SFST · Financials(national commercial banks) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Southern First Bancshares Inc reported revenue of $6.3 million in fiscal 2025, after shrinking 0.9% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from 417.7% in 2016 to 2301.1%. Of the $307.0 million its operations generated over 10 years, 23.3% went back into the business; the share count rose 21.4%. On the accounting screens, it passes 5 of 6 Piotroski tests; 1 of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 20256.3M-0.9% a year over 9 years
Operating margin2301.1%gross margin —
Return on invested capital—
Free cash flow after stock pay27.6M439.4% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA—net debt —
Piotroski F-score5/6tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
050.0M100.0M150.0M
2016Revenue 6.8MOperating income 28.6M
2017Revenue 5.2MOperating income 34.0M
2018Revenue 5.5MOperating income 45.2M
2019Revenue 9.9MOperating income 60.9M
2020Revenue 19.8MOperating income 38.8M
2021Revenue 11.4MOperating income 66.2M
2022Revenue 4.2MOperating income 58.2M
2023Revenue 4.0MOperating income 117.4M
2024Revenue 5.6MOperating income 101.1M
2025Revenue 6.3MOperating income 144.6M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+14.4%
-20.5%
-0.9%
Operating income
+35.5%
+30.1%
+19.7%
Net income
+1.4%
+10.6%
+9.9%
Earnings per share
+1.0%
+9.7%
+7.5%
Free cash flow per share
-6.7%
+16.5%
+8.7%
Shares
+0.4%
+0.8%
+2.2%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 10.2%
0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Needs a cost of capital, which comes from the valuation below.
Return on equity
8.2%
Return on assets
0.7%
Asset turnover
0.00×
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
020.0M40.0M60.0M
2016Net income 13.0MFree cash flow 11.7MAfter stock-based pay 9.7M
2017Net income 13.0MFree cash flow 11.8MAfter stock-based pay 10.6M
2018Net income 22.3MFree cash flow 29.8MAfter stock-based pay 28.3M
2019Net income 27.9MFree cash flow 9.9MAfter stock-based pay 8.2M
2020Net income 18.3MFree cash flow 13.3MAfter stock-based pay 11.9M
2021Net income 46.7MFree cash flow 51.6MAfter stock-based pay 49.9M
2022Net income 29.1MFree cash flow 36.4MAfter stock-based pay 34.3M
2023Net income 13.4MFree cash flow 16.4MAfter stock-based pay 14.5M
2024Net income 15.5MFree cash flow 24.8MAfter stock-based pay 22.5M
2025Net income 30.4MFree cash flow 29.9MAfter stock-based pay 27.6M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025
307.0M generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 23%71.5M
Acquisitions 0%0
Dividends 0%0
Share buybacks 0%0
Kept, or used to pay down debt 77%235.4M
Over the same years it paid 18.0M in stock. The share count rose 21.4%.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$0.00$2.00$4.00$6.00$8.00
2016Earnings per share $1.94Free cash flow per share $1.74
2017Earnings per share $1.76Free cash flow per share $1.60
2018Earnings per share $2.88Free cash flow per share $3.85
2019Earnings per share $3.58Free cash flow per share $1.27
2020Earnings per share $2.34Free cash flow per share $1.71
2021Earnings per share $5.85Free cash flow per share $6.45
2022Earnings per share $3.61Free cash flow per share $4.50
2023Earnings per share $1.66Free cash flow per share $2.03
2024Earnings per share $1.91Free cash flow per share $3.05
2025Earnings per share $3.72Free cash flow per share $3.66
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
6.5M7.0M7.5M8.0M8.5M
2016Diluted shares 6.7M
2017Diluted shares 7.4M
2018Diluted shares 7.7M
2019Diluted shares 7.8M
2020Diluted shares 7.8M
2021Diluted shares 8.0M
2022Diluted shares 8.1M
2023Diluted shares 8.1M
2024Diluted shares 8.1M
2025Diluted shares 8.2M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
—
Interest coverage
1× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
— current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
—
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
5of 6 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
–Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fell — not reportedno data
–More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✕No new sharesShare count did not growfailed
–Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before — not reportedno data
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
The accounts lack a line it needs (retained earnings, current assets or liabilities).
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
The accounts lack too many of the lines it needs.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Capital spending (1M) is well below depreciation (4M).
Benign
Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.
Worrying
Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$135.39discounted at 10.2% a year · 45% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
36.4×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
7.4×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
175.9×
Free cash flow yield
2.5%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today602.3M
Everything after, today502.5M
The whole business1.1B
Minus net debt-0
What belongs to shareholders1.1B
Divided among 8.2M shares: <strong>$135.39</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
050.0M100.0M150.0M
2016Reported 9.7M
2017Reported 10.6M
2018Reported 28.3M
2019Reported 8.2M
2020Reported 11.9M
2021Reported 49.9M
2022Reported 34.3M
2023Reported 14.5M
2024Reported 22.5M
2025Reported 27.6M
2026Projected 107.0M
2027Projected 102.6M
2028Projected 99.1M
2029Projected 96.7M
2030Projected 95.1M
2031Projected 94.3M
2032Projected 94.3M
2033Projected 95.0M
2034Projected 96.6M
2035Projected 99.0M
2016201820202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
6.0M
5.7M
5.5M
5.4M
5.3M
5.3M
5.3M
5.3M
5.4M
5.5M
Growth
-5.0%
-4.2%
-3.3%
-2.5%
-1.7%
-0.8%
0.0%
0.8%
1.7%
2.5%
Cash margin
1793.2%
1793.2%
1793.2%
1793.2%
1793.2%
1793.2%
1793.2%
1793.2%
1793.2%
1793.2%
Free cash flow
107.0M
102.6M
99.1M
96.7M
95.1M
94.3M
94.3M
95.0M
96.6M
99.0M
Worth today
97.1M
84.5M
74.1M
65.6M
58.6M
52.7M
47.8M
43.8M
40.4M
37.6M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
9.2%
139
147
155
164
175
9.7%
131
137
144
152
161
10.2%
124
129
135
142
150
10.7%
118
122
128
133
140
11.2%
112
116
121
126
131
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
-9.0%
-7.0%
-5.0%
-3.0%
-1.0%
1434.6%
99
107
116
126
137
1613.9%
107
116
126
137
148
1793.2%
114
125
135
147
160
1972.6%
122
133
145
158
171
2151.9%
130
142
155
168
183
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 269.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$39.01
Median$44.04
90th percentile$49.98
$40.00$45.00$50.00$55.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$41.46</b> and <b>$46.97</b>; one in ten below $39.01, one in ten above $49.98.
Does the long run make sense?
10.1×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 10.1 times that year's EBITDA.
Free growthIn year 10 free cash flow is at or above after-tax operating profit, yet the model grows 2.5% forever. Growth needs reinvestment; this assumes it comes for free, which flatters the terminal value.
45%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
What lenders charge, after the tax saving on interest: 6.67% × (1 − 23.3%) = <strong>5.11%</strong>.
Weighted by how much of each the company uses (book value (no price given)): <strong>10.17%</strong>, the rate every future cash flow is discounted at.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 3 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market$18,9821 purchase(s) by 1 insider(s)
Sold on the open market$756,40710 sale(s) by 2 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans0%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.