AMZN · Consumer discretionary(retail-catalog & mail-order houses) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
Amazon Com Inc reported revenue of $716.9 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 20.3% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from 3.1% in 2016 to 11.2%, and it earned 13.4% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $604.3 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 79.7% went back into the business; the share count rose 11.8%. On the accounting screens, it passes 6 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 2.80 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; none of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 2025716.9B+20.3% a year over 9 years
Operating margin11.2%gross margin 50.3%
Return on invested capital13.4%12.4% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay-11.8B-1.6% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDANet cash18.4B more cash than debt
Piotroski F-score6/9tests of improvement passed
Share counts are in today's shares. The SEC's filings restate only recent years after a split, so these jumps were read as splits and the older years scaled to match — otherwise per-share figures would compare different units:
20-for-1 before fiscal 2020.
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
0200.0B400.0B600.0B800.0B
2016Revenue 136.0BOperating income 4.2B
2017Revenue 177.9BOperating income 4.1B
2018Revenue 232.9BOperating income 12.4B
2019Revenue 280.5BOperating income 14.5B
2020Revenue 386.1BOperating income 22.9B
2021Revenue 469.8BOperating income 24.9B
2022Revenue 514.0BOperating income 12.2B
2023Revenue 574.8BOperating income 36.9B
2024Revenue 638.0BOperating income 68.6B
2025Revenue 716.9BOperating income 80.0B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+11.7%
+13.2%
+20.3%
Operating income
+86.9%
+28.4%
+38.8%
Net income
—
+29.5%
+47.4%
Earnings per share
—
+28.0%
+45.5%
Free cash flow per share
—
-22.5%
-4.6%
Shares
+2.0%
+1.2%
+1.3%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 9.3%
0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%
2016Return on invested capital 9.5%
2017Return on invested capital 6.2%
2018Return on invested capital 16.2%
2019Return on invested capital 13.9%
2020Return on invested capital 16.0%
2021Return on invested capital 11.5%
2022Return on invested capital 8.7%
2023Return on invested capital 11.1%
2024Return on invested capital 17.3%
2025Return on invested capital 13.4%
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-10.0B010.0B20.0B30.0B
2016Economic profit 40.0M
2017Economic profit -1.6B
2018Economic profit 4.7B
2019Economic profit 4.0B
2020Economic profit 8.4B
2021Economic profit 4.2B
2022Economic profit -1.3B
2023Economic profit 4.8B
2024Economic profit 27.3B
2025Economic profit 19.6B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
18.9%
Return on assets
9.5%
Asset turnover
0.88×
Overheads (SG&A)
1.6% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-50.0B050.0B100.0B
2016Net income 2.4BFree cash flow 10.5BAfter stock-based pay 7.5B
2017Net income 3.0BFree cash flow 6.4BAfter stock-based pay 2.2B
2018Net income 10.1BFree cash flow 17.3BAfter stock-based pay 11.9B
2019Net income 11.6BFree cash flow 21.7BAfter stock-based pay 14.8B
2020Net income 21.3BFree cash flow 25.9BAfter stock-based pay 16.7B
2021Net income 33.4BFree cash flow -14.7BAfter stock-based pay -27.5B
2022Net income -2.7BFree cash flow -16.9BAfter stock-based pay -36.5B
2023Net income 30.4BFree cash flow 32.2BAfter stock-based pay 8.2B
2024Net income 59.2BFree cash flow 32.9BAfter stock-based pay 10.9B
2025Net income 77.7BFree cash flow 7.7BAfter stock-based pay -11.8B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025
604.3B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 80%481.4B
Acquisitions 3%18.7B
Dividends 0%0
Share buybacks 1%6.0B
Kept, or used to pay down debt 16%98.2B
Over the same years it paid 126.6B in stock. The share count rose 11.8%. The buybacks did not even cover what was handed out in stock.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$-2.50$0.00$2.50$5.00$7.50
2016Earnings per share $0.24Free cash flow per share $1.08
2017Earnings per share $0.31Free cash flow per share $0.65
2018Earnings per share $1.01Free cash flow per share $1.73
2019Earnings per share $1.15Free cash flow per share $2.15
2020Earnings per share $2.09Free cash flow per share $2.54
2021Earnings per share $3.24Free cash flow per share $-1.43
