Agree Realty Corp

ADC · Real estate (real estate investment trusts) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31

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Agree Realty Corp reported revenue of $718.4 million in fiscal 2025, after growing 25.7% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin narrowed from 56.4% in 2016 to 47.4%. Of the $2.4 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 314.6% went back into the business and 69.9% to dividends; the share count rose 384.3%. On the accounting screens, it passes 4 of 6 Piotroski tests; none of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.

Revenue, fiscal 2025 718.4M +25.7% a year over 9 years

Operating margin 47.4% gross margin —

Return on invested capital —

Free cash flow —

Net debt ÷ EBITDA — net debt —

Piotroski F-score 4/6 tests of improvement passed

Is it growing?

Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.

RevenueOperating income

Compound growth a year
	3 yrs	5 yrs	9 yrs
Revenue	+18.7%	+23.6%	+25.7%
Operating income	+16.0%	+20.7%	+23.3%
Net income	+10.3%	+17.5%	+18.3%
Earnings per share	-1.5%	+1.1%	-0.7%
Dividend per share	+3.3%	+6.7%	+5.9%
Shares	+12.0%	+16.2%	+19.2%

Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.

Does it earn more than its capital costs?

Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.

    GrossOperatingNetFree cash flow
    
  

Return on invested capital

Economic profit

Needs a cost of capital, which comes from the valuation below.

Return on equity: 3.3%
Return on assets: 2.1%
Asset turnover: 0.07×
Overheads (SG&A): 6.1% of revenue

Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?

Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.

Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay

Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025

2.4B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.

Reinvested in the business 315% 7.7B
Acquisitions 0% 0
Dividends 70% 1.7B
Share buybacks 1% 18.4M
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -285% -7.0B

Over the same years it paid 59.7M in stock. The share count rose 384.3%. The buybacks did not even cover what was handed out in stock.

Per share

    Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
    
  

Shares outstanding

Diluted shares

Debt and liquidity

Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.

Net debt

Net debt ÷ EBITDA: —
Interest coverage: 3× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio: — current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle: —

Three classic screens of the accounts

Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.

Piotroski F-score

Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.

4of 6 tests passed

ProfitableReturn on assets above zero passed
Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zero passed
Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year before failed
Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals) passed
Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fell — not reported no data
More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year before — not reported no data
No new sharesShare count did not grow failed
Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reported no data
Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year before passed

Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.

Altman Z''-score

Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?

The accounts lack a line it needs (retained earnings, current assets or liabilities).

Beneish M-score

Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?

The accounts lack too many of the lines it needs.

Where the statements disagree

Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.

None of the six cross-checks fires for the latest year: receivables and inventory move with revenue, profit turns into cash, investment keeps up with depreciation, the tax rate is ordinary and debt is moderate.

What is it worth, under which assumptions?

A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.

Revenue

Starting revenue

M $

revenue of fiscal 2025

Growth in year one

revenue grew +23.7% a year over the last 5 years; it fades to the terminal rate by the last year

Years until it settles

yrs

ten years for growth to fade to the terminal rate

Cash from each sale

Free cash flow margin today

no cash flow lines to measure it

Margin in the last year

the margin in year ten; by default the business keeps today's

Count stock-based pay as a costIt is paid in shares instead of cash, and shareholders bear it through dilution. Most free cash flow figures leave it out.

The long run

Growth after that, forever

growth forever after year ten, below the risk-free rate: no company outgrows the economy forever

The discount rate

Risk-free rate

10-year US Treasury par yield (U.S. Treasury), 2026-09-28

Beta

not measured on this public page, which uses only public filings: 1.0 assumes it moves like the market. Sign in to measure it from prices

Equity risk premium

the extra return demanded for holding shares; it cannot be measured, and 4–6% is the common range

Cost of debt, before tax

no interest line: the risk-free rate + 1.5 points

Tax rate

no tax line: the US federal rate, 21%

The price

Share price

Type the price you see at your broker. It is used only for the reverse questions: what that price implies.

Back to the defaults

SEC from the filings Treasury the 10-year yield measured from prices assumption cannot be measured yours you changed it

The SEC accounts lack the lines needed for revenue, free cash flow or the share count, so there is no DCF for this company.

What it has filed lately

The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.

Event 2026-09-22

Signed a material agreement; took on a financial obligation; published other information

Published other information

Event 2026-05-14

Published the results of a shareholder vote

Event 2026-04-24

Published other information

Estimatein 31d

Results for the period ending 2026-09-29

What its own directors and officers did

Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 4 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.

Bought on the open market$4.1M6 purchase(s) by 3 insider(s)

Sold on the open market—none in the period

Under pre-arranged plans—of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier

Other lines10 awards · 0 option exercises · 1 tax withholdings

Date	Who	What	Shares	Price	Value	Holds after
21 Sep 2026	Erlich CraigCHIEF GROWTH OFFICER	Bought on the open market	1,000	$67.55	$67,550	60,388
16 Sep 2026	Agree JoeyPRESIDENT & CEO	Bought on the open market	7,360	$68.06	$500,922	682,465
16 Sep 2026	Rakolta John JrDirector	Bought on the open market	20,000	$68.78	$1.4M	654,602
31 Aug 2026	Rakolta John JrDirector	Bought on the open market	10,000	$72.42	$724,200	632,197
28 Aug 2026	Rakolta John JrDirector	Bought on the open market	136	$73.52	$9,999	622,197
27 Aug 2026	Rakolta John JrDirector	Bought on the open market	20,000	$73.23	$1.5M	622,061
19 Aug 2026	Witteveen NicoleCHIEF OPERATING OFFICER	Shares withheld for taxes	293	$74.39	$21,796	23,274

A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.

