PODD · Health care(surgical & medical instruments & apparatus) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31
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Insulet Corp reported revenue of $2.7 billion in fiscal 2025, after growing 21.7% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin widened from -1.6% in 2017 to 17.5%, and it earned 22.5% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $1.5 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 79.1% went back into the business; the share count rose 23.9%. On the accounting screens, it passes 7 of 9 Piotroski tests and its Altman Z'' of 4.78 is in the safe zone; none of the six cross-checks between its statements fires.
Revenue, fiscal 20252.7B+21.7% a year over 9 years
Operating margin17.5%gross margin 71.6%
Return on invested capital22.5%14.1% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay315.0M11.6% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDANet cash697.7M more cash than debt
Piotroski F-score7/9tests of improvement passed
Is it growing?
Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.
RevenueOperating income
-1.0B01.0B2.0B3.0B
2017Revenue 463.8MOperating income -7.4M
2018
2018Revenue 563.8MOperating income 27.4M
2019Revenue 738.2MOperating income 50.0M
2020Revenue 904.4MOperating income 51.5M
2021Revenue 1.0BOperating income 126.0M
2022Revenue 1.1BOperating income 37.6M
2023Revenue 1.7BOperating income 220.1M
2024Revenue 2.1BOperating income 308.9M
2025Revenue 2.7BOperating income 473.8M
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Compound growth a year
3 yrs
5 yrs
9 yrs
Revenue
+36.9%
+24.5%
+21.7%
Operating income
+132.7%
+55.9%
—
Net income
+277.3%
+105.2%
—
Earnings per share
+273.8%
+101.6%
—
Shares
+0.9%
+1.7%
+2.4%
Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.
Does it earn more than its capital costs?
Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.
Return on invested capitalCost of capital today · 10.2%
-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%
2017Return on invested capital -1.0%
2018
2018Return on invested capital 2.2%
2019Return on invested capital 4.2%
2020Return on invested capital 2.2%
2021Return on invested capital 5.6%
2022Return on invested capital 0.9%
2023Return on invested capital 27.1%
2024Return on invested capital 14.5%
2025Return on invested capital 22.5%
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Economic profit
Economic profit
-200.0M-100.0M0100.0M200.0M
2017Economic profit -81.1M
2018
2018Economic profit -64.3M
2019Economic profit -58.0M
2020Economic profit -132.9M
2021Economic profit -82.7M
2022Economic profit -173.2M
2023Economic profit 132.1M
2024Economic profit 55.7M
2025Economic profit 189.0M
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
(return on capital − cost of capital) × capital invested: the profit left after paying for the money used. Today's cost of capital is applied to every year, since a past one cannot be rebuilt honestly.
Return on equity
16.3%
Return on assets
7.7%
Asset turnover
0.85×
Research & development
11.1% of revenue
Overheads (SG&A)
43.0% of revenue
Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?
Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.
Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay
-400.0M-200.0M0200.0M400.0M600.0M
2017Net income -26.8MFree cash flow -32.5MAfter stock-based pay -64.4M
2018
2018Net income 3.3MFree cash flow -121.5MAfter stock-based pay -159.0M
2019Net income 11.6MFree cash flow -65.3MAfter stock-based pay -94.0M
2020Net income 6.8MFree cash flow -45.0MAfter stock-based pay -80.9M
2021Net income 16.8MFree cash flow -180.0MAfter stock-based pay -214.4M
2022Net income 4.6MFree cash flow -3.9MAfter stock-based pay -44.8M
2023Net income 206.3MFree cash flow 70.1MAfter stock-based pay 21.7M
2024Net income 418.3MFree cash flow 305.3MAfter stock-based pay 236.0M
2025Net income 247.1MFree cash flow 377.7MAfter stock-based pay 315.0M
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2017–2025
1.5B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.
Reinvested in the business 79%1.2B
Acquisitions 0%0
Dividends 0%0
Share buybacks 4%59.6M
Kept, or used to pay down debt 17%245.3M
Over the same years it paid 389.7M in stock. The share count rose 23.9%. The buybacks did not even cover what was handed out in stock.
Per share
Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share
$-5.00$-2.50$0.00$2.50$5.00$7.50
2017Earnings per share $-0.46Free cash flow per share $-0.56
2018
2018Earnings per share $0.05Free cash flow per share $-1.99
2019Earnings per share $0.19Free cash flow per share $-1.05
2020Earnings per share $0.10Free cash flow per share $-0.68
2021Earnings per share $0.24Free cash flow per share $-2.62
2022Earnings per share $0.07Free cash flow per share $-0.06
2023Earnings per share $2.80Free cash flow per share $0.95
2024Earnings per share $5.66Free cash flow per share $4.13
2025Earnings per share $3.44Free cash flow per share $5.25
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Shares outstanding
Diluted shares
55.0M60.0M65.0M70.0M75.0M
2017Diluted shares 58.0M
2018
2018Diluted shares 61.0M
2019Diluted shares 62.3M
2020Diluted shares 65.9M
2021Diluted shares 68.6M
2022Diluted shares 69.9M
2023Diluted shares 73.6M
2024Diluted shares 73.9M
2025Diluted shares 71.9M
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
How strong is the balance sheet?
Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.
Net debt
-1.0B-500.0M0500.0M1.0B
2017Net debt 293.6M
2018
2018Net debt 478.1M
2019Net debt 674.2M
2020Net debt 152.1M
2021Net debt 467.5M
2022Net debt 712.0M
2023Net debt -654.8M
2024Net debt -869.6M
2025Net debt -697.7M
2017201820182019202020212022202320242025
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
-1.2×
Interest coverage
8× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
2.81 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
—
Three classic screens of the accounts
Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.
Piotroski F-score
Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.
