share $7.82Dividend per share $2.63
2018Earnings per share $10.06Dividend per share $3.53
2019Earnings per share $10.16Dividend per share $4.07
2020Earnings per share $10.60Dividend per share $4.70
2021Earnings per share $12.55Dividend per share $5.65
2022Earnings per share $16.37Free cash flow per share $74.36Dividend per share $6.26
2023Earnings per share $18.29Free cash flow per share $34.36Dividend per share $6.84
2024Earnings per share $18.88Free cash flow per share $55.34Dividend per share $7.84
2025Earnings per share $18.89Free cash flow per share $7.29Dividend per share $8.11
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
10.7M10.8M10.9M11.0M
2016
2017Diluted shares 10.8M
2018Diluted shares 10.7M
2019Diluted shares 10.8M
2020Diluted shares 10.8M
2021Diluted shares 10.8M
2022Diluted shares 10.9M
2023Diluted shares 10.9M
2024Diluted shares 11.0M
2025Diluted shares 11.0M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
010B20B30B
2016
2017
2018Net debt 15.8B
2019Net debt 18.5B
2020Net debt 20.8B
2021Net debt 21.8B
2022Net debt 24.1B
2023Net debt 25.7B
2024Net debt 26.5B
2025Net debt 29.9B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
—
Interest coverage
2× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
— current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
—
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
2of 6 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✕Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)failed
✕Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellfailed
–More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✕No new sharesShare count did not growfailed
–Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reportedno data
–Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year before — not reportedno data
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
The accounts lack a line it needs (retained earnings, current assets or liabilities).
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
The accounts lack too many of the lines it needs.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Reported profit comfortably exceeds the cash generated (207M against 80M).
Benign
Growth consuming working capital, or the seasonality of the year-end.
Worrying
Profit held up by accounting entries that do not turn into money.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
The SEC accounts lack the lines needed for revenue, free cash flow or the share count, so there is no DCF for this company.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 6 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market—none in the period
Under pre-arranged plans—of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Companies like this one
Same SEC industry (federal & federally-sponsored credit agencies) first, then the rest of financials.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.