TRU · Industrials(services-consumer credit reporting, collection agencies) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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TransUnion reported revenue of $4.6 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 11.6% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from 17.6% in 2016 to 18.7%, and it earned 6.4% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $6.5 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 35.3% went back into the business and 8.5% to dividends; the share count rose 6.5%. On the accounting screens, it passes 8 of 8 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 2.54 is in the grey zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 2 of the six cross-checks between its statements fire.
Revenue, fiscal 20254.6B+11.6% a year over 9 years
Operating margin18.7%gross margin —
Return on invested capital6.4%4.5% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay516.0M11.3% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA3.1×net debt 4.4B
Piotroski F-score8/8tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
02B4B6B
2016Revenue 1.7BOperating income 300.5M
2017Revenue 1.9BOperating income 464.7M
2018Revenue 2.3BOperating income 512.5M
2019Revenue 2.5BOperating income 541.7M
2020Revenue 2.5BOperating income 500.3M
2021Revenue 3.0BOperating income 651.9M
2022Revenue 3.7BOperating income 626.3M
2023Revenue 3.8BOperating income 128.5M
2024Revenue 4.2BOperating income 666.7M
2025Revenue 4.6BOperating income 857.8M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+7.2%
+12.6%
+11.6%
Operating income
+11.1%
+11.4%
+12.4%
Net income
+19.6%
+5.8%
+15.9%
Earnings per share
+18.9%
+5.3%
+15.1%
Free cash flow per share
—
+2.1%
+9.9%
Dividend per share
+4.5%
+9.0%
—
Shares
+0.6%
+0.5%
+0.7%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 6.8%
0.0%2.5%5.0%7.5%10.0%
2016Return on invested capital 5.1%
2017Return on invested capital 8.7%
2018Return on invested capital 7.3%
2019Return on invested capital 7.4%
2020Return on invested capital 6.6%
2021Return on invested capital 4.7%
2022Return on invested capital 4.4%
2023Return on invested capital 1.8%
2024Return on invested capital 5.3%
2025Return on invested capital 6.4%
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-600M-400M-200M0200M
2016Economic profit -60.8M
2017Economic profit 82.2M
2018Economic profit 29.3M
2019Economic profit 40.2M
2020Economic profit -12.9M
2021Economic profit -213.5M
2022Economic profit -234.1M
2023Economic profit -470.8M
2024Economic profit -136.1M
2025Economic profit -32.3M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
10.3%
Return on assets
4.1%
Asset turnover
0.41×
Overheads (SG&A)
27.6% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-0.5B00.5B1.0B1.5B
2016Net income 120.6MFree cash flow 265.9MAfter stock-based pay 241.5M
2017Net income 441.2MFree cash flow 330.5MAfter stock-based pay 297.4M
2018Net income 276.6MFree cash flow 375.6MAfter stock-based pay 317.7M
2019Net income 346.9MFree cash flow 588.5MAfter stock-based pay 540.2M
2020Net income 343.2MFree cash flow 582.0MAfter stock-based pay 537.7M
2021Net income 1.4BFree cash flow 584.1MAfter stock-based pay 514.9M
2022Net income 266.3MFree cash flow -1.0MAfter stock-based pay -83.8M
2023Net income -206.2MFree cash flow 334.7MAfter stock-based pay 234.4M
2024Net income 284.4MFree cash flow 516.7MAfter stock-based pay 395.5M
2025Net income 455.4MFree cash flow 661.6MAfter stock-based pay 516.0M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025
6.5B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 35%2.3B
Acquisitions 0%0
Dividends 9%558.6M
Share buybacks 7%436.2M
Kept, or used to pay down debt 50%3.2B
Over the same years it paid 727.1M in stock. The share count rose 6.5%. The buybacks did not even cover what was handed out in stock.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
-$2.5$0.0$2.5$5.0$7.5
2016Earnings per share $0.65Free cash flow per share $1.44Dividend per share $0.00
2017Earnings per share $2.32Free cash flow per share $1.74Dividend per share $0.00
2018Earnings per share $1.45Free cash flow per share $1.97Dividend per share $0.22
2019Earnings per share $1.81Free cash flow per share $3.07Dividend per share $0.30
2020Earnings per share $1.79Free cash flow per share $3.03Dividend per share $0.30
2021Earnings per share $7.20Free cash flow per share $3.03Dividend per share $0.36
2022Earnings per share $1.38Free cash flow per share $-0.01Dividend per share $0.40
2023Earnings per share $-1.07Free cash flow per share $1.73Dividend per share $0.42
2024Earnings per share $1.45Free cash flow per share $2.63Dividend per share $0.42
