YETI · Consumer discretionary(sporting & athletic goods, nec) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2026-01-03
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Yeti Holdings, Inc. reported revenue of $1.9 billion in fiscal 2026, after growing 9.6% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin held steady at about 11.4% from 2016, and it earned 22.2% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $1.9 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 32.3% went to buybacks and 24.8% to dividends. On the accounting screens, it passes 6 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 6.12 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 1 of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 20261.9B+9.6% a year over 9 years
Operating margin11.4%gross margin 57.4%
Return on invested capital22.2%23.2% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay164.4M8.8% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDANet cash115.8M more cash than debt
Piotroski F-score6/9tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
00.5B1.0B1.5B2.0B
2016Revenue 818.9MOperating income 88.2M
2017Revenue 639.2MOperating income 64.0M
2018Revenue 778.8MOperating income 102.2M
2019Revenue 913.7MOperating income 89.8M
2021Revenue 1.1BOperating income 214.2M
2022Revenue 1.4BOperating income 274.9M
2022Revenue 1.6BOperating income 126.4M
2023Revenue 1.7BOperating income 225.5M
2024Revenue 1.8BOperating income 245.4M
2026Revenue 1.9BOperating income 213.6M
2016201720182019202120222022202320242026
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+5.4%
+11.3%
+9.6%
Operating income
+19.1%
-0.1%
+10.3%
Net income
+22.6%
+1.2%
+14.7%
Earnings per share
+25.4%
+2.7%
+14.9%
Free cash flow per share
+60.4%
-8.2%
—
Shares
-2.2%
-1.5%
-0.2%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 9.7%
0%10%20%30%40%
2016
2017Return on invested capital 7.7%
2018Return on invested capital 23.7%
2019Return on invested capital 16.1%
2021Return on invested capital 38.6%
2022Return on invested capital 34.2%
2022Return on invested capital 15.7%
2023Return on invested capital 21.0%
2024Return on invested capital 22.7%
2026Return on invested capital 22.2%
2016201720182019202120222022202320242026
Economic profit
Economic profit
-50M050M100M150M200M
2016
2017Economic profit -8.1M
2018Economic profit 50.1M
2019Economic profit 26.6M
2021Economic profit 121.6M
2022Economic profit 155.9M
2022Economic profit 37.2M
2023Economic profit 91.1M
2024Economic profit 105.7M
2026Economic profit 90.1M
2016201720182019202120222022202320242026
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
25.4%
Return on assets
13.4%
Asset turnover
1.51×
Research & development
1.3% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
46.0% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-200M0200M400M
2016Net income 48.0MFree cash flow -6.7MAfter stock-based pay -125.1M
2017Net income 15.4MFree cash flow 105.6MAfter stock-based pay 92.2M
2018Net income 57.8MFree cash flow 155.2MAfter stock-based pay 142.0M
2019Net income 50.4MFree cash flow 54.8MAfter stock-based pay 2.5M
2021Net income 155.8MFree cash flow 350.9MAfter stock-based pay 341.9M
2022Net income 212.6MFree cash flow 90.4MAfter stock-based pay 74.9M
2022Net income 89.7MFree cash flow 55.0MAfter stock-based pay 37.2M
2023Net income 169.9MFree cash flow 235.3MAfter stock-based pay 205.5M
2024Net income 175.7MFree cash flow 219.6MAfter stock-based pay 178.8M
2026Net income 165.4MFree cash flow 212.1MAfter stock-based pay 164.4M
2016201720182019202120222022202320242026
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2026
1.9B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 21%383.5M
Acquisitions 2%36.2M
Dividends 25%459.9M
Share buybacks 32%599.8M
Kept, or used to pay down debt 20%376.2M
Over the same years it paid 357.9M in stock. The share count fell 1.4%. 241.9M of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
-$2$0$2$4$6
2016Earnings per share $0.58Free cash flow per share $-0.08Dividend per share $5.48
2017Earnings per share $0.19Free cash flow per share $1.27Dividend per share $0.03
2018Earnings per share $0.69Free cash flow per share $1.86Dividend per share $0.03
2019Earnings per share $0.58Free cash flow per share $0.63Dividend per share $0.01
2021Earnings per share $1.77Free cash flow per share $3.99Dividend per share $0.00
2022Earnings per share $2.40Free cash flow per share $1.02Dividend per share $0.00
2022Earnings per share $1.03Free cash flow per share $0.63
2023Earnings per share $1.94Free cash flow per share $2.69
2024Earnings per share $2.05Free cash flow per share $2.56
2026Earnings per share $2.03Free cash flow per share $2.60
