AMCR · Other(miscellaneous manufacturing industries) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2026-06-30
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Amcor plc reported revenue of $23.5 billion in fiscal 2026, after growing 10.6% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin held steady at about 8.1% from 2019, and it earned 13.7% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $11.3 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 56.8% went to dividends and 37.7% back into the business; the share count rose 95.9%. On the accounting screens, it passes 7 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 1.21 is in the grey zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 1 of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 202623.5B+10.6% a year over 9 years
Operating margin8.1%gross margin 20.0%
Return on invested capital13.7%19.6% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay1.1B4.9% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDANet cash980.0M more cash than debt
Piotroski F-score7/9tests of improvement passed
Share counts are in today's shares. The SEC's filings restate only recent years after a split, so these jumps were read as splits and the older years scaled to match — otherwise per-share figures would compare different units:
1-for-5 before fiscal 2024.
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
010B20B30B
2019Revenue 9.5BOperating income 792.0M
2019
2020Revenue 12.5BOperating income 994.0M
2020
2021Revenue 12.9BOperating income 1.3B
2022Revenue 14.5BOperating income 1.2B
2023Revenue 14.7BOperating income 1.5B
2024Revenue 13.6BOperating income 1.2B
2025Revenue 15.0BOperating income 1.0B
2026Revenue 23.5BOperating income 1.9B
2019201920202020202120222023202420252026
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+17.0%
+12.8%
+10.6%
Operating income
+8.0%
+7.5%
+10.2%
Net income
+1.8%
+3.3%
+11.1%
Earnings per share
-12.4%
-4.6%
+3.1%
Free cash flow per share
+2.1%
-3.6%
+3.9%
Dividend per share
+1.7%
+1.6%
-1.2%
Shares
+16.3%
+8.3%
+7.8%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 10.3%
0%10%20%30%40%
2019Return on invested capital 5.2%
2019
2020Return on invested capital 15.9%
2020
2021Return on invested capital 21.2%
2022Return on invested capital 21.5%
2023Return on invested capital 31.1%
2024Return on invested capital 25.1%
2025Return on invested capital 6.7%
2026Return on invested capital 13.7%
2019201920202020202120222023202420252026
Economic profit
Economic profit
-1.0B-0.5B00.5B1.0B
2019Economic profit -554.0M
2019
2020Economic profit 274.4M
2020
2021Economic profit 533.5M
2022Economic profit 473.2M
2023Economic profit 854.4M
2024Economic profit 589.3M
2025Economic profit -414.9M
2026Economic profit 408.2M
2019201920202020202120222023202420252026
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
9.4%
Return on assets
3.0%
Asset turnover
0.63×
Research & development
0.7% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
8.2% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
00.5B1.0B1.5B
2019Net income 430.0MFree cash flow 443.8MAfter stock-based pay 424.8M
2019
2020Net income 612.0MFree cash flow 984.0MAfter stock-based pay 950.0M
2020
2021Net income 939.0MFree cash flow 993.0MAfter stock-based pay 935.0M
2022Net income 805.0MFree cash flow 999.0MAfter stock-based pay 936.0M
2023Net income 1.0BFree cash flow 735.0MAfter stock-based pay 681.0M
2024Net income 730.0MFree cash flow 829.0MAfter stock-based pay 797.0M
2025Net income 511.0MFree cash flow 810.0MAfter stock-based pay 736.0M
2026Net income 1.1BFree cash flow 1.2BAfter stock-based pay 1.1B
2019201920202020202120222023202420252026
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2019–2026
11.3B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 38%4.2B
Acquisitions 16%1.9B
Dividends 57%6.4B
Share buybacks 17%2.0B
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -28%-3.2B
Over the same years it paid 417.0M in stock. The share count rose 95.9%. 1.5B of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$0$1$2$3$4
2019Earnings per share $1.82Free cash flow per share $1.87Dividend per share $2.87
2019
2020Earnings per share $1.91Free cash flow per share $3.07Dividend per share $2.38
2020
2021Earnings per share $3.02Free cash flow per share $3.19Dividend per share $2.38
2022Earnings per share $2.66Free cash flow per share $3.29Dividend per share $2.41
2023Earnings per share $3.55Free cash flow per share $2.49Dividend per share $2.45
2024Earnings per share $2.53Free cash flow per share $2.88Dividend per share $2.51
2025Earnings per share $1.60Free cash flow per share $2.54Dividend per share $2.65
2026Earnings per share $2.38Free cash flow per share $2.65Dividend per share $2.58
2019201920202020202120222023202420252026
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
