TEX · Industrials(industrial trucks, tractors, trailors & stackers) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Terex Corp reported revenue of $5.4 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 4.0% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from 6.0% in 2017 to 8.8%, and it earned 7.7% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $2.4 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 87.3% went to acquisitions and 69.6% to buybacks; the share count fell 30.1%. On the accounting screens, it passes 6 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 3.84 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; none of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 20255.4B+4.0% a year over 9 years
Operating margin8.8%gross margin 19.4%
Return on invested capital7.7%15.0% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay290.0M5.3% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA2.9×net debt 1.8B
Piotroski F-score6/9tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
02B4B6B
2017Revenue 3.8BOperating income 228.2M
2018Revenue 4.5BOperating income 412.5M
2019Revenue 4.4BOperating income 335.0M
2020Revenue 3.1BOperating income 68.4M
2021
2021Revenue 3.9BOperating income 328.0M
2022Revenue 4.4BOperating income 420.0M
2023Revenue 5.2BOperating income 637.0M
2024Revenue 5.1BOperating income 526.0M
2025Revenue 5.4BOperating income 475.0M
2017201820192020202120212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+7.1%
—
+4.0%
Operating income
+4.2%
—
+8.5%
Net income
-9.7%
—
+6.2%
Earnings per share
-8.3%
—
+10.5%
Free cash flow per share
+30.7%
—
+16.0%
Dividend per share
+9.4%
—
+9.1%
Shares
-1.5%
—
-3.9%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 7.4%
0%10%20%30%
2017Return on invested capital 7.0%
2018Return on invested capital 16.7%
2019Return on invested capital 13.4%
2020Return on invested capital 2.7%
2021
2021Return on invested capital 15.1%
2022Return on invested capital 17.5%
2023Return on invested capital 25.0%
2024Return on invested capital 9.7%
2025Return on invested capital 7.7%
2017201820192020202120212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-200M0200M400M
2017Economic profit -9.2M
2018Economic profit 192.5M
2019Economic profit 126.9M
2020Economic profit -100.1M
2021
2021Economic profit 137.7M
2022Economic profit 197.6M
2023Economic profit 398.6M
2024Economic profit 102.1M
2025Economic profit 10.6M
2017201820192020202120212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
10.5%
Return on assets
3.6%
Asset turnover
0.88×
Research & development
0.7% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
10.6% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-200M0200M400M600M
2017Net income 128.7MFree cash flow 121.3MAfter stock-based pay 82.8M
2018Net income 113.7MFree cash flow 3.2MAfter stock-based pay -33.5M
2019Net income 54.4MFree cash flow 67.9MAfter stock-based pay 24.8M
2020Net income -10.6MFree cash flow 160.9MAfter stock-based pay 137.1M
2021
2021Net income 220.9MFree cash flow 233.7MAfter stock-based pay 200.6M
2022Net income 300.0MFree cash flow 151.0MAfter stock-based pay 121.0M
2023Net income 518.0MFree cash flow 332.0MAfter stock-based pay 288.0M
2024Net income 335.0MFree cash flow 189.0MAfter stock-based pay 159.0M
2025Net income 221.0MFree cash flow 322.0MAfter stock-based pay 290.0M
2017201820192020202120212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2017–2025
2.4B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 36%861.4M
Acquisitions 87%2.1B
Dividends 12%302.8M
Share buybacks 70%1.7B
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -105%-2.5B
Over the same years it paid 311.2M in stock. The share count fell 30.1%. 1.4B of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
-$2$0$2$4$6$8
2017Earnings per share $1.36Free cash flow per share $1.28Dividend per share $0.31
2018Earnings per share $1.48Free cash flow per share $0.04Dividend per share $0.39
2019Earnings per share $0.76Free cash flow per share $0.95Dividend per share $0.44
2020Earnings per share $-0.15Free cash flow per share $2.30Dividend per share $0.12
2021
2021Earnings per share $3.12Free cash flow per share $3.30Dividend per share $0.47
2022Earnings per share $4.32Free cash flow per share $2.18Dividend per share $0.52
2023Earnings per share $7.58Free cash flow per share $4.86Dividend per share $0.63
2024Earnings per share $4.96Free cash flow per share $2.80Dividend per share $0.68
2025Earnings per share $3.33Free cash flow per share $4.86Dividend per share $0.68
