POOL · Industrials(wholesale-misc durable goods) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Pool Corp reported revenue of $5.3 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 8.3% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from 10.0% in 2016 to 11.0%, and it earned 18.5% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $3.9 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 56.4% went to buybacks and 29.9% to dividends; the share count fell 13.3%. On the accounting screens, it passes 5 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 4.02 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 1 of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 20255.3B+8.3% a year over 9 years
Operating margin11.0%gross margin 29.7%
Return on invested capital18.5%24.5% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay286.8M5.4% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA1.8×net debt 1.1B
Piotroski F-score5/9tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
02.0B4.0B6.0B8.0B
2016Revenue 2.6BOperating income 255.9M
2017Revenue 2.8BOperating income 284.4M
2018Revenue 3.0BOperating income 313.9M
2019Revenue 3.2BOperating income 341.2M
2020Revenue 3.9BOperating income 464.0M
2021Revenue 5.3BOperating income 832.8M
2022Revenue 6.2BOperating income 1.0B
2023Revenue 5.5BOperating income 746.6M
2024Revenue 5.3BOperating income 617.2M
2025Revenue 5.3BOperating income 580.2M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
-5.1%
+6.1%
+8.3%
Operating income
-17.3%
+4.6%
+9.5%
Net income
-18.4%
+2.1%
+11.8%
Earnings per share
-16.6%
+4.0%
+13.6%
Free cash flow per share
-9.2%
-2.0%
+11.8%
Dividend per share
+9.4%
+17.1%
+17.5%
Shares
-2.2%
-1.8%
-1.6%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 7.6%
0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%
2016Return on invested capital 24.5%
2017Return on invested capital 27.2%
2018Return on invested capital 28.2%
2019Return on invested capital 30.5%
2020Return on invested capital 35.7%
2021Return on invested capital 29.1%
2022Return on invested capital 29.7%
2023Return on invested capital 24.0%
2024Return on invested capital 21.3%
2025Return on invested capital 18.5%
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
0200.0M400.0M600.0M
2016Economic profit 108.4M
2017Economic profit 145.5M
2018Economic profit 183.2M
2019Economic profit 210.7M
2020Economic profit 296.1M
2021Economic profit 485.6M
2022Economic profit 579.7M
2023Economic profit 387.4M
2024Economic profit 303.4M
2025Economic profit 260.5M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
34.3%
Return on assets
11.2%
Asset turnover
1.46×
Overheads (SG&A)
18.8% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
0250.0M500.0M750.0M1.0B
2016Net income 149.0MFree cash flow 131.0MAfter stock-based pay 121.1M
2017Net income 191.6MFree cash flow 135.9MAfter stock-based pay 123.4M
2018Net income 234.5MFree cash flow 87.1MAfter stock-based pay 74.2M
2019Net income 261.6MFree cash flow 265.4MAfter stock-based pay 251.9M
2020Net income 366.7MFree cash flow 375.9MAfter stock-based pay 361.4M
2021Net income 650.6MFree cash flow 275.8MAfter stock-based pay 260.6M
2022Net income 748.5MFree cash flow 441.2MAfter stock-based pay 426.4M
2023Net income 523.2MFree cash flow 828.1MAfter stock-based pay 808.6M
2024Net income 434.3MFree cash flow 599.7MAfter stock-based pay 580.5M
2025Net income 406.4MFree cash flow 309.5MAfter stock-based pay 286.8M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025
3.9B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 11%417.6M
Acquisitions 26%1.0B
Dividends 30%1.2B
Share buybacks 56%2.2B
More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -23%-901.8M
Over the same years it paid 154.9M in stock. The share count fell 13.3%. 2.0B of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$0.00$10.00$20.00$30.00
2016Earnings per share $3.47Free cash flow per share $3.05Dividend per share $1.16
2017Earnings per share $4.51Free cash flow per share $3.20Dividend per share $1.37
2018Earnings per share $5.62Free cash flow per share $2.09Dividend per share $1.67
2019Earnings per share $6.40Free cash flow per share $6.49Dividend per share $2.05
2020Earnings per share $8.97Free cash flow per share $9.20Dividend per share $2.25
2021Earnings per share $16.07Free cash flow per share $6.81Dividend per share $2.95
2022Earnings per share $18.80Free cash flow per share $11.08Dividend per share $3.78
2023Earnings per share $13.42Free cash flow per share $21.24Dividend per share $4.29
2024Earnings per share $11.36Free cash flow per share $15.69Dividend per share $4.70
2025Earnings per share $10.90Free cash flow per share $8.30Dividend per share $4.96
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
36.0M38.0M40.0M42.0M44.0M
2016Diluted shares 43.0M
