SphinxRisk

3M Co

MMM · Health care (surgical & medical instruments & apparatus) · 10 years of annual accounts filed with the SEC · latest fiscal year ended 2025-12-31

3M Co reported revenue of $24.9 billion in fiscal 2025, after shrinking 2.1% a year over the previous 9 years. Its operating margin narrowed from 23.3% in 2016 to 18.6%, and it earned 20.4% on its invested capital in the latest year. Of the $58.4 billion its operations generated over 10 years, 49.7% went to dividends and 36.3% to buybacks; the share count fell 12.5%. On the accounting screens, it passes 5 of 9 Piotroski tests, its Altman Z'' of 5.46 is in the safe zone and its Beneish M-score is below the -1.78 line; 2 of the six cross-checks between its statements fire.

Revenue, fiscal 2025 24.9B -2.1% a year over 9 years
Operating margin 18.6% gross margin 39.9%
Return on invested capital 20.4% 1.2% on average over 5 years
Free cash flow after stock pay 1.2B 4.7% of revenue
Net debt ÷ EBITDA 1.2× net debt 7.4B
Piotroski F-score 5/9 tests of improvement passed

Is it growing?

Revenue and the operating income it turns into. Growth that does not reach operating income is growth bought with margin.

RevenueOperating income
Compound growth a year
3 yrs5 yrs9 yrs
Revenue-1.6%-5.0%-2.1%
Operating income+1.9%-8.4%-4.5%
Net income-17.4%-9.8%-4.8%
Earnings per share-16.1%-8.5%-3.4%
Free cash flow per share-27.5%-25.7%-12.4%
Dividend per share-21.4%-13.1%-4.4%
Shares-1.6%-1.4%-1.5%

Falling shares are buybacks: each remaining share owns more of the company.

Does it earn more than its capital costs?

Margins say how much of each sale is kept; return on invested capital says how much the business earns on the money it needs to operate. Growth only creates value when that return is above the cost of the capital.

GrossOperatingNetFree cash flow

Return on invested capital

Return on invested capital

Economic profit

Needs a cost of capital, which comes from the valuation below.

Return on equity
69.1%
Return on assets
8.6%
Asset turnover
0.66×
Overheads (SG&A)
16.0% of revenue

Is the profit cash, and where does the cash go?

Net income is an accounting opinion; free cash flow is what was left in the bank after investing. Stock-based pay does not leave the bank — shareholders pay it through dilution — so it is shown taken off as well.

Net incomeFree cash flowAfter stock-based pay

Where 10 years of operating cash went, 2016–2025

58.4B generated by the business. Each band is its share of that total.

  • Reinvested in the business 25% 14.6B
  • Acquisitions 12% 7.1B
  • Dividends 50% 29.0B
  • Share buybacks 36% 21.2B
  • More than it generated: funded with cash or new debt -23% -13.6B

Over the same years it paid 2.8B in stock. The share count fell 12.5%. 18.4B of the buybacks went beyond offsetting that dilution.

Per share

Earnings per shareFree cash flow per shareDividend per share

Shares outstanding

Diluted shares

How strong is the balance sheet?

Debt is not bad in itself; debt the business cannot service in a bad year is. Net debt is debt minus cash, and below zero the company holds more cash than it owes.

Net debt
Net debt ÷ EBITDA
1.2×
Interest coverage
10× operating income ÷ interest
Current ratio
1.71 current assets ÷ current liabilities
Cash conversion cycle
75 days collects in 52d, stock 89d, pays in 66d

Three classic screens of the accounts

Each asks a different question of the same statements — is it improving, does it look like a company heading for distress, do the accounts resemble ones that were manipulated. None is a verdict; each shows what moves it.

Piotroski F-score

Is the business improving? Nine yes-or-no tests, this year against last.

