ABM · Industrials(services-to dwellings & other buildings) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-10-31
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ABM Industries Inc reported revenue of $8.7 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 5.4% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from 1.9% in 2017 to 3.6%, and it earned 6.9% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $2.1 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 89.8% went to acquisitions and 23.1% back into the business; the share count rose 7.5%. On the accounting screens, it passes 7 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 2.57 is in the grey zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 1 of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 20258.7B+5.4% a year over 9 years
Operating margin3.6%gross margin 12.3%
Return on invested capital6.9%7.1% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay117.1M1.3% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA3.5×net debt 1.5B
Piotroski F-score7/9tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
02.5B5.0B7.5B10.0B
2017Revenue 5.5BOperating income 101.9M
2018Revenue 6.4BOperating income 138.6M
2018
2019Revenue 6.5BOperating income 208.3M
2020Revenue 6.0BOperating income 95.7M
2021Revenue 6.2BOperating income 206.3M
2022Revenue 7.8BOperating income 348.8M
2023Revenue 8.1BOperating income 409.5M
2024Revenue 8.4BOperating income 212.0M
2025Revenue 8.7BOperating income 311.7M
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+3.9%
+7.9%
+5.4%
Operating income
-3.7%
+26.6%
+13.2%
Net income
-11.0%
+252.1%
+51.8%
Earnings per share
-8.8%
+257.1%
+50.6%
Free cash flow per share
—
-16.9%
—
Dividend per share
+10.8%
+7.4%
+4.9%
Shares
-2.4%
-1.4%
+0.8%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 7.5%
0.0%2.5%5.0%7.5%10.0%
2017Return on invested capital 3.6%
2018Return on invested capital 5.2%
2018
2019Return on invested capital 7.1%
2020Return on invested capital 0.0%
2021Return on invested capital 5.8%
2022Return on invested capital 8.7%
2023Return on invested capital 10.0%
2024Return on invested capital 4.1%
2025Return on invested capital 6.9%
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-200.0M-100.0M0100.0M
2017Economic profit -101.0M
2018Economic profit -54.8M
2018
2019Economic profit -10.9M
2020Economic profit -167.0M
2021Economic profit -43.1M
2022Economic profit 34.2M
2023Economic profit 76.3M
2024Economic profit -105.8M
2025Economic profit -22.7M
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
9.1%
Return on assets
3.1%
Asset turnover
1.66×
Overheads (SG&A)
8.0% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-200.0M0200.0M400.0M600.0M
2017Net income 3.8MFree cash flow -51.6MAfter stock-based pay -64.9M
2018Net income 97.8MFree cash flow 270.0MAfter stock-based pay 253.0M
2018
2019Net income 127.4MFree cash flow 203.1MAfter stock-based pay 185.6M
2020Net income 300,000Free cash flow 419.5MAfter stock-based pay 399.2M
2021Net income 126.3MFree cash flow 280.0MAfter stock-based pay 246.5M
2022Net income 230.4MFree cash flow -30.4MAfter stock-based pay -60.9M
2023Net income 251.3MFree cash flow 190.7MAfter stock-based pay 160.2M
2024Net income 81.4MFree cash flow 167.3MAfter stock-based pay 137.3M
2025Net income 162.4MFree cash flow 155.1MAfter stock-based pay 117.1M
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2017–2025
2.1B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 23%482.1M
Acquisitions 90%1.9B
Dividends 22%465.0M
Share buybacks 20%426.9M
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -56%-1.2B
Over the same years it paid 230.6M in stock. The share count rose 7.5%. 196.3M of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$-2.00$0.00$2.00$4.00$6.00$8.00
2017Earnings per share $0.07Free cash flow per share $-0.89Dividend per share $0.68
2018Earnings per share $1.47Free cash flow per share $4.07Dividend per share $0.69
2018
2019Earnings per share $1.90Free cash flow per share $3.04Dividend per share $0.71
2020Earnings per share $0.00Free cash flow per share $6.23Dividend per share $0.73
2021Earnings per share $1.86Free cash flow per share $4.12Dividend per share $0.75
2022Earnings per share $3.41Free cash flow per share $-0.45Dividend per share $0.77
2023Earnings per share $3.79Free cash flow per share $2.88Dividend per share $0.87
2024Earnings per share $1.28Free cash flow per share $2.63Dividend per share $0.89
2025Earnings per share $2.59Free cash flow per share $2.47Dividend per share $1.05
