TDW · Industrials(water transportation) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Tidewater Inc reported revenue of $1.4 billion in fiscal 2025. Of the $797.5 million its operations generated over 10 years, 77.1% went to acquisitions and 27.1% to buybacks. On the accounting screens, it passes 7 of 8 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 3.43 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 1 of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 20251.4B
Operating margin20.9%gross margin —
Return on invested capital6.8%8.2% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay338.9M25.0% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA0.2×net debt 76.1M
Piotroski F-score7/8tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
-500.0M0500.0M1.0B1.5B
2017
2017
2018Revenue 406.5MOperating income -107.5M
2019Revenue 486.5MOperating income -86.6M
2020Revenue 397.0MOperating income -186.8M
2021Revenue 371.0MOperating income -95.0M
2022Revenue 647.7MOperating income 26.7M
2023Revenue 1.0BOperating income 182.2M
2024Revenue 1.3BOperating income 311.3M
2025Revenue 1.4BOperating income 282.6M
2017201720182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+27.8%
+27.8%
—
Operating income
+119.5%
—
—
Free cash flow per share
+135.8%
—
—
Shares
+4.5%
+316.3%
—
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 8.3%
-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%
2017
2017
2018Return on invested capital -7.6%
2019Return on invested capital -8.3%
2020Return on invested capital -18.5%
2021Return on invested capital -11.5%
2022Return on invested capital 24.8%
2023Return on invested capital 7.1%
2024Return on invested capital 13.9%
2025Return on invested capital 6.8%
2017201720182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-400.0M-200.0M0200.0M
2017
2017
2018Economic profit -251.3M
2019Economic profit -215.7M
2020Economic profit -271.7M
2021Economic profit -171.5M
2022Economic profit 171.2M
2023Economic profit -21.4M
2024Economic profit 98.2M
2025Economic profit -29.9M
2017201720182019202020212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
24.5%
Return on assets
14.0%
Asset turnover
0.57×
Overheads (SG&A)
9.9% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-200.0M0200.0M400.0M
2017
2017
2018Net income -171.5MFree cash flow -17.4MAfter stock-based pay -30.9M
2019Net income -141.7MFree cash flow -49.4MAfter stock-based pay -69.0M
2020Net income -196.2MFree cash flow -10.9MAfter stock-based pay -16.0M
2021Net income -129.0MFree cash flow 6.1MAfter stock-based pay 417,000
2022Net income -21.7MFree cash flow 23.6MAfter stock-based pay 16.2M
2023Net income 97.2MFree cash flow 72.6MAfter stock-based pay 61.9M
2024Net income 180.7MFree cash flow 254.9MAfter stock-based pay 241.2M
2025Net income 334.7MFree cash flow 353.3MAfter stock-based pay 338.9M
2017201720182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2017–2025
797.5M generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 21%164.8M
Acquisitions 77%614.9M
Dividends 0%0
Share buybacks 27%215.9M
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -25%-198.1M
Over the same years it paid 90.1M in stock. 125.8M of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$-6,000.00$-4,000.00$-2,000.00$0.00$2,000.00
2017
2017
2018Earnings per share $-6.45Free cash flow per share $-0.66
2019Earnings per share $-3.71Free cash flow per share $-1.29
2020Earnings per share $-4,862.89Free cash flow per share $-270.45
2021Earnings per share $-3,144.90Free cash flow per share $147.65
2022Earnings per share $-0.49Free cash flow per share $0.53
2023Earnings per share $1.84Free cash flow per share $1.37
2024Earnings per share $3.40Free cash flow per share $4.80
2025Earnings per share $6.64Free cash flow per share $7.01
2017201720182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
020.0M40.0M60.0M
2017
2017Diluted shares 22.1M
2018Diluted shares 26.6M
2019Diluted shares 38.2M
2020Diluted shares 40,355
2021Diluted shares 41,009
2022Diluted shares 44.1M
2023Diluted shares 52.9M
2024Diluted shares 53.1M
2025Diluted shares 50.4M
2017201720182019202020212022202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
0200.0M400.0M600.0M
2017
2017Net debt 16.1M
2018Net debt 67.2M
2019Net debt 70.6M
2020Net debt 42.8M
2021Net debt 18.8M
2022Net debt 4.8M
2023Net debt 460.0M
2024Net debt 312.2M
2025Net debt 76.1M
2017201720182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
0.2×
Interest coverage
— operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
2.90 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
—
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
7of 8 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
–Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
3.43safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.25 × 6.56+1.65
Retained earnings ÷ assets -0.13 × 3.26-0.42
Operating income ÷ assets 0.12 × 6.72+0.80
Equity ÷ liabilities 1.34 × 1.05+1.40
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.25below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.92
Gross margin slipping 1.00 (not reported, set to 1)+0.53
Soft assets 1.81+0.73
Sales growth 1.01+0.90
Slower depreciation 0.94+0.11
Overheads vs sales 1.21-0.21
Profit not in cash -0.02-0.09
Leverage rising 0.93-0.30
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Capital spending (26M) is well below depreciation (151M).
Benign
Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.
Worrying
Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$259.77discounted at 8.3% a year · 64% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
39.1×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
30.4×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
9.7×
Free cash flow yield
2.6%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today4.7B
Everything after, today8.5B
The whole business13.2B
Minus net debt-76.1M
What belongs to shareholders13.1B
Divided among 50.4M shares: <strong>$259.77</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-500.0M0500.0M1.0B1.5B
2017
2017
2018Reported -30.9M
2019Reported -69.0M
2020Reported -16.0M
2021Reported 417,000
2022Reported 16.2M
2023Reported 61.9M
2024Reported 241.2M
2025Reported 338.9M
2026Projected 373.1M
2027Projected 457.0M
2028Projected 548.4M
2029Projected 644.4M
2030Projected 741.0M
2031Projected 833.6M
2032Projected 917.0M
2033Projected 985.8M
2034Projected 1.0B
2035Projected 1.1B
2017201820202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
1.7B
2.1B
2.5B
2.9B
3.4B
3.8B
4.2B
4.5B
4.7B
4.8B
Growth
25.0%
22.5%
20.0%
17.5%
15.0%
12.5%
10.0%
7.5%
5.0%
2.5%
Cash margin
22.1%
22.1%
22.1%
22.1%
22.1%
22.1%
22.1%
22.1%
22.1%
22.1%
Free cash flow
373.1M
457.0M
548.4M
644.4M
741.0M
833.6M
917.0M
985.8M
1.0B
1.1B
Worth today
344.5M
389.8M
432.0M
468.8M
497.9M
517.3M
525.5M
521.7M
505.9M
478.9M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
7.3%
269
292
320
354
397
7.8%
246
265
287
314
347
8.3%
226
241
260
282
308
8.8%
208
221
237
255
277
9.3%
193
204
217
233
250
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
21.0%
23.0%
25.0%
27.0%
29.0%
17.6%
184
199
215
232
251
19.9%
203
220
238
257
277
22.1%
222
240
260
281
303
24.3%
241
261
282
305
329
26.5%
260
281
304
329
355
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 3.3%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$188.23
Median$259.53
90th percentile$376.97
$200.00$400.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$218.82</b> and <b>$313.71</b>; one in ten below $188.23, one in ten above $376.97.
Does the long run make sense?
12.2×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 12.2 times that year's EBITDA.
Free growthIn year 10 free cash flow is at or above after-tax operating profit, yet the model grows 2.5% forever. Growth needs reinvestment; this assumes it comes for free, which flatters the terminal value.
64%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 4 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market—none in the period
Sold on the open market$5.5M6 sale(s) by 4 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans17%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.