200M300M400M500M
2019Diluted shares 236.8M
2019
2020Diluted shares 320.4M
2020
2021Diluted shares 311.2M
2022Diluted shares 303.2M
2023Diluted shares 295.2M
2024Diluted shares 288.1M
2025Diluted shares 318.6M
2026Diluted shares 463.8M
2019201920202020202120222023202420252026
Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
-2B02B4B6B
2019Net debt 4.7B
2019
2020Net debt -548.0M
2020
2021Net debt -752.0M
2022Net debt -639.0M
2023Net debt -609.0M
2024Net debt -504.0M
2025Net debt -711.0M
2026Net debt -980.0M
2019201920202020202120222023202420252026
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
-0.3×
Interest coverage
3× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.25 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
— collects in 57d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
7of 9 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✕Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellfailed
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✕No new sharesShare count did not growfailed
✓Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforepassed
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
1.21grey zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.05 × 6.56+0.33
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.01 × 3.26+0.04
Operating income ÷ assets 0.05 × 6.72+0.34
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.47 × 1.05+0.49
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.46below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 0.68+0.62
Gross margin slipping 0.95+0.50
Soft assets 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.40
Sales growth 1.57+1.40
Slower depreciation 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.12
Overheads vs sales 1.02-0.18
Profit not in cash -0.03-0.13
Leverage rising 1.06-0.35
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Capital spending (922M) is well below depreciation (1,479M).
Benign
Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.
Worrying
Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$72.58discounted at 10.3% a year · 52% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
30.4×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
9.7×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
1.4×
Free cash flow yield
3.4%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today15.7B
Everything after, today17.0B
The whole business32.7B
Plus net cash980.0M
What belongs to shareholders33.7B
Divided among 463.8M shares: <strong>$72.58</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
01B2B3B4B
2019Reported 424.8M
2019
2020Reported 950.0M
2020
2021Reported 935.0M
2022Reported 936.0M
2023Reported 681.0M
2024Reported 797.0M
2025Reported 736.0M
2026Reported 1.1B
2027Projected 1.8B
2028Projected 2.1B
2029Projected 2.3B
2030Projected 2.5B
2031Projected 2.7B
2032Projected 2.9B
2033Projected 3.1B
2034Projected 3.2B
2035Projected 3.3B
2036Projected 3.4B
2019202020212023202520272029203120332035
Year by year
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
Revenue
26.6B
29.7B
32.9B
36.0B
39.0B
41.8B
44.3B
46.4B
48.1B
49.3B
Growth
13.0%
11.8%
10.7%
9.5%
8.3%
7.2%
6.0%
4.8%
3.7%
2.5%
Cash margin
6.9%
6.9%
6.9%
6.9%
6.9%
6.9%
6.9%
6.9%
6.9%
6.9%
Free cash flow
1.8B
2.1B
2.3B
2.5B
2.7B
2.9B
3.1B
3.2B
3.3B
3.4B
Worth today
1.7B
1.7B
1.7B
1.7B
1.7B
1.6B
1.5B
1.5B
1.4B
1.3B
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
9.2%
75
79
84
89
96
9.8%
70
74
78
82
88
10.3%
66
69
73
77
81
10.8%
62
65
68
71
75
11.2%
59
61
64
67
70
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
9.0%
11.0%
13.0%
15.0%
17.0%
5.5%
53
57
62
66
72
6.2%
58
62
67
72
78
6.9%
62
67
73
78
84
7.6%
67
72
78
84
91
8.3%
71
77
83
90
97
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$49.59
Median$72.48
90th percentile$103.28
$50.00$100.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$59.93</b> and <b>$87.41</b>; one in ten below $49.59, one in ten above $103.28.
Does the long run make sense?
6.4×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 6.4 times that year's EBITDA.
726%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 0% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 726% on the new capital — it has earned 20% on average over the last five years.
52%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
What lenders charge, after the tax saving on interest: 13.24% × (1 − 14.1%) = <strong>11.37%</strong>.
Weighted by how much of each the company uses (book value (no price given)): <strong>10.25%</strong>, the rate every future cash flow is discounted at.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 8 filings by 8 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market—none in the period
Under pre-arranged plans—of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