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
57.5M60.0M62.5M65.0M67.5M70.0M
2017Diluted shares 58.3M
2018Diluted shares 66.4M
2018
2019Diluted shares 66.9M
2020Diluted shares 67.3M
2021Diluted shares 68.0M
2022Diluted shares 67.5M
2023Diluted shares 66.3M
2024Diluted shares 63.6M
2025Diluted shares 62.7M
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
0500.0M1.0B1.5B
2017Net debt 1.1B
2018Net debt 899.9M
2018
2019Net debt 742.9M
2020Net debt 325.5M
2021Net debt 821.4M
2022Net debt 1.2B
2023Net debt 1.2B
2024Net debt 1.3B
2025Net debt 1.5B
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
3.5×
Interest coverage
3× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.48 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
—
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
7of 9 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✕Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellfailed
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
✕Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforefailed
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
2.57grey zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.12 × 6.56+0.79
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.26 × 3.26+0.85
Operating income ÷ assets 0.06 × 6.72+0.40
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.51 × 1.05+0.54
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.49below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.92
Gross margin slipping 1.01+0.53
Soft assets 0.97+0.39
Sales growth 1.05+0.93
Slower depreciation 1.11+0.13
Overheads vs sales 0.87-0.15
Profit not in cash -0.01-0.06
Leverage rising 1.04-0.34
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Net debt is 3.5 times EBITDA.
Benign
A stable sector with predictable cash flows and comfortable maturities.
Worrying
Little room if earnings fall; the maturity schedule is what to check.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$78.19discounted at 7.5% a year · 64% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
30.2×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
15.3×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
0.7×
Free cash flow yield
2.4%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today2.3B
Everything after, today4.1B
The whole business6.4B
Minus net debt-1.5B
What belongs to shareholders4.9B
Divided among 62.7M shares: <strong>$78.19</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-200.0M0200.0M400.0M600.0M
2017Reported -64.9M
2018Reported 253.0M
2018
2019Reported 185.6M
2020Reported 399.2M
2021Reported 246.5M
2022Reported -60.9M
2023Reported 160.2M
2024Reported 137.3M
2025Reported 117.1M
2026Projected 267.3M
2027Projected 287.1M
2028Projected 306.5M
2029Projected 325.4M
2030Projected 343.5M
2031Projected 360.5M
2032Projected 376.1M
2033Projected 390.1M
2034Projected 402.3M
2035Projected 412.3M
2017201820202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
9.4B
10.1B
10.8B
11.5B
12.1B
12.7B
13.3B
13.8B
14.2B
14.6B
Growth
8.0%
7.4%
6.8%
6.2%
5.6%
4.9%
4.3%
3.7%
3.1%
2.5%
Cash margin
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
2.8%
Free cash flow
267.3M
287.1M
306.5M
325.4M
343.5M
360.5M
376.1M
390.1M
402.3M
412.3M
Worth today
248.6M
248.2M
246.5M
243.3M
238.8M
233.1M
226.1M
218.1M
209.1M
199.3M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
6.5%
82
92
104
120
141
7.0%
72
80
90
102
117
7.5%
64
70
78
88
100
8.0%
57
62
69
76
86
8.5%
51
56
61
67
75
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
2.3%
48
54
61
69
76
2.5%
55
62
70
78
87
2.8%
62
70
78
87
97
3.1%
69
78
87
96
107
3.4%
76
85
95
106
117
All the inputs moving at once
4,998 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$2.94
Median$78.46
90th percentile$176.85
$0.00$100.00$200.00$300.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$36.94</b> and <b>$123.99</b>; one in ten below $2.94, one in ten above $176.85.
Does the long run make sense?
12.1×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 12.1 times that year's EBITDA.
Free growthIn year 10 free cash flow is at or above after-tax operating profit, yet the model grows 2.5% forever. Growth needs reinvestment; this assumes it comes for free, which flatters the terminal value.
64%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 6 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market$3.0M5 sale(s) by 4 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans80%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.