WWW · Consumer discretionary(footwear, (no rubber)) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2026-01-03
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Wolverine World Wide Inc reported revenue of $1.9 billion in fiscal 2026, after shrinking 3.1% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from 6.6% in 2016 to 8.0%, and it earned 13.1% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $1.5 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 51.0% went to buybacks and 29.6% to acquisitions; the share count fell 15.1%. On the accounting screens, it passes 8 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 3.47 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 1 of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 20261.9B-3.1% a year over 9 years
Operating margin8.0%gross margin 47.3%
Return on invested capital13.1%-1.2% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay101.1M5.4% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA1.9×net debt 340.4M
Piotroski F-score8/9tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
-1B01B2B3B
2016Revenue 2.5BOperating income 163.8M
2017Revenue 2.4BOperating income 31.6M
2018Revenue 2.2BOperating income 251.9M
2019Revenue 2.3BOperating income 171.0M
2021Revenue 1.8BOperating income -137.1M
2022Revenue 2.4BOperating income 155.7M
2022Revenue 2.7BOperating income -208.4M
2023Revenue 2.2BOperating income -66.8M
2024Revenue 1.8BOperating income 97.5M
2026Revenue 1.9BOperating income 150.2M
2016201720182019202120222022202320242026
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
-11.3%
+0.9%
-3.1%
Operating income
—
—
-1.0%
Net income
—
—
+1.0%
Earnings per share
—
—
+2.8%
Free cash flow per share
—
-16.1%
-5.3%
Dividend per share
-0.3%
-0.4%
+5.9%
Shares
+0.8%
+0.2%
-1.8%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 7.2%
-40%-20%0%20%
2016Return on invested capital 7.3%
2017Return on invested capital 3.5%
2018Return on invested capital 15.5%
2019Return on invested capital 12.5%
2021Return on invested capital -13.3%
2022Return on invested capital 9.5%
2022Return on invested capital -24.8%
2023Return on invested capital -12.8%
2024Return on invested capital 9.2%
2026Return on invested capital 13.1%
2016201720182019202120222022202320242026
Economic profit
Economic profit
-400M-200M0200M
2016Economic profit 663,176
2017Economic profit -64.1M
2018Economic profit 118.4M
2019Economic profit 63.9M
2021Economic profit -263.8M
2022Economic profit 30.7M
2022Economic profit -337.2M
2023Economic profit -179.1M
2024Economic profit 17.5M
2026Economic profit 55.8M
2016201720182019202120222022202320242026
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
23.5%
Return on assets
5.6%
Asset turnover
1.10×
Overheads (SG&A)
38.9% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-400M-200M0200M400M
2016Net income 87.7MFree cash flow 241.0MAfter stock-based pay 218.2M
2017Net income 300,000Free cash flow 170.3MAfter stock-based pay 144.9M
2018Net income 200.1MFree cash flow 75.8MAfter stock-based pay 44.6M
2019Net income 128.5MFree cash flow 188.2MAfter stock-based pay 163.7M
2021Net income -136.9MFree cash flow 298.8MAfter stock-based pay 269.9M
2022Net income 68.6MFree cash flow 69.2MAfter stock-based pay 31.1M
2022Net income -188.3MFree cash flow -215.4MAfter stock-based pay -248.8M
2023Net income -38.5MFree cash flow 107.2MAfter stock-based pay 92.0M
2024Net income 45.2MFree cash flow 159.9MAfter stock-based pay 140.8M
2026Net income 95.8MFree cash flow 125.5MAfter stock-based pay 101.1M
2016201720182019202120222022202320242026
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2026
1.5B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 17%257.5M
Acquisitions 30%438.0M
Dividends 21%307.0M
Share buybacks 51%754.5M
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -19%-279.0M
Over the same years it paid 263.0M in stock. The share count fell 15.1%. 491.5M of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
-$4-$2$0$2$4
2016Earnings per share $0.91Free cash flow per share $2.51Dividend per share $0.24
2017Earnings per share $0.00Free cash flow per share $1.79Dividend per share $0.24
2018Earnings per share $2.11Free cash flow per share $0.80Dividend per share $0.30
2019Earnings per share $1.47Free cash flow per share $2.16Dividend per share $0.39
2021Earnings per share $-1.69Free cash flow per share $3.69Dividend per share $0.41
2022Earnings per share $0.82Free cash flow per share $0.83Dividend per share $0.40
2022Earnings per share $-2.36Free cash flow per share $-2.70Dividend per share $0.41
2023Earnings per share $-0.48Free cash flow per share $1.35Dividend per share $0.41
2024Earnings per share $0.56Free cash flow per share $2.00Dividend per share $0.41