2016201720182019202120222022202320242026
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
80M82M84M86M88M90M
2016Diluted shares 82.8M
2017Diluted shares 83.0M
2018Diluted shares 83.5M
2019Diluted shares 86.3M
2021Diluted shares 87.8M
2022Diluted shares 88.7M
2022Diluted shares 87.2M
2023Diluted shares 87.4M
2024Diluted shares 85.8M
2026Diluted shares 81.6M
2016201720182019202120222022202320242026
Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
-400M-200M0200M400M600M
2016
2017Net debt 422.0M
2018Net debt 248.0M
2019Net debt 224.2M
2021Net debt -119.8M
2022Net debt -193.9M
2022Net debt -140.5M
2023Net debt -356.1M
2024Net debt -281.8M
2026Net debt -115.8M
2016201720182019202120222022202320242026
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
-0.4×
Interest coverage
— operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.98 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
97 days collects in 28d, stock 133d, pays in 64d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
6of 9 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
✕Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforefailed
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
6.12safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.26 × 6.56+1.73
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.63 × 3.26+2.06
Operating income ÷ assets 0.17 × 6.72+1.16
Equity ÷ liabilities 1.11 × 1.05+1.17
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.63below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.15+1.06
Gross margin slipping 1.01+0.53
Soft assets 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.40
Sales growth 1.02+0.91
Slower depreciation 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.12
Overheads vs sales 1.03-0.18
Profit not in cash -0.07-0.34
Leverage rising 0.93-0.30
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Receivables are growing 18% against revenue growing 2%.
Benign
A shift towards larger customers on longer terms, or sales concentrated at the end of the period.
Worrying
Sales are being made on looser credit, or revenue has been booked that may never be collected.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$38.86discounted at 9.7% a year · 54% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
19.2×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
11.4×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
1.6×
Free cash flow yield
5.2%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today1.4B
Everything after, today1.6B
The whole business3.1B
Plus net cash115.8M
What belongs to shareholders3.2B
Divided among 81.6M shares: <strong>$38.86</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-200M0200M400M
2016Reported -125.1M
2017Reported 92.2M
2018Reported 142.0M
2019Reported 2.5M
2021Reported 341.9M
2022Reported 74.9M
2022Reported 37.2M
2023Reported 205.5M
2024Reported 178.8M
2026Reported 164.4M
2027Projected 166.7M
2028Projected 184.2M
2029Projected 201.7M
2030Projected 218.8M
2031Projected 235.3M
2032Projected 250.5M
2033Projected 264.3M
2034Projected 276.2M
2035Projected 285.9M
2036Projected 293.0M
2016201820212022202420272029203120332035
Year by year
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
Revenue
2.1B
2.3B
2.5B
2.7B
2.9B
3.1B
3.3B
3.5B
3.6B
3.7B
Growth
11.5%
10.5%
9.5%
8.5%
7.5%
6.5%
5.5%
4.5%
3.5%
2.5%
Cash margin
8.0%
8.0%
8.0%
8.0%
8.0%
8.0%
8.0%
8.0%
8.0%
8.0%
Free cash flow
166.7M
184.2M
201.7M
218.8M
235.3M
250.5M
264.3M
276.2M
285.9M
293.0M
Worth today
151.9M
153.0M
152.7M
151.0M
147.9M
143.6M
138.1M
131.5M
124.1M
115.9M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
8.7%
40
42
45
48
52
9.2%
37
39
42
44
48
9.7%
35
37
39
41
44
10.2%
33
35
36
38
40
10.7%
31
33
34
36
38
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
7.5%
9.5%
11.5%
13.5%
15.5%
6.4%
28
31
33
36
38
7.2%
31
33
36
39
42
8.0%
33
36
39
42
45
8.8%
36
39
42
45
49
9.6%
38
41
45
48
52
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$27.41
Median$38.90
90th percentile$54.79
$40.00$60.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$32.52</b> and <b>$46.44</b>; one in ten below $27.41, one in ten above $54.79.
Does the long run make sense?
7.9×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 7.9 times that year's EBITDA.
37%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 7% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 37% on the new capital — it has earned 23% on average over the last five years.
54%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 6 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market—none in the period
Under pre-arranged plans—of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
