RSI · Consumer discretionary(services-miscellaneous amusement & recreation) · 9 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Rush Street Interactive, Inc. reported revenue of $1.1 billion in fiscal 2025. Of the $170.7 million its operations generated over 9 years, 7.8% went back into the business and 6.5% to buybacks. On the accounting screens, it passes 5 of 8 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 2.78 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 2 of the six cross-checks between its statements fire.
Revenue, fiscal 20251.1B
Operating margin7.7%gross margin 34.6%
Return on invested capital—
Free cash flow after stock pay138.0M12.2% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA—net debt —
Piotroski F-score5/8tests of improvement passed
Share counts are in today's shares. The SEC's filings restate only recent years after a split, so these jumps were read as splits and the older years scaled to match — otherwise per-share figures would compare different units:
1-for-4 before fiscal 2020.
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
-500.0M0500.0M1.0B1.5B
2018
2019Revenue 63.7MOperating income -22.3M
2020
2020Revenue 278.5MOperating income -133.4M
2021Revenue 488.1MOperating income -94.3M
2022Revenue 592.2MOperating income -124.8M
2023Revenue 691.2MOperating income -51.6M
2024Revenue 924.1MOperating income 25.0M
2025Revenue 1.1BOperating income 87.4M
201820192020202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
8 yrs
Revenue
+24.2%
+32.4%
—
Net income
—
+98.5%
—
Earnings per share
—
+46.8%
—
Free cash flow per share
—
+20.5%
—
Shares
+54.9%
+35.2%
—
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 10.2%
0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%
2018
2019
2020
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
201820192020202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Needs a cost of capital, which comes from the valuation below.
Return on equity
22.6%
Return on assets
5.1%
Asset turnover
1.72×
Overheads (SG&A)
8.9% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-200.0M-100.0M0100.0M200.0M
2018
2019Net income -22.4MFree cash flow -2.9MAfter stock-based pay -16.3M
2020
2020Net income 1.1MFree cash flow 14.3MAfter stock-based pay -130.4M
2021Net income -19.5MFree cash flow -52.0MAfter stock-based pay -76.9M
2022Net income -38.6MFree cash flow -64.5MAfter stock-based pay -83.2M
2023Net income -18.3MFree cash flow -7.2MAfter stock-based pay -37.2M
2024Net income 2.4MFree cash flow 105.5MAfter stock-based pay 70.2M
2025Net income 33.3MFree cash flow 164.2MAfter stock-based pay 138.0M
201820192020202020212022202320242025
Where 9 years of operating cash went, 2018–2025
170.7M generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 8%13.3M
Acquisitions 0%0
Dividends 0%0
Share buybacks 7%11.1M
Kept, or used to pay down debt 86%146.3M
Over the same years it paid 293.3M in stock. The buybacks did not even cover what was handed out in stock.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$-2.00$-1.00$0.00$1.00$2.00
2018
2019
2020
2020Earnings per share $0.02Free cash flow per share $0.27
2021Earnings per share $-0.34Free cash flow per share $-0.91
2022Earnings per share $-0.61Free cash flow per share $-1.01
2023Earnings per share $-0.27Free cash flow per share $-0.11
2024Earnings per share $0.03Free cash flow per share $1.19
2025Earnings per share $0.14Free cash flow per share $0.70
201820192020202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
50.0M100.0M150.0M200.0M250.0M
2018
2019
2020Diluted shares 51.2M
2020Diluted shares 52.2M
2021Diluted shares 57.4M
2022Diluted shares 63.5M
2023Diluted shares 68.5M
2024Diluted shares 88.4M
2025Diluted shares 236.1M
201820192020202020212022202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
—
Interest coverage
— operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.93 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
— collects in 5d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
5of 8 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✓Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforepassed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
–Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fell — not reportedno data
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✕No new sharesShare count did not growfailed
✕Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforefailed
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
2.78safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.30 × 6.56+1.96
Retained earnings ÷ assets -0.16 × 3.26-0.51
Operating income ÷ assets 0.13 × 6.72+0.89
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.41 × 1.05+0.44
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.98below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 0.87+0.80
Gross margin slipping 1.01+0.53
Soft assets 1.57+0.64
Sales growth 1.23+1.10
Slower depreciation 0.97+0.11
Overheads vs sales 0.77-0.13
Profit not in cash -0.20-0.94
Leverage rising 0.74-0.24
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Capital spending (1M) is well below depreciation (40M).
Benign
Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.
Worrying
Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.
The effective tax rate is -768.2%.
Benign
A favourable geographic mix, or legitimate tax credits.
Worrying
Not sustainable; projecting it forward inflates the valuation.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$40.33discounted at 10.2% a year · 56% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
285.9×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
74.7×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
8.4×
Free cash flow yield
1.4%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today4.2B
Everything after, today5.3B
The whole business9.5B
Minus net debt-0
What belongs to shareholders9.5B
Divided among 236.1M shares: <strong>$40.33</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-500.0M0500.0M1.0B1.5B
2018
2019Reported -16.3M
2020
2020Reported -130.4M
2021Reported -76.9M
2022Reported -83.2M
2023Reported -37.2M
2024Reported 70.2M
2025Reported 138.0M
2026Projected 369.1M
2027Projected 452.2M
2028Projected 542.6M
2029Projected 637.5M
2030Projected 733.2M
2031Projected 824.8M
2032Projected 907.3M
2033Projected 975.4M
2034Projected 1.0B
2035Projected 1.0B
2018202020212023202520272029203120332035
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
1.4B
1.7B
2.1B
2.4B
2.8B
3.2B
3.5B
3.7B
3.9B
4.0B
Growth
25.0%
22.5%
20.0%
17.5%
15.0%
12.5%
10.0%
7.5%
5.0%
2.5%
Cash margin
26.0%
26.0%
26.0%
26.0%
26.0%
26.0%
26.0%
26.0%
26.0%
26.0%
Free cash flow
369.1M
452.2M
542.6M
637.5M
733.2M
824.8M
907.3M
975.4M
1.0B
1.0B
Worth today
335.0M
372.5M
405.8M
432.8M
451.7M
461.3M
460.6M
449.4M
428.3M
398.5M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
9.2%
42
44
47
50
54
9.7%
39
41
43
46
50
10.2%
36
38
40
43
45
10.7%
34
36
38
40
42
11.2%
32
34
35
37
39
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
21.0%
23.0%
25.0%
27.0%
29.0%
20.8%
29
31
34
36
39
23.4%
32
34
37
40
43
26.0%
35
37
40
43
47
28.6%
37
40
44
47
51
31.2%
40
43
47
51
54
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 3.9%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$30.47
Median$40.38
90th percentile$54.65
$40.00$60.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$34.70</b> and <b>$47.08</b>; one in ten below $30.47, one in ten above $54.65.
Does the long run make sense?
31.0×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 31.0 times that year's EBITDA.
Free growthIn year 10 free cash flow is at or above after-tax operating profit, yet the model grows 2.5% forever. Growth needs reinvestment; this assumes it comes for free, which flatters the terminal value.
56%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
What lenders charge, after the tax saving on interest: 6.67% × (1 − 0.0%) = <strong>6.67%</strong>.
Weighted by how much of each the company uses (book value (no price given)): <strong>10.17%</strong>, the rate every future cash flow is discounted at.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 5 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market$29,0251 purchase(s) by 1 insider(s)
Sold on the open market$9.6M8 sale(s) by 3 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans100%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
Sold on the open market · pre-arranged plan· indirect
55,556
$28.02
$1.6M
0
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.