2026Earnings per share $1.17Free cash flow per share $1.54Dividend per share $0.41
2016201720182019202120222022202320242026
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
75M80M85M90M95M100M
2016Diluted shares 96.2M
2017Diluted shares 95.4M
2018Diluted shares 95.0M
2019Diluted shares 87.2M
2021Diluted shares 81.0M
2022Diluted shares 83.3M
2022Diluted shares 79.7M
2023Diluted shares 79.4M
2024Diluted shares 80.0M
2026Diluted shares 81.7M
2016201720182019202120222022202320242026
Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
0200M400M600M800M
2016Net debt 448.0M
2017Net debt 301.1M
2018Net debt 302.4M
2019Net debt 257.8M
2021Net debt 375.1M
2022Net debt 580.1M
2022Net debt 601.5M
2023Net debt 436.8M
2024Net debt 425.9M
2026Net debt 340.4M
2016201720182019202120222022202320242026
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
1.9×
Interest coverage
5× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.40 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
68 days collects in 32d, stock 101d, pays in 65d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
8of 9 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✕No new sharesShare count did not growfailed
✓Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforepassed
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
3.47safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.12 × 6.56+0.80
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.54 × 3.26+1.75
Operating income ÷ assets 0.09 × 6.72+0.59
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.31 × 1.05+0.33
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.82below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 0.72+0.67
Gross margin slipping 0.94+0.49
Soft assets 0.99+0.40
Sales growth 1.07+0.95
Slower depreciation 0.93+0.11
Overheads vs sales 0.99-0.17
Profit not in cash -0.03-0.12
Leverage rising 0.95-0.31
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Capital spending (14M) is well below depreciation (26M).
Benign
Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.
Worrying
Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$37.42discounted at 7.2% a year · 63% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
31.9×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
19.3×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
1.8×
Free cash flow yield
3.3%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today1.3B
Everything after, today2.1B
The whole business3.4B
Minus net debt-340.4M
What belongs to shareholders3.1B
Divided among 81.7M shares: <strong>$37.42</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-400M-200M0200M400M
2016Reported 218.2M
2017Reported 144.9M
2018Reported 44.6M
2019Reported 163.7M
2021Reported 269.9M
2022Reported 31.1M
2022Reported -248.8M
2023Reported 92.0M
2024Reported 140.8M
2026Reported 101.1M
2027Projected 169.1M
2028Projected 171.1M
2029Projected 173.4M
2030Projected 176.0M
2031Projected 178.9M
2032Projected 182.2M
2033Projected 185.8M
2034Projected 189.9M
2035Projected 194.3M
2036Projected 199.1M
2016201820212022202420272029203120332035
Year by year
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
Revenue
1.9B
1.9B
1.9B
2.0B
2.0B
2.0B
2.1B
2.1B
2.2B
2.2B
Growth
1.0%
1.2%
1.3%
1.5%
1.7%
1.8%
2.0%
2.2%
2.3%
2.5%
Cash margin
8.9%
8.9%
8.9%
8.9%
8.9%
8.9%
8.9%
8.9%
8.9%
8.9%
Free cash flow
169.1M
171.1M
173.4M
176.0M
178.9M
182.2M
185.8M
189.9M
194.3M
199.1M
Worth today
157.7M
148.8M
140.6M
133.1M
126.2M
119.8M
114.0M
108.6M
103.6M
99.1M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
6.2%
39
43
49
56
65
6.7%
35
38
42
48
55
7.2%
31
34
37
42
47
7.7%
29
31
33
37
41
8.2%
26
28
30
33
36
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
-3.0%
-1.0%
1.0%
3.0%
5.0%
7.1%
25
28
31
34
37
8.0%
28
31
34
37
41
8.9%
31
34
37
41
45
9.8%
34
37
41
45
49
10.7%
36
40
44
49
54
All the inputs moving at once
4,997 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$23.90
Median$37.36
90th percentile$60.73
$25.00$50.00$75.00$100.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$29.63</b> and <b>$47.87</b>; one in ten below $23.90, one in ten above $60.73.
Does the long run make sense?
20.6×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 20.6 times that year's EBITDA.
Free growthIn year 10 free cash flow is at or above after-tax operating profit, yet the model grows 2.5% forever. Growth needs reinvestment; this assumes it comes for free, which flatters the terminal value.
63%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 6 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market$489,5001 sale(s) by 1 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans0%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.