UTI · Other(services-educational services) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-09-30
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Universal Technical Institute Inc reported revenue of $835.6 million in fiscal 2025, after growing 10.3% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from -5.4% in 2016 to 10.0%, and it earned 15.0% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $361.5 million its operations generated over 10 years, 87.3% went back into the business and 11.9% to acquisitions; the share count rose 128.7%. On the accounting screens, it passes 6 of 8 Piotroski tests and its Altman Z'' of 1.91 is in the grey zone; 1 of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 2025835.6M+10.3% a year over 9 years
Operating margin10.0%gross margin —
Return on invested capital15.0%8.5% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay46.2M5.5% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDANet cash40.3M more cash than debt
Piotroski F-score6/8tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
-0.25B00.25B0.50B0.75B1.00B
2016Revenue 347.1MOperating income -18.6M
2017Revenue 324.3MOperating income -1.8M
2018Revenue 317.0MOperating income -35.3M
2019Revenue 331.5MOperating income -7.8M
2020Revenue 300.8MOperating income -3.9M
2021Revenue 335.1MOperating income 14.9M
2022Revenue 418.8MOperating income 22.4M
2023Revenue 607.4MOperating income 21.4M
2024Revenue 732.7MOperating income 58.9M
2025Revenue 835.6MOperating income 83.5M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+25.9%
+22.7%
+10.3%
Operating income
+55.1%
—
—
Net income
+34.6%
+51.1%
—
Earnings per share
+13.9%
+33.6%
—
Free cash flow per share
—
+76.1%
—
Shares
+18.1%
+13.1%
+9.6%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 9.1%
-20%-10%0%10%20%
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020Return on invested capital -11.1%
2021Return on invested capital 6.5%
2022Return on invested capital 5.8%
2023Return on invested capital 3.8%
2024Return on invested capital 11.4%
2025Return on invested capital 15.0%
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-40M-20M020M40M
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020Economic profit -35.8M
2021Economic profit -5.6M
2022Economic profit -9.4M
2023Economic profit -20.8M
2024Economic profit 8.8M
2025Economic profit 24.5M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
19.2%
Return on assets
7.6%
Asset turnover
1.01×
Overheads (SG&A)
39.7% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-50M050M100M
2016Net income -47.7MFree cash flow -111,000After stock-based pay -5.0M
2017Net income -8.1MFree cash flow -7.0MAfter stock-based pay -10.0M
2018Net income -32.7MFree cash flow -34.0MAfter stock-based pay -35.8M
2019Net income -7.9MFree cash flow 15.3MAfter stock-based pay 13.9M
2020Net income 8.0MFree cash flow 1.8MAfter stock-based pay -307,000
2021Net income 14.6MFree cash flow -6.1MAfter stock-based pay -7.9M
2022Net income 25.8MFree cash flow -33.4MAfter stock-based pay -37.8M
2023Net income 12.3MFree cash flow -7.5MAfter stock-based pay -11.4M
2024Net income 42.0MFree cash flow 61.6MAfter stock-based pay 53.0M
2025Net income 63.0MFree cash flow 55.4MAfter stock-based pay 46.2M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025
361.5M generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 87%315.7M
Acquisitions 12%42.9M
Dividends 0%1.5M
Share buybacks 0%0
Kept, or used to pay down debt 0%1.5M
Over the same years it paid 40.8M in stock. The share count rose 128.7%.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
-$2-$1$0$1$2
2016Earnings per share $-1.96Free cash flow per share $-0.00Dividend per share $0.06
2017Earnings per share $-0.33Free cash flow per share $-0.29Dividend per share $0.00
2018Earnings per share $-1.30Free cash flow per share $-1.35Dividend per share $0.00
2019Earnings per share $-0.31Free cash flow per share $0.60
2020Earnings per share $0.27Free cash flow per share $0.06
2021Earnings per share $0.44Free cash flow per share $-0.18
2022Earnings per share $0.77Free cash flow per share $-0.99
2023Earnings per share $0.36Free cash flow per share $-0.22
2024Earnings per share $0.83Free cash flow per share $1.21
2025Earnings per share $1.13Free cash flow per share $1.00