Which large funds report holding it

From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.

Fund	Shares	Value	Share of the fund	Since the quarter before
Norges Bank (Norway's sovereign fund) 30 Jun 2026	1.6M	$117.5M	0.0%	New
Tudor Investment 30 Jun 2026	726,478	$55.0M	0.2%	Added to

All the funds and what they reported ›

Companies like this one

Same SEC industry (real estate investment trusts) first, then the rest of real estate.

WELL Welltower Inc.PLD Prologis, Inc.EQIX Equinix Inc AMT American Tower Corp SPG Simon Property Group Inc.DLR Digital Realty Trust, Inc.PSA Public Storage O Realty Income Corp

Every figure, year by year

10 fiscal years · 30 measures

	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Size
Revenue	91.5M	111.5M	137.1M	187.5M	248.6M	339.3M	429.8M	537.5M	617.1M	718.4M
Revenue growth	—	+21.8%	+23.0%	+36.7%	+32.6%	+36.5%	+26.7%	+25.1%	+14.8%	+16.4%
Operating income	51.7M	63.0M	73.0M	114.4M	133.1M	190.3M	218.1M	254.4M	302.2M	340.4M
Net income	45.1M	58.1M	58.2M	80.1M	91.4M	122.3M	152.4M	170.0M	189.2M	204.3M
Margins
Gross margin	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Operating margin	56.4%	56.5%	53.2%	61.0%	53.6%	56.1%	50.7%	47.3%	49.0%	47.4%
Net margin	49.3%	52.1%	42.4%	42.7%	36.8%	36.0%	35.5%	31.6%	30.7%	28.4%
Free cash flow margin	—	—	-375.6%	-307.3%	-469.5%	-337.0%	-288.0%	-150.4%	-71.7%	—
R&D ÷ revenue	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
SG&A ÷ revenue	8.6%	8.5%	8.6%	8.3%	8.4%	7.5%	7.0%	6.5%	6.0%	6.1%
Cash
Free cash flow	—	—	-515.1M	-576.2M	-1.2B	-1.1B	-1.2B	-808.4M	-442.5M	—
Stock-based pay	2.3M	2.4M	2.9M	4.0M	4.7M	4.8M	6.5M	8.3M	10.8M	13.0M
Free cash flow after stock pay	—	—	-518.0M	-580.2M	-1.2B	-1.1B	-1.2B	-816.7M	-453.3M	—
Free cash flow to the firm	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Free cash flow ÷ net income	—	—	-8.9×	-7.2×	-12.8×	-9.4×	-8.1×	-4.8×	-2.3×	—
Capex ÷ revenue	—	—	443.6%	374.9%	527.0%	409.6%	372.3%	223.3%	141.7%	—
Returns
Return on invested capital	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Return on equity	6.6%	6.4%	4.7%	4.7%	3.6%	3.6%	3.3%	3.3%	3.4%	3.3%
Return on assets	4.0%	3.9%	2.9%	3.0%	2.4%	2.3%	2.3%	2.2%	2.2%	2.1%
Asset turnover	0.1×	0.1×	0.1×	0.1×	0.1×	0.1×	0.1×	0.1×	0.1×	0.1×
Economic profit	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Per share
Earnings per share	$1.97	$2.10	$1.80	$1.94	$1.74	$1.82	$1.93	$1.78	$1.86	$1.84
Free cash flow per share	—	—	$-15.90	$-13.98	$-22.27	$-17.03	$-15.64	$-8.47	$-4.34	—
Dividend per share	$1.83	$1.99	$2.09	$2.19	$2.22	$2.89	$2.78	$2.91	$2.98	$3.06
Payout ratio	93.2%	94.9%	116.3%	112.7%	127.1%	158.9%	144.5%	163.4%	160.5%	166.7%
Book value per share	$26.10	$29.31	$32.92	$37.07	$42.06	$47.94	$51.33	$51.72	$51.38	$52.25
Diluted shares	23.0M	27.7M	32.4M	41.2M	52.4M	67.1M	79.2M	95.4M	101.9M	111.2M
Balance sheet
Net debt	370.7M	471.6M	670.1M	—	1.2B	1.7B	—	—	—	—
Net debt ÷ EBITDA	4.9×	5.3×	6.3×	—	6.1×	5.8×	—	—	—	—
Interest coverage	3.4×	3.5×	2.9×	3.5×	3.3×	3.8×	3.4×	3.1×	2.8×	2.5×
Current ratio	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Cash conversion cycle (days)	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Scores
Piotroski F-score	—	4	3	5	3	4	3	4	5	4
Altman Z''	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Beneish M	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.