2022Earnings per share $-0.27Free cash flow per share $-1.66
2023Earnings per share $2.90Free cash flow per share $3.07
2024Earnings per share $5.53Free cash flow per share $3.07
2025Earnings per share $7.17Free cash flow per share $0.71
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
9.5B10.0B10.5B11.0B
2016Diluted shares 9.7B
2017Diluted shares 9.9B
2018Diluted shares 10.0B
2019Diluted shares 10.1B
2020Diluted shares 10.2B
2021Diluted shares 10.3B
2022Diluted shares 10.2B
2023Diluted shares 10.5B
2024Diluted shares 10.7B
2025Diluted shares 10.8B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
-30.0B-20.0B-10.0B010.0B20.0B
2016Net debt -10.6B
2017Net debt 4.3B
2018Net debt -6.9B
2019Net debt -11.4B
2020Net debt -9.2B
2021Net debt 14.0B
2022Net debt 16.3B
2023Net debt -6.6B
2024Net debt -21.1B
2025Net debt -18.4B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
-0.1×
Interest coverage
35× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.05 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
-51 days collects in 34d, stock 39d, pays in 125d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
6of 9 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
✕No new sharesShare count did not growfailed
✓Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforepassed
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
2.80safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.01 × 6.56+0.09
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.31 × 3.26+1.00
Operating income ÷ assets 0.10 × 6.72+0.66
Equity ÷ liabilities 1.01 × 1.05+1.06
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.61below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.09+1.00
Gross margin slipping 0.97+0.51
Soft assets 0.98+0.39
Sales growth 1.12+1.00
Slower depreciation 1.11+0.13
Overheads vs sales 0.88-0.15
Profit not in cash -0.08-0.35
Leverage rising 0.93-0.31
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
None of the six cross-checks fires for the latest year: receivables and inventory move with revenue, profit turns into cash, investment keeps up with depreciation, the tax rate is ordinary and debt is moderate.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$2.23discounted at 9.3% a year · 56% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
0.3×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
0.0×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
0.0×
Free cash flow yield
-48.7%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today2.5B
Everything after, today3.2B
The whole business5.7B
Plus net cash18.4B
What belongs to shareholders24.2B
Divided among 10.8B shares: <strong>$2.23</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-40.0B-20.0B020.0B
2016Reported 7.5B
2017Reported 2.2B
2018Reported 11.9B
2019Reported 14.8B
2020Reported 16.7B
2021Reported -27.5B
2022Reported -36.5B
2023Reported 8.2B
2024Reported 10.9B
2025Reported -11.8B
2026Projected 281.6M
2027Projected 315.0M
2028Projected 348.6M
2029Projected 381.7M
2030Projected 413.5M
2031Projected 443.1M
2032Projected 469.7M
2033Projected 492.4M
2034Projected 510.5M
2035Projected 523.2M
2016201820202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
810.1B
906.0B
1.00T
1.10T
1.19T
1.27T
1.35T
1.42T
1.47T
1.51T
Growth
13.0%
11.8%
10.7%
9.5%
8.3%
7.2%
6.0%
4.8%
3.7%
2.5%
Cash margin
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Free cash flow
281.6M
315.0M
348.6M
381.7M
413.5M
443.1M
469.7M
492.4M
510.5M
523.2M
Worth today
257.6M
263.5M
266.8M
267.2M
264.8M
259.6M
251.7M
241.4M
228.9M
214.6M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
8.3%
2
2
2
2
2
8.8%
2
2
2
2
2
9.3%
2
2
2
2
2
9.8%
2
2
2
2
2
10.3%
2
2
2
2
2
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
9.0%
11.0%
13.0%
15.0%
17.0%
0.0%
2
2
2
2
2
0.0%
2
2
2
2
2
0.0%
2
2
2
2
2
0.0%
2
2
2
2
2
0.0%
2
2
2
2
2
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$-29.67
Median$2.57
90th percentile$33.89
$-50.00$0.00$50.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$-13.59</b> and <b>$19.13</b>; one in ten below $-29.67, one in ten above $33.89.
Does the long run make sense?
0.0×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 0.0 times that year's EBITDA.
3%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 100% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 3% on the new capital — it has earned 12% on average over the last five years.
56%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.