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
20M30M40M50M60M
2016Diluted shares 24.3M
2017Diluted shares 24.7M
2018Diluted shares 25.1M
2019Diluted shares 25.4M
2020Diluted shares 30.1M
2021Diluted shares 33.1M
2022Diluted shares 33.7M
2023Diluted shares 34.5M
2024Diluted shares 50.9M
2025Diluted shares 55.6M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
-150M-100M-50M050M
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020Net debt -76.5M
2021Net debt -103.0M
2022Net debt 1.1M
2023Net debt 10.6M
2024Net debt -36.2M
2025Net debt -40.3M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
-0.3×
Interest coverage
15× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.07 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
— collects in 20d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
6of 8 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
✕No new sharesShare count did not growfailed
–Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
1.91grey zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.02 × 6.56+0.13
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.12 × 3.26+0.40
Operating income ÷ assets 0.10 × 6.72+0.68
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.66 × 1.05+0.69
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
The accounts lack too many of the lines it needs.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Receivables are growing 48% against revenue growing 14%.
Benign
A shift towards larger customers on longer terms, or sales concentrated at the end of the period.
Worrying
Sales are being made on looser credit, or revenue has been booked that may never be collected.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$13.05discounted at 9.1% a year · 60% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
11.5×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
5.9×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
0.8×
Free cash flow yield
6.4%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today275.1M
Everything after, today410.2M
The whole business685.3M
Plus net cash40.3M
What belongs to shareholders725.6M
Divided among 55.6M shares: <strong>$13.05</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-50M050M100M
2016Reported -5.0M
2017Reported -10.0M
2018Reported -35.8M
2019Reported 13.9M
2020Reported -307,000
2021Reported -7.9M
2022Reported -37.8M
2023Reported -11.4M
2024Reported 53.0M
2025Reported 46.2M
2026Projected 24.3M
2027Projected 29.3M
2028Projected 34.5M
2029Projected 40.0M
2030Projected 45.5M
2031Projected 50.6M
2032Projected 55.3M
2033Projected 59.1M
2034Projected 61.9M
2035Projected 63.4M
2016201820202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
1.0B
1.2B
1.5B
1.7B
1.9B
2.1B
2.3B
2.5B
2.6B
2.7B
Growth
22.5%
20.3%
18.1%
15.8%
13.6%
11.4%
9.2%
6.9%
4.7%
2.5%
Cash margin
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
Free cash flow
24.3M
29.3M
34.5M
40.0M
45.5M
50.6M
55.3M
59.1M
61.9M
63.4M
Worth today
22.3M
24.6M
26.6M
28.2M
29.4M
30.0M
30.0M
29.4M
28.2M
26.5M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
8.1%
13
14
15
17
18
8.6%
13
13
14
15
16
9.1%
12
12
13
14
15
9.6%
11
11
12
13
14
10.1%
10
11
11
12
13
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
18.5%
20.5%
22.5%
24.5%
26.5%
1.9%
10
10
11
12
13
2.1%
10
11
12
13
14
2.4%
11
12
13
14
15
2.6%
12
13
14
15
16
2.9%
13
14
15
16
17
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$2.28
Median$13.06
90th percentile$25.99
$0.00$20.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$7.31</b> and <b>$19.35</b>; one in ten below $2.28, one in ten above $25.99.
Does the long run make sense?
2.6×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 2.6 times that year's EBITDA.
4%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 68% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 4% on the new capital — it has earned 9% on average over the last five years.
60%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 2 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market$315,0195 purchase(s) by 1 insider(s)
Sold on the open market$3.9M2 sale(s) by 1 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans0%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.