5of 9 tests passed
  • ProfitableReturn on assets above zero passed
  • Cash from operationsOperating cash flow above zero passed
  • Profitability improvedReturn on assets higher than a year before failed
  • Profit backed by cashOperating cash flow above net income (low accruals) failed
  • Less long-term debtLong-term debt as a share of assets fell failed
  • More liquidCurrent ratio higher than a year before passed
  • No new sharesShare count did not grow passed
  • Better gross marginGross margin higher than a year before failed
  • Sells more per assetAsset turnover higher than a year before passed

Where it misleads: it measures change, not level. An excellent business that stood still for a year scores low; a poor one recovering from a disaster scores high.

Altman Z''-score

Does the balance sheet look like those of companies that went bankrupt?

5.46safe zone
  • Working capital ÷ assets 0.18 × 6.56+1.18
  • Retained earnings ÷ assets 1.01 × 3.26+3.31
  • Operating income ÷ assets 0.12 × 6.72+0.82
  • Equity ÷ liabilities 0.14 × 1.05+0.15

Where it misleads: buybacks. A company that returns so much cash that its equity turns small or negative sinks the last two ratios without being anywhere near bankruptcy. Banks and insurers do not fit the model at all.

Beneish M-score

Do the accounts resemble those of companies that manipulated their earnings?

-2.27below the -1.78 line
  • Receivables vs sales 1.09+1.00
  • Gross margin slipping 1.03+0.55
  • Soft assets 0.91+0.37
  • Sales growth 1.02+0.91
  • Slower depreciation 1.00+0.12
  • Overheads vs sales 0.93-0.16
  • Profit not in cash 0.03+0.12
  • Leverage rising 0.97-0.32

Where it misleads: fast growth and acquisitions. Sales growth carries a heavy weight, so a company growing 50% a year scores like a suspect without having done anything. It is a screen from a 1999 study, not an accusation.

Where the statements disagree

Cross-checks between the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow for the latest year, each with the benign reading and the worrying one.

Reported profit comfortably exceeds the cash generated (3,250M against 2,306M).

Benign

Growth consuming working capital, or the seasonality of the year-end.

Worrying

Profit held up by accounting entries that do not turn into money.

Capital spending (910M) is well below depreciation (1,308M).

Benign

Mature assets, or a business that has become less capital-intensive.

Worrying

Under-investing: today's profit is being held up by consuming tomorrow's capacity.

What is it worth, under which assumptions?

A company is worth the cash it will generate, brought back to today. This model projects revenue with growth that fades over the years, applies a free cash flow margin, and discounts the result at the cost of capital. Every assumption says where it came from, and all of them can be changed.

Revenue
M $

revenue of fiscal 2025

%

revenue grew -5.0% a year over the last 5 years; it fades to the terminal rate by the last year

yrs

ten years for growth to fade to the terminal rate

Cash from each sale
%

free cash flow to the firm after stock-based pay ÷ revenue, last 3 fiscal years together

%

the margin in year ten; by default the business keeps today's

The long run
%

growth forever after year ten, below the risk-free rate: no company outgrows the economy forever

The discount rate
%

10-year US Treasury yield (FRED, DGS10), 2026-09-24

not measured on this public page, which uses only public filings: 1.0 assumes it moves like the market. Sign in to measure it from prices

%

the extra return demanded for holding shares; it cannot be measured, and 4–6% is the common range

%

interest expense ÷ debt = 3.6%, kept between the risk-free rate and +8 points

%

effective rate in the last fiscal year, 23.8%, kept within 0–35%

The price
$

Type the price you see at your broker. It is used only for the reverse questions: what that price implies.

Back to the defaults

SEC from the filings Treasury the 10-year yield measured from prices assumption cannot be measured yours you changed it

With a free cash flow margin at or below zero in year ten, the business never generates cash for its owners and a DCF says nothing useful. Set a positive margin for year ten to see what it would take.

What it has filed lately

The last twelve months at the SEC, most important first: annual and quarterly reports, events, large holders and insiders.

Companies like this one

Same SEC industry (surgical & medical instruments & apparatus) first, then the rest of health care.