7of 9 tests passed
✓ProfitableReturn on assets above zeropassed
✓Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zeropassed
✕Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year beforefailed
✓Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals)passed
✓Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fellpassed
✕More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year beforefailed
✓No new sharesShare count did not growpassed
✓Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year beforepassed
✓Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year beforepassed
Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.
Altman Z''-score
Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?
4.78safe zone
1.12.6
Working capital ÷ assets 0.39 × 6.56+2.54
Retained earnings ÷ assets 0.09 × 3.26+0.29
Operating income ÷ assets 0.15 × 6.72+1.00
Equity ÷ liabilities 0.90 × 1.05+0.95
Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.
Beneish M-score
Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?
The accounts lack too many of the lines it needs.
Where the statements disagree
Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.
None of the six cross-checks fires for the latest year: receivables and inventory move with revenue, profit turns into cash, investment keeps up with depreciation, the tax rate is ordinary and debt is moderate.
What is it worth, under which assumptions?
A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.
Value per share, with these assumptions$100.84discounted at 10.2% a year · 56% of it from after year 10
Type a share price on the left to ask the reverse questions: what growth, what margin or what discount rate that price implies.
What the value implies, in the usual multiples
At this model's value
Price ÷ earnings
29.3×
Enterprise value ÷ EBITDA
11.6×
Enterprise value ÷ revenue
2.4×
Free cash flow yield
4.3%
From cash flows to a value per share
10 years of cash flow, today2.9B
Everything after, today3.7B
The whole business6.6B
Plus net cash697.7M
What belongs to shareholders7.2B
Divided among 71.9M shares: <strong>$100.84</strong> each.
The projection next to its history
Reported free cash flow after stock pay, then the model's. A projection that looks nothing like the past needs a reason.
ReportedProjected
-250.0M0250.0M500.0M750.0M
2017Reported -64.4M
2018
2018Reported -159.0M
2019Reported -94.0M
2020Reported -80.9M
2021Reported -214.4M
2022Reported -44.8M
2023Reported 21.7M
2024Reported 236.0M
2025Reported 315.0M
2026Projected 257.5M
2027Projected 314.3M
2028Projected 375.9M
2029Projected 440.4M
2030Projected 505.3M
2031Projected 567.3M
2032Projected 623.1M
2033Projected 669.1M
2034Projected 702.2M
2035Projected 719.8M
2017201820202022202420262028203020322034
Year by year
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
Revenue
3.4B
4.1B
4.9B
5.8B
6.6B
7.4B
8.2B
8.8B
9.2B
9.4B
Growth
24.5%
22.1%
19.6%
17.2%
14.7%
12.3%
9.8%
7.4%
4.9%
2.5%
Cash margin
7.6%
7.6%
7.6%
7.6%
7.6%
7.6%
7.6%
7.6%
7.6%
7.6%
Free cash flow
257.5M
314.3M
375.9M
440.4M
505.3M
567.3M
623.1M
669.1M
702.2M
719.8M
Worth today
233.7M
259.0M
281.2M
299.0M
311.4M
317.4M
316.4M
308.5M
293.9M
273.4M
If the least-known inputs move
Value per share as two inputs change at a time. Neighbouring cells that differ a lot are the conclusion: the value depends on numbers nobody knows to a point.
The discount rate and growth forever
discount ↓ · forever →
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
9.2%
104
110
116
124
133
9.7%
98
102
108
114
122
10.2%
92
96
101
106
112
10.7%
87
90
95
99
105
11.2%
82
85
89
93
98
Year-one growth and the final margin
margin ↓ · growth →
20.5%
22.5%
24.5%
26.5%
28.5%
6.1%
76
81
86
92
98
6.9%
82
87
93
100
107
7.6%
88
94
101
108
116
8.4%
94
101
108
116
124
9.2%
100
108
116
124
133
All the inputs moving at once
5,000 valuations, each with growth, final margin, discount rate and growth forever drawn at random around the values on the left (spreads of 3.0%, 2.0%, 1.0% and 0.5%). Not a probability — the spreads are assumptions too — but an honest picture of how wide the answer is.
10th percentile$71.81
Median$100.89
90th percentile$140.32
$100.00$150.00
Half of the simulations land between <b>$84.86</b> and <b>$119.77</b>; one in ten below $71.81, one in ten above $140.32.
Does the long run make sense?
4.9×The terminal value prices the business in year 10 at 4.9 times that year's EBITDA.
6%To grow 2.5% forever while reinvesting 40% of its after-tax operating profit, the business must earn 6% on the new capital — it has earned 14% on average over the last five years.
56%of the value comes from after year 10. The more of it, the more the answer depends on the part nobody can see.
What lenders charge, after the tax saving on interest: 13.17% × (1 − 27.2%) = <strong>9.59%</strong>.
Weighted by how much of each the company uses (book value (no price given)): <strong>10.16%</strong>, the rate every future cash flow is discounted at.
What it has filed lately
The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.
Every Form 4 filed in the last twelve months, read line by line: 6 filings by 6 people. Open-market purchases and sales are counted apart from awards, option exercises and shares withheld for taxes.
Bought on the open market$562,6102 purchase(s) by 2 insider(s)
Sold on the open market$59,8871 sale(s) by 1 insider(s)
Under pre-arranged plans0%of the sales followed a 10b5-1 plan set months earlier
A Form 4 says what happened, when, how many shares and at what price. It does not say why: a sale can be diversification, a tax bill or a plan fixed months earlier, and an award is pay, not a purchase. Nothing here is a reason to buy or sell anything.
Which large funds report holding it
From the Form 13F of the 28 institutions followed on this site, as of the end of their last reported quarter. A 13F is filed up to 45 days later and shows only long positions in US-listed shares.
Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.