UNM · Financials(accident & health insurance) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Unum Group reported revenue of $13.1 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 1.6% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin narrowed from 12.4% in 2017 to 7.1%, and it earned 5.0% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $11.0 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 33.1% went to buybacks and 20.4% to dividends; the share count fell 23.9%. On the accounting screens, it passes 3 of 7 Piotroski tests; 1 of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 202513.1B+1.6% a year over 9 years
Operating margin7.1%gross margin —
Return on invested capital5.0%9.8% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay501.8M3.8% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA3.4×net debt 3.6B
Piotroski F-score3/7tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
05B10B15B
2017Revenue 11.3BOperating income 1.4B
2018Revenue 11.6BOperating income 627.8M
2019Revenue 12.0BOperating income 1.4B
2020Revenue 13.2BOperating income 964.0M
2021
2021Revenue 12.0BOperating income 1.3B
2022Revenue 12.0BOperating income 1.8B
2023Revenue 12.4BOperating income 1.6B
2024Revenue 12.9BOperating income 2.3B
2025Revenue 13.1BOperating income 933.5M
2017201820192020202120212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+2.9%
—
+1.6%
Operating income
-18.9%
—
-4.4%
Net income
-19.3%
—
-3.2%
Earnings per share
-15.0%
—
-0.3%
Free cash flow per share
-21.0%
—
-4.0%
Dividend per share
+12.1%
—
+8.3%
Shares
-5.1%
—
-3.0%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
GrossOperatingNetFree cash flow
0%5%10%15%20%
2017Operating 12.4%Net 8.8%Free cash flow 9.4%
2018Operating 5.4%Net 4.5%Free cash flow 12.0%
2019Operating 11.5%Net 9.2%Free cash flow 12.1%
2020Operating 7.3%Net 6.0%Free cash flow 2.7%
2021
2021Operating 10.5%Net 8.2%Free cash flow 10.6%
2022Operating 14.6%Net 11.7%Free cash flow 11.0%
2023Operating 13.2%Net 10.4%Free cash flow 8.6%
2024Operating 17.5%Net 13.8%Free cash flow 10.8%
2025Operating 7.1%Net 5.6%Free cash flow 4.2%
2017201820192020202120212022202320242025
Return on invested capital
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 9.0%
0%5%10%15%
2017Return on invested capital 7.9%
2018Return on invested capital 4.5%
2019Return on invested capital 8.3%
2020Return on invested capital 5.6%
2021
2021Return on invested capital 10.4%
2022Return on invested capital 11.6%
2023Return on invested capital 9.8%
2024Return on invested capital 12.1%
2025Return on invested capital 5.0%
2017201820192020202120212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-1.0B-0.5B00.5B
2017Economic profit -131.7M
2018Economic profit -519.7M
2019Economic profit -95.7M
2020Economic profit -486.2M
2021
2021Economic profit 128.4M
2022Economic profit 312.6M
2023Economic profit 106.7M
2024Economic profit 456.3M
2025Economic profit -601.0M
2017201820192020202120212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
6.6%
Return on assets
1.2%
Asset turnover
0.21×
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
00.5B1.0B1.5B2.0B
2017Net income 994.2MFree cash flow 1.1BAfter stock-based pay 1.0B
2018Net income 523.4MFree cash flow 1.4BAfter stock-based pay 1.4B
2019Net income 1.1BFree cash flow 1.5BAfter stock-based pay 1.4B
2020Net income 793.0MFree cash flow 350.2MAfter stock-based pay 319.8M
2021
2021Net income 981.0MFree cash flow 1.3BAfter stock-based pay 1.2B
2022Net income 1.4BFree cash flow 1.3BAfter stock-based pay 1.3B
2023Net income 1.3BFree cash flow 1.1BAfter stock-based pay 1.0B
2024Net income 1.8BFree cash flow 1.4BAfter stock-based pay 1.3B
2025Net income 738.5MFree cash flow 555.4MAfter stock-based pay 501.8M
2017201820192020202120212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2017–2025
11.0B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 10%1.1B
Acquisitions 1%145.4M
Dividends 20%2.2B
Share buybacks 33%3.6B
Kept, or used to pay down debt 35%3.8B
Over the same years it paid 366.4M in stock. The share count fell 23.9%. 3.3B of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$0.0$2.5$5.0$7.5$10.0
2017Earnings per share $4.37Free cash flow per share $4.66Dividend per share $0.86
2018Earnings per share $2.38Free cash flow per share $6.33Dividend per share $0.98
2019Earnings per share $5.24Free cash flow per share $6.94Dividend per share $1.09
2020Earnings per share $3.89Free cash flow per share $1.72Dividend per share $1.14
2021