Every figure, year by year

10 fiscal years · 30 measures
2016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Size
Revenue30.1B31.7B32.8B32.1B32.2B35.4B26.2B24.6B24.6B24.9B
Revenue growth—+5.1%+3.5%-1.9%+0.1%+9.9%-26.0%-5.9%-0.1%+1.5%
Operating income7.0B7.7B7.2B6.2B7.2B7.4B4.4B-10.7B4.8B4.6B
Net income5.0B4.9B5.3B4.5B5.4B5.9B5.8B-7.0B4.2B3.2B
Margins
Gross margin49.8%49.3%49.1%46.7%48.4%46.8%39.4%39.1%41.2%39.9%
Operating margin23.3%24.3%22.0%19.2%22.3%20.8%16.7%-43.4%19.6%18.6%
Net margin16.8%15.3%16.3%14.1%16.9%16.7%22.1%-28.4%17.0%13.0%
Free cash flow margin17.4%15.4%14.8%16.7%20.5%16.5%14.7%20.6%2.6%5.6%
R&D ÷ revenue4.1%4.3%3.8%3.9%3.4%3.4%3.1%2.8%2.8%—
SG&A ÷ revenue21.0%20.9%23.2%21.9%21.5%20.4%27.6%78.0%17.2%16.0%
Cash
Free cash flow5.2B4.9B4.9B5.4B6.6B5.9B3.8B5.1B638.0M1.4B
Stock-based pay298.0M324.0M302.0M278.0M262.0M274.0M263.0M274.0M289.0M225.0M
Free cash flow after stock pay4.9B4.5B4.6B5.1B6.3B5.6B3.6B4.8B349.0M1.2B
Free cash flow to the firm5.1B4.1B5.3B5.3B6.5B6.1B4.2B-11.1B4.7B3.7B
Free cash flow ÷ net income1.0×1.0×0.9×1.2×1.2×1.0×0.7×-0.7×0.2×0.4×
Capex ÷ revenue4.7%4.3%4.8%5.3%4.7%4.5%6.7%6.6%4.8%3.6%
Returns
Return on invested capital23.0%19.4%22.6%16.4%18.2%18.7%13.6%-70.4%23.8%20.4%
Return on equity49.0%42.0%54.6%44.9%42.3%39.4%39.2%-145.5%108.6%69.1%
Return on assets15.3%12.8%14.7%10.1%11.5%12.6%12.4%-13.8%10.5%8.6%
Asset turnover0.9×0.8×0.9×0.7×0.7×0.8×0.6×0.5×0.6×0.7×
Economic profit——————————
Per share
Earnings per share$8.16$7.93$8.89$7.72$9.36$10.12$10.18$-12.63$7.55$6.00
Free cash flow per share$8.47$7.94$8.08$9.18$11.36$10.00$6.77$9.14$1.15$2.58
Dividend per share$4.33$4.57$5.30$5.67$5.82$5.84$5.94$5.98$3.59$2.89
Payout ratio53.0%57.7%59.7%73.4%62.2%57.8%58.3%—47.5%48.1%
Book value per share$17.26$19.44$16.99$17.50$22.27$26.31$26.80$8.70$7.12$8.87
Diluted shares618.7M612.7M602.0M585.1M582.2M585.3M567.6M553.9M552.4M541.3M
Balance sheet
Net debt9.3B10.9B11.8B20.3B14.1B12.8B12.3B8.3B7.4B7.4B
Net debt ÷ EBITDA1.1×1.2×1.4×2.6×1.6×1.4×2.0×-1.0×1.2×1.2×
Interest coverage35.3×23.9×20.6×13.8×13.5×15.1×9.5×-11.3×10.2×10.3×
Current ratio1.9×1.9×1.9×1.4×1.9×1.7×1.5×1.1×1.4×1.7×
Cash conversion cycle (days)92104102959087114827475
Scores
Piotroski F-score—574864475
Altman Z''6.776.326.504.865.405.615.211.254.705.46
Beneish M—-2.54-2.65-2.65-2.78-2.61-2.34-4.28-2.25-2.27

Accounts from the company's own SEC filings; lines some companies do not report are shown as a dash rather than estimated. The risk-free rate is the 10-year US Treasury yield. A DCF is a way of making assumptions explicit, not a forecast: it states what the company would be worth if the assumptions held. The scores are screens that point where to look, not verdicts. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.