2017Diluted shares 42.4M
2018Diluted shares 41.7M
2019Diluted shares 40.9M
2020Diluted shares 40.9M
2021Diluted shares 40.5M
2022Diluted shares 39.8M
2023Diluted shares 39.0M
2024Diluted shares 38.2M
2025Diluted shares 37.3M
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
0500.0M1.0B1.5B
2016Net debt 416.1M
2017Net debt 489.7M
2018Net debt 650.4M
2019Net debt 482.8M
2020Net debt 381.9M
2021Net debt 1.2B
2022Net debt 1.3B
2023Net debt 986.8M
2024Net debt 872.5M
2025Net debt 1.1B
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
1.8×
Interest coverage
— operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
2.24 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
88 days collects in 9d, stock 143d, pays in 64d
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
5of 9 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✕Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)failed
✕Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellfailed
✓More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforepassed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
✓Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforepassed
✕Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforefailed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
4.02safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.30 × 6.56+1.97
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.14 × 3.26+0.47
Operating income ÷ assets 0.16 × 6.72+1.08
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.49 × 1.05+0.51
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
-2.34below the -1.78 line
-1.78
Receivables vs sales 1.18+1.09
Gross margin slipping 1.00+0.53
Soft assets 0.93+0.38
Sales growth 1.00+0.89
Slower depreciation 0.93+0.11
Overheads vs sales 1.04-0.18
Profit not in cash 0.01+0.05
Leverage rising 1.10-0.36
Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
Receivables are growing 17% against revenue growing -0%.
Benign
A shift towards larger customers on longer terms, or sales concentrated at the end of the period.
Worrying
Sales are being made on looser credit, or revenue has been booked that may never be collected.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$324.85discounted at 7.6% a year · 63% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
29.8×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
21.2×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
2.5×
Free cash flow yield
2.4%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today4.9B
Everything after, today8.3B
The whole business13.2B
Minus net debt-1.1B
What belongs to shareholders12.1B
Divided among 37.3M shares: <strong>$324.85</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
0250.0M500.0M750.0M1.0B
2016Reported 121.1M
2017Reported 123.4M
2018Reported 74.2M
2019Reported 251.9M
2020Reported 361.4M
2021Reported 260.6M
2022Reported 426.4M
2023Reported 808.6M
2024Reported 580.5M
2025Reported 286.8M
2026Projected 600.9M
2027Projected 634.6M
2028Projected 667.8M
2029Projected 700.1M
2030Projected 731.2M
2031Projected 760.8M
2032Projected 788.7M
2033Projected 814.6M
2034Projected 838.1M
2035Projected 859.1M
2016201820202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
5.6B
5.9B
6.2B
6.5B
6.8B
7.1B
7.4B
7.6B
7.8B
8.0B
Growth
6.0%
5.6%
5.2%
4.8%
4.4%
4.1%
3.7%
3.3%
2.9%
2.5%
Cash margin
10.7%
10.7%
10.7%
10.7%
10.7%
10.7%
10.7%
10.7%
10.7%
10.7%
Free cash flow
600.9M
634.6M
667.8M
700.1M
731.2M
760.8M
788.7M
814.6M
838.1M
859.1M
Worth today
558.4M
548.1M
535.9M
522.1M
506.7M
490.0M
472.0M
453.0M
433.1M
412.6M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
6.6%
337
371
413
466
536
7.1%
304
331
364
405
457
7.6%
276
298
325
357
397
8.1%
252
271
293
319
351
8.6%
232
248
266
287
313
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
8.6%
221
243
267
292
320
9.7%
245
269
296
324
355
10.7%
269
296
325
356
390
11.8%
293
322
354
388
425
12.9%
317
349
383
420
460
All the inputs moving at once
4,998 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$219.05
Median$324.60
90th percentile$505.34
$200.00$400.00$600.00$800.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$264.22</b> and <b>$405.36</b>; one in ten below $219.05, one in ten above $505.34.
Does the long run make sense?
18.3×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 18.3 times that year's EBITDA.
Free growthIn year 10 free cash flow is at or above after-tax operating profit, yet the model grows 2.5% forever. Growth needs reinvestment; this assumes it comes for free, which flatters the terminal value.
63%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 3 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market$3.8M3 purchase(s) by 2 insider(s)
Sold on the open market—none in the period
Under pre-arranged plans—of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.