2021Earnings per share $4.79Free cash flow per share $6.23Dividend per share $1.17
2022Earnings per share $6.96Free cash flow per share $6.51Dividend per share $1.26
2023Earnings per share $6.50Free cash flow per share $5.40Dividend per share $1.40
2024Earnings per share $9.46Free cash flow per share $7.38Dividend per share $1.58
2025Earnings per share $4.27Free cash flow per share $3.21Dividend per share $1.77
2017201820192020202120212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
160M180M200M220M240M
2017Diluted shares 227.3M
2018Diluted shares 220.1M
2019Diluted shares 209.9M
2020Diluted shares 203.8M
2021
2021Diluted shares 204.8M
2022Diluted shares 202.1M
2023Diluted shares 197.6M
2024Diluted shares 188.1M
2025Diluted shares 172.9M
2017201820192020202120212022202320242025
Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
01B2B3B4B
2017Net debt 2.9B
2018Net debt 3.0B
2019Net debt 3.2B
2020Net debt 3.1B
2021
2021Net debt 3.4B
2022Net debt 3.3B
2023Net debt 3.3B
2024Net debt 3.6B
2025Net debt 3.6B
2017201820192020202120212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
3.4×
Interest coverage
— operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
— current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
—
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
3of 7 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✕Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)failed
✕Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellfailed
–More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
–Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
The accounts lack a line it needs (retained earnings, current assets or liabilities).
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
The accounts lack too many of the lines it needs.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Net debt is 3.4 times EBITDA.
Benign
A stable sector with predictable cash flows and comfortable maturities.
Worrying
Little room if earnings fall; the maturity schedule is what to check.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$88.51discounted at 9.0% a year · 54% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
20.7×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
17.9×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
1.4×
Free cash flow yield
3.3%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today8.7B
Everything after, today10.2B
The whole business18.9B
Minus net debt-3.6B
What belongs to shareholders15.3B
Divided among 172.9M shares: <strong>$88.51</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
00.5B1.0B1.5B2.0B
2017Reported 1.0B
2018Reported 1.4B
2019Reported 1.4B
2020Reported 319.8M
2021
2021Reported 1.2B
2022Reported 1.3B
2023Reported 1.0B
2024Reported 1.3B
2025Reported 501.8M
2026Projected 1.2B
2027Projected 1.3B
2028Projected 1.3B
2029Projected 1.3B
2030Projected 1.4B
2031Projected 1.4B
2032Projected 1.4B
2033Projected 1.5B
2034Projected 1.5B
2035Projected 1.5B
2017201920212022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
13.3B
13.6B
13.9B
14.2B
14.5B
14.8B
15.2B
15.6B
15.9B
16.3B
Growth
2.0%
2.1%
2.1%
2.2%
2.2%
2.3%
2.3%
2.4%
2.4%
2.5%
Cash margin
9.4%
9.4%
9.4%
9.4%
9.4%
9.4%
9.4%
9.4%
9.4%
9.4%
Free cash flow
1.2B
1.3B
1.3B
1.3B
1.4B
1.4B
1.4B
1.5B
1.5B
1.5B
Worth today
1.1B
1.1B
1.0B
942.0M
883.5M
829.0M
778.3M
731.1M
687.2M
646.2M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
8.0%
92
99
108
119
132
8.5%
84
90
98
106
117
9.0%
77
82
89
96
104
9.5%
71
75
81
87
94
10.0%
65
69
74
79
85
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
7.5%
58
64
72
80
88
8.4%
65
72
80
89
98
9.4%
72
80
89
98
108
10.3%
78
87
97
107
118
11.2%
85
95
105
116
129
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$57.59
Median$88.78
90th percentile$134.34
$50.00$100.00$150.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$70.76</b> and <b>$110.05</b>; one in ten below $57.59, one in ten above $134.34.
Does the long run make sense?
18.3×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 18.3 times that year's EBITDA.
Free growthIn year 10 free cash flow is at or above after-tax operating profit, yet the model grows 2.5% forever. Growth needs reinvestment; this assumes it comes for free, which flatters the terminal value.
54%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 5 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market$988,3943 sale(s) by 3 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans0%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.