2017201820192020202120212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
60M70M80M90M100M
2017Diluted shares 94.9M
2018Diluted shares 76.9M
2019Diluted shares 71.8M
2020Diluted shares 70.1M
2021
2021Diluted shares 70.9M
2022Diluted shares 69.4M
2023Diluted shares 68.3M
2024Diluted shares 67.6M
2025Diluted shares 66.3M
2017201820192020202120212022202320242025
Debt and liquidity
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
01B2B3B
2017Net debt 415.3M
2018Net debt 881.3M
2019Net debt 643.8M
2020Net debt 512.0M
2021
2021Net debt 409.3M
2022Net debt 475.1M
2023Net debt 232.5M
2024Net debt 2.2B
2025Net debt 1.8B
2017201820192020202120212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
2.9×
Interest coverage
3× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
2.30 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
84 days collects in 48d, stock 93d, pays in 57d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
6of 9 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
✕Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforefailed
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
3.84safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.25 × 6.56+1.64
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.35 × 3.26+1.14
Operating income ÷ assets 0.08 × 6.72+0.52
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.52 × 1.05+0.54
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.58below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.05+0.96
Gross margin slipping 1.07+0.57
Soft assets 0.92+0.37
Sales growth 1.06+0.94
Slower depreciation 0.60+0.07
Overheads vs sales 1.01-0.17
Profit not in cash -0.04-0.17
Leverage rising 0.96-0.31
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
None of the six cross-checks fires for the latest year: receivables and inventory move with revenue, profit turns into cash, investment keeps up with depreciation, the tax rate is ordinary and debt is moderate.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$103.76discounted at 7.4% a year · 64% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
31.1×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
13.8×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
1.6×
Free cash flow yield
4.2%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today3.1B
Everything after, today5.6B
The whole business8.7B
Minus net debt-1.8B
What belongs to shareholders6.9B
Divided among 66.3M shares: <strong>$103.76</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-200M0200M400M600M
2017Reported 82.8M
2018Reported -33.5M
2019Reported 24.8M
2020Reported 137.1M
2021
2021Reported 200.6M
2022Reported 121.0M
2023Reported 288.0M
2024Reported 159.0M
2025Reported 290.0M
2026Projected 352.0M
2027Projected 379.5M
2028Projected 406.7M
2029Projected 433.2M
2030Projected 458.4M
2031Projected 482.1M
2032Projected 503.8M
2033Projected 523.1M
2034Projected 539.7M
2035Projected 553.2M
2017201920212022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
5.9B
6.3B
6.8B
7.2B
7.7B
8.1B
8.4B
8.7B
9.0B
9.2B
Growth
8.5%
7.8%
7.2%
6.5%
5.8%
5.2%
4.5%
3.8%
3.2%
2.5%
Cash margin
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
Free cash flow
352.0M
379.5M
406.7M
433.2M
458.4M
482.1M
503.8M
523.1M
539.7M
553.2M
Worth today
327.6M
328.8M
328.0M
325.2M
320.3M
313.5M
305.0M
294.8M
283.0M
270.0M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
6.4%
109
122
138
160
188
6.9%
96
106
119
135
156
7.4%
85
93
104
116
132
7.9%
76
83
91
102
114
8.4%
68
74
81
89
99
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
4.5%
6.5%
8.5%
10.5%
12.5%
4.8%
65
73
82
91
102
5.4%
74
83
93
103
115
6.0%
83
93
104
115
128
6.6%
92
103
115
127
141
7.2%
101
113
126
139
154
All the inputs moving at once
4,998 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$50.41
Median$103.47
90th percentile$186.43
$100.00$200.00$300.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$73.80</b> and <b>$142.22</b>; one in ten below $50.41, one in ten above $186.43.
Does the long run make sense?
10.7×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 10.7 times that year's EBITDA.
26%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 10% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 26% on the new capital — it has earned 15% on average over the last five years.
64%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 2 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market—none in the period
Under pre-arranged plans—of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.