2025Earnings per share $2.32Free cash flow per share $3.37Dividend per share $0.46
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
180M185M190M195M200M
2016Diluted shares 184.6M
2017Diluted shares 189.9M
2018Diluted shares 190.9M
2019Diluted shares 191.8M
2020Diluted shares 192.2M
2021Diluted shares 193.0M
2022Diluted shares 193.1M
2023Diluted shares 193.4M
2024Diluted shares 196.7M
2025Diluted shares 196.6M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
02B4B6B
2016Net debt 2.2B
2017Net debt 2.3B
2018Net debt 3.9B
2019Net debt 3.4B
2020Net debt 3.0B
2021Net debt 4.5B
2022Net debt 5.1B
2023Net debt 5.0B
2024Net debt 4.5B
2025Net debt 4.4B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
3.1×
Interest coverage
4× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.75 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
— collects in 72d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
8of 8 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
–Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
2.54grey zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.08 × 6.56+0.51
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.25 × 3.26+0.80
Operating income ÷ assets 0.08 × 6.72+0.52
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.68 × 1.05+0.71
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.58below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.04+0.95
Gross margin slipping 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.53
Soft assets 0.97+0.39
Sales growth 1.09+0.98
Slower depreciation 1.05+0.12
Overheads vs sales 0.93-0.16
Profit not in cash -0.05-0.22
Leverage rising 1.00-0.33
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Capital spending (326M) is well below depreciation (575M).
Benign
Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.
Worrying
Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.
Net debt is 3.1 times EBITDA.
Benign
A stable sector with predictable cash flows and comfortable maturities.
Worrying
Little room if earnings fall; the maturity schedule is what to check.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$66.85discounted at 6.8% a year · 69% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
28.9×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
12.3×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
3.8×
Free cash flow yield
3.9%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today5.4B
Everything after, today12.2B
The whole business17.6B
Minus net debt-4.4B
What belongs to shareholders13.1B
Divided among 196.6M shares: <strong>$66.85</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-0.5B00.5B1.0B
2016Reported 241.5M
2017Reported 297.4M
2018Reported 317.7M
2019Reported 540.2M
2020Reported 537.7M
2021Reported 514.9M
2022Reported -83.8M
2023Reported 234.4M
2024Reported 395.5M
2025Reported 516.0M
2026Projected 536.4M
2027Projected 597.5M
2028Projected 659.0M
2029Projected 719.4M
2030Projected 777.3M
2031Projected 831.3M
2032Projected 879.8M
2033Projected 921.3M
2034Projected 954.6M
2035Projected 978.5M
2016201820202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
5.1B
5.7B
6.3B
6.9B
7.5B
8.0B
8.4B
8.8B
9.2B
9.4B
Growth
12.5%
11.4%
10.3%
9.2%
8.1%
6.9%
5.8%
4.7%
3.6%
2.5%
Cash margin
10.4%
10.4%
10.4%
10.4%
10.4%
10.4%
10.4%
10.4%
10.4%
10.4%
Free cash flow
536.4M
597.5M
659.0M
719.4M
777.3M
831.3M
879.8M
921.3M
954.6M
978.5M
Worth today
502.4M
524.2M
541.4M
553.6M
560.2M
561.2M
556.3M
545.6M
529.5M
508.3M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
5.8%
70
81
95
115
142
6.3%
60
68
79
93
112
6.8%
52
59
67
77
91
7.3%
45
50
57
65
76
7.8%
39
44
49
56
64
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
8.5%
10.5%
12.5%
14.5%
16.5%
8.3%
40
46
51
58
65
9.4%
46
53
59
66
74
10.4%
53
60
67
75
83
11.5%
59
67
75
83
92
12.5%
66
74
82
91
101
All the inputs moving at once
4,981 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$37.49
Median$66.73
90th percentile$121.61
$100.00$200.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$49.87</b> and <b>$91.03</b>; one in ten below $37.49, one in ten above $121.61.
Does the long run make sense?
8.0×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 8.0 times that year's EBITDA.
10%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 24% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 10% on the new capital — it has earned 5% on average over the last five years.
69%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 5 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market$2.1M4 sale(s) by 